AH.com Challange: Get Liberia to request annexation as a US State.

hmmm, WI after the recent Liberian CW in 1996, when the Liberian ppl, sick & tired of the ravages of war under Charles Taylor & the NPFL & the alphabet soup of other murdering factions, request to become a US state ? In a similar manner as how Sierra Leoneans in 2000 were wanting to become a British colony again in the aftermath of the depradations of their CW.
 
hmmm, WI after the recent Liberian CW in 1996, when the Liberian ppl, sick & tired of the ravages of war under Charles Taylor & the NPFL & the alphabet soup of other murdering factions, request to become a US state ? In a similar manner as how Sierra Leoneans in 2000 were wanting to become a British colony again in the aftermath of the depradations of their CW.

Not going to happen. Liberia might request annexation, but there's no way in hell the US is going to accept.

A bit better would be to keep close US-Liberian relations after Liberia is founded. Eventually, they ask to be formally annexed to help avoid colonization or whatever, US accepts, and later on it becomes a state (probably relatively recently; there's no way someone in the 1920s, for example, is going to want a state that's basically pure blacks).
 
Here's my time line for it, including a set of poorly done maps. :D Red is loyalist controlled territory. Blue is USA.

April 12, 1980- William R. Tolbert Jr, president of Liberia, decides to make a surprise appearance at a local playhouse. The attempted military coup, which featured a night raid on his mansion home, fails to capture him. William flees to a secret location.

April 13, 1980- With Tolbert having seemingly fled the coup is declared successful and Samuel Kanyon Doe is declared the new president of Liberia.

April 21, 1980- Tolbert reemerges along with a loyal portion of the army. In his 'Loyalist Uprising' Tolbert's forces seize the Southern portion of Liberia, including the cities of Nyaake and Harper

April & May 1980- Following the surprise attack the Loyalists gain the upper hand, they make some small gains moving directly North along the coast, nearly reaching Greensville, as well as to the East, shielded by the Putu mountain range.
map1-1.jpg


June-August 1980- The Rebels, aka the supporters of the military coup, launch a counter offensive, driving loyalist troops away from Greenville and forcing them east. By this time it has become clear that the loyalists are heavily outnumbered.

September 1980- The rebels surprise the loyalists by launching the 'September Offensive' retaking the loyalist gains east of the Putu range.

October 1980- The rebel advance is slowed to a grinding halt just north of Nyaake. The loyalists heavily entrench themselves. William R. Tolbert Jr, having increased good relations with the Eastern bloc begins speaking to Warsaw members asking them for support.
Map2.jpg


November & December 1980- The Soviets, hoping to secure an new ally in Africa, begin shipping arms to the loyalists. With the Soviet help the loyalists are able to withstand any further advances. Tolbert appeals to the Soviets to send troops but the Soviet Union refuses, citing the distance between the two as their reason.

January 22, 1981- Stunning many people around the world, in his first major action as president Reagen sends troops in to aid to loyalists, whom he feared would turn into soviet allies if they won. They land in a surprise assault, taking the capital of Monrovia.

February 28 1981- By this time the USA has secured much of the land around the capital, forcing the rebels into a true two front war. The loyalists are also able to make advances with the rebels distracted.
Map3.jpg


March-June 1981- Loyalists and USA continue to advance, with the rebels unable to stop them. The rebels are on the verge of collapse.

July 7, 1981- Samuel Kanyon Doe is overthrown by his military, which then proceeds to surrender, ending the brief Liberian civil war.

September 5, 1981- The Liberian government, feeling it had secured the country, requests US troops to leave, they do so. A new high has been reached in relations between the two countries and Liberia seems to have been secured as a permanent US ally.

November 18, 1981- A series of terrorist car bombings rip through Monrovia. Hundreds are killed. A group calling itself the Liberian Liberation Army (LLA) claims responsibility. President Tolbert claims it to be an isolated assault.

January 1, 1982- New Years celebrations across Liberia become the new target of the LLA, who kill many innocent civilians in their attacks.

February-May 1982- The attacks become more and more common as the LLA gains support and momentum. Tolbert grows increasingly unpopular.

June 6, 1982- Tolbert is impeached, the country falls onto the verge of civil war. Attacks break out across the country and many fear a renewal of the war, after such a short peace.

June 11, 1982- At the request of the acting government of Liberia US troops return to secure the situation. It is clear by this point that Liberia is entirely dependent on the USA.

July 2, 1982- Work begins on establishing an independent government in Liberia.

August 14, 1982- Reagen announces, famously, that the talks are over. A new government is established in Liberia, but US troops remain.

August-December 1982- The new government grows increasingly unpopular due to infighting and continued reliance upon the United States.

February 9, 1983- The government of Liberia collapses, the country again falls to the verge of civil war and again it is only the USA that keeps it from happening.

February 15, 1983- Realizing that a independent government is entirely impossible at this point, Reagen and the leaders of Liberia announce Liberia is to become a protectorate of the USA.

February-December 1983- The USA does much work to improve Liberia and they become relatively popular among the citizens of the USA.

January 1984-May 1984- As the USA gets in full election swing the USA continues work in Liberia, although to a slightly smaller degree.

June 1984- Realizing that they are behind in the polls Democrats begin attacking Reagen on the issue of Liberia, calling him a dictator and claiming he is illegally occupying the country against the will of the majority.

July-August 1984- The issue reaches a crisis point, threatening to cause Reagen to loose his bid for reelection. Thus Reagen announces that there will be a referendum in Liberia over the issue on election day. The choices were to be independent, current status, or to become a US state.

November 4, 1984- Reagen solidly wins reelection. In Liberia, though, the vote is a stunner. It seems that pro-US supporters had united behind statehood. The final referendum stood at: Independence 40%, Remain as Protectorate 9%, Become US State 51%

51starflag.jpg

51 star US flag adopted after Liberia joins USA.
 
Well, it makes sense to me. Can anyone else find any flaws with the timeline?

Several.

The fact that Liberia goes from independent to protectorate to state within the course of two years. It's sort of ridiculous. There have been efforts made for over over 40 years to turn Puerto Rico into a state, or at least have some sort of actual vote (the last vote was held in 1967).

Post First Civil War Liberia was poor as shit OTL. Presumably, there will be the same sort of damages in this civil war, particularly since the US is involved, and we like to use our big shiny weapons that level whole city blocks. Either way, Liberia didn't have nearly as strong an economy as the average US state. Now, I'm not saying we can't have a poor state, but it's unlikely Liberia would be admitted. This is actually one of the reasons there hasn't been a stronger push to allow Puerto Rico statehood.

I don't think 51% of the people would support statehood. There are a lot of benefits to be gained as a protectorate, and while they'd gain more advantages from statehood, they'd lose their independence. This is not something to ignore; a lot of people who want the benefits from American protection are going to vote for protectorate, not statehood, because they're not going to want to give up independence. It's something that I could see happening over time, as Liberian and American relations get nice and cozy, but Liberia lacks a (recent) history of such close ties with America. People need time to get used to the idea.
 
The single greatest objection is that Congress will weigh in on the referendum before it happens. There will be huge objections, as there will be pressure for Congress to pledge to abide by the results, which means that you have to get them on-board with admitting a West African state to the union.

Putting that (titanic) issue aside, Liberia has voted to become a state, now Congress has to figure out whether to accept or not. Presumably, though, they couldn't hold the referendum unless Congress at least pledged to uphold the result. Nonetheless, there's going to be some substantial resistance to the notion of formally admitting Liberia. I can see some Senators trying to hide behind the "republican government clause" in an attempt to deny Liberia's admission.

If, however, the US accepts, it all of a sudden has a border in Africa that it needs to defend. It has a substantial black Muslim population (20% according to Wiki). Moreover, all of these people can now freely immigrate to the US. This will have a huge impact in terms of illegal immigration (potentially): while distance is certainly a factor, the incentives for refugees from the surrounding countries to cross the Liberian border and then get into the continental US will be huge. And of course, the US now has to be concerned about the stability of West Africa, much more so than it was/is OTL.

And then there's the Soviet reaction. They're still in Afghanistan, after all. Might they try harder to stay if the US is annexing parts of West Africa? At the very least diplomatic interactions will change, perhaps altering the Reykjavik Summit. Perhaps if Gorbachev can appear to be taking a hard line against Reagan, but opening up domestically, the USSR has a chance to hold together and glasnost and perestroika could work (i.e. not precipitate the "fall" of communism, but rather make the USSR a more democratic state).

Oh, and Puerto Rico is going to react quite strongly. They're going to have huge opinions about LIBERIA becoming a state while they remain a commonwealth. This may prompt them to take a different path in a new referendum on their status. And of course, DC will also react badly to the notion of Liberia getting Congressmen, but having none itself. Hell, American Samoa, Guam -- all the sundry US protectorates and territories might decide to press for statehood, on the theory that if Liberia gets to be state, they should too.
 
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If there was a chance of accepting I bet you'd see half of Africa asking for the same.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
The US has enough illegal immigration on its Mexican border and from Cuba.
I don't think they would accept another border with third world countries.

Have you never seen pictures from africans rushing on Spanish exclaves like Ceuta?

This would be a lot bigger.

There won't be US terretorry with US citizens in Africa, it just won't happen!
 
Hmm - some sort of alt-WWII with someone less whacky than the Nazis, but equally racist. The Reich ends up with most of French Africa, and rule with a raist brutality that would make the South Africans wince. Given that the Liberians now border German territory, this leads to a serious destablization as refugees flee to Liberia, and since the Liberian government is not very good at controlling its frontiers, this is increasingly destablizing, especially after some refugees begin using the Liberian border areas to practice hit-and-run terrorism on German territory.

The Germans get increasingly threatening, and the Liberians run to the US for help. The US, which is currently engaged in a cold-war type of confrontation with the Germans, moves troops in to draw a line in the sand against the Germans. The US, meanwhile, begins to turn more strongly against racism than OTL, given that racial heirarchy is one of the governing principles of the German government...

...and that's all I have for now. Frankly, it strikes me as much more likely that Liberia would be at best a commonwealth at best by 2009, rather than an actual state. (For one thing, I have trouble seeing the US spending the kind of money and effort needed to improve the standard of living to first world standards).

Illegal immigration from German colonial territory (and Sierra Leone) will be a problem, but given the need to get aboard a boat or a plane going to the mainland US rather seriously cuts down the problem of illegal immigration (ID, and so on). (And as for Liberians themselves, there are only 3 million of them, compared to over 100 million Mexicans.).

Bruce
 
... ...and that's all I have for now. Frankly, it strikes me as much more likely that Liberia would be at best a commonwealth at best by 2009, rather than an actual state. (For one thing, I have trouble seeing the US spending the kind of money and effort needed to improve the standard of living to first world standards).

Illegal immigration from German colonial territory (and Sierra Leone) will be a problem, but given the need to get aboard a boat or a plane going to the mainland US rather seriously cuts down the problem of illegal immigration (ID, and so on). (And as for Liberians themselves, there are only 3 million of them, compared to over 100 million Mexicans.).

Bruce


Agreed. And if the Liberians could be expected to fill some of the role of illegal immigrants, could be a factor encouraging this TL.
 
Putting that (titanic) issue aside, Liberia has voted to become a state, now Congress has to figure out whether to accept or not. Presumably, though, they couldn't hold the referendum unless Congress at least pledged to uphold the result. Nonetheless, there's going to be some substantial resistance to the notion of formally admitting Liberia. I can see some Senators trying to hide behind the "republican government clause" in an attempt to deny Liberia's admission.
Liberia was a monarchy was it? Not hardly.
 
Liberia as a U.S. state is a virtual impossibility, but if it did happen, I'd bet good money Puerto Rico, D.C., and probably a few other U.S. territories become states.

As for Liberia becoming a U.S. territory...there's an outside shot, but I'd say the likeliest situation would involve an American liberation of Liberia during a world war, likely the Second. Hitler or Mussolini would have to be more successful in West Africa, and the Americans would have to liberate Liberia and occupy it, keeping peacekeeping troops there. For that to happen, either the Americans need to have some kind of interest in Africa or they have to be thinking that the Soviets or someone are going after it. I just don't see Africa being that important to the Soviets, although some POD could change that, and a Cold War fallout situation would give us the U.S. territory of Liberia, which would be militarily useful if the time came.
 
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