First attempt at a history
First off, I've tweaked the map a bit. I've removed the Bolivarian alliance and changed up some borders in Africa becuase it was looking too much like OTL.
I think the basic conciet of this timeline has to be a much weaker US. I've going to use the POD that the Constitution was never ratified. The states have sovereignty and are loosely allied under the Articles of Confederation. Something like the War of 1812 still happens, though maybe later (War of 1815) becuase there's a lot of anti-British sentiment: the Brits still have forts west of the Appalachians, which is interfering with the States' individual attempts to grab land out west. There's also impressment, etc. much like OTL. Needless to say, the disorganized states fare even worse than OTL and end up losing Michigan to the Brits. Some time during this war, Napoleon sends some agents to stir up a revolution in Quebec, and it revolts. Britain is too distracted by the Napoleanic Wars and those annoying Americans to get it back. One of the peace terms that ends the British-American war is that a large portion of the North American continent will be reserved for the Native Americans, and the Americans agree, seeing the land as useless and empty.
A side effect of the lack of US unity is a lack of manifest destiny. The expansion of settlers into the west is a free-for-all process. Tejas is settled by slave-holding Southerners looking for more land and undergoes a revolution and war against Aztlan much like OTL, but never joins the confederation of loosely-organized states in the East. Mormons move out to found Deseret in the early 1850s. Without a strong federal government all of these settlers are much more likely to found sovereign nations rather than join the US. The same goes for the Californians of the Bear Flag republic and the fur trappers and mountain-men of Oregon territory.
There is no Civil War in ATL. The National Congress in Philadelphia has no real power to hold the states together, and if the South wants to leave one confederacy and join another there's not much the USA can do. By the 1860s the South is disillusioned with Congress, which they see as dominated by Northern, pro-British, abolitionist influences.
So there it is. This AH was mostly focused on how things would have turned out differently for America, so there aren't many big changes for the rest of the world. I still haven't thought of a good reason for why the dfutch still hold New Amsterdam (NYC) or why the Russians have conquered Japan. Ideas?