AH Challenge: WWI sans Austria-Hungary

Your challenge, if you accept it, is to have a WWI - equivalent between 1900 and 1925 in which Germany participates - and loses - but Austria-Hungary either stays neutral or only comes in at the very end to beat up on one or the other of the losers.

Bonus point if we get a Soviet Union out of the deal as well.

Bruce
 
Just to start it off, one possible starting point is AH not annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina, which means better relations with Russia, and the Serbs are concentrating on the Ottomans rather than the Habsburgs...

Bruce
 
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1866 comes around and Prussia Takes Bohemia-Morovia and Gallicia is freed as per some design by original hawks in the Prussian military.

When 1871 comes around Austria-Hungary is nuetral and becomes staunchly isolationist.

Earlier Austria must have cut its losses in Italy and either have granted autonomy and held the regions like it did with Tuscany or give it to Sardinia-Piedmonte.

For the Balkans not much is necesscary so long as the Ottomans get ejected at some point prior to this starting.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
When 1871 comes around Austria-Hungary is nuetral and becomes staunchly isolationist.

I have a hard time seeing Austria-Hungary becoming isolationist. If Prussia really does a number on them IITL like you've proposed, you'll probably just see an earlier "fuck this shit" attitude towards Central Europe.

This would probably lead to A-H concentrating more intensely on Italy or (more likely) the Balkans.
 

MrP

Banned
I'd imagine one way is to render A-H incapable of partaking in such a war - internal divisions over FF's desire to make it a tripartite monarchy, say - and then to make Russia or France the attackers of Germany, since I can't see the Germans being so foolish as to begin such a war when A-H cannot help them. Perhaps the assassination of someone important. A good half of history's deranged assassins seem to have been running around during this period. ;)
 
I'd imagine one way is to render A-H incapable of partaking in such a war - internal divisions over FF's desire to make it a tripartite monarchy, say - and then to make Russia or France the attackers of Germany, since I can't see the Germans being so foolish as to begin such a war when A-H cannot help them. Perhaps the assassination of someone important. A good half of history's deranged assassins seem to have been running around during this period. ;)
With Austria-Hungary neutral and Germany being the defender rather than the attacker there's a significantly increased chance that Italy would honor their alliance with Germany, which would help keep the conflict relatively balanced. Britain is also likely to be less inclined to immediately enter the war if Germany is defending itself rather than attacking through Belgium.
 
With Austria-Hungary neutral and Germany being the defender rather than the attacker there's a significantly increased chance that Italy would honor their alliance with Germany, which would help keep the conflict relatively balanced. Britain is also likely to be less inclined to immediately enter the war if Germany is defending itself rather than attacking through Belgium.

Hm. Italy+Germany vs France+Russia - one serious problem Italy would have in this situation is that they have no common border with Germany, so to provide any supplies to Italy the Germans are going to have to drive the French from the seas. One wonders what the British will think of major German-French naval conflict right off their front porch? French subs and commerce raiders attacking ships going to Italy? German efforts to sieze French colonies, some of them right next door to British ones?

Bruce
 

MrP

Banned
With Austria-Hungary neutral and Germany being the defender rather than the attacker there's a significantly increased chance that Italy would honor their alliance with Germany, which would help keep the conflict relatively balanced. Britain is also likely to be less inclined to immediately enter the war if Germany is defending itself rather than attacking through Belgium.

Hm. Italy+Germany vs France+Russia - one serious problem Italy would have in this situation is that they have no common border with Germany, so to provide any supplies to Italy the Germans are going to have to drive the French from the seas. One wonders what the British will think of major German-French naval conflict right off their front porch? French subs and commerce raiders attacking ships going to Italy? German efforts to sieze French colonies, some of them right next door to British ones?

Bruce

An easier route than sweeping the Marine Nationale from the seas might be to sweep through Switzerland. Not that I believe such a task would be easy, merely that it would be simpler than sweeping the MN from the seas, given British suspicions of people messing about in boats in the Channel. However, a far easier war of going about things would be to secure passage through A-H. Simply because she cannot participate in any meaningful sense in the war does not mean that she is completely inaccessible to trains and so on.

The more I think of it, the more I like this scenario. Germany defending, an offensive Franco-Russian alliance, Italy on the other side, A-H out of it. I honestly don't think I've seen this scenario proposed, let alone fully investigated, on this site before. I think this deserves to be taken further - especially if you're going to have that whole "CHARGE!" mentality in the French army at the start.
 
Agreed with MrP that passage through Austria-Hungary is the most likely route of supply between Germany and Italy, it doesn't require a war after all.

Also, would there be any effect on any of the neutral powers that were suspected of being somewhat sympathetic to the Germans OTL?
 
Agreed with MrP that passage through Austria-Hungary is the most likely route of supply between Germany and Italy, it doesn't require a war after all.

Also, would there be any effect on any of the neutral powers that were suspected of being somewhat sympathetic to the Germans OTL?

Well, as long as it's just supplies and no troops, I guess it doesn't violate neutrality too badly. And the Russians and French won't want to bring AH into the war, especially if the initial phases of the war are as nasty as OTL.

Beware, though: remember, part of this challenge is that Germany _loses_ in the end. Huh. In some ways this seems initially a _better_ situation for Germany: losing Austria-Hungary may be worth keeping the UK out of the war. And the German supply situation is better, since Austria is not blockaded, and they in turn can buy stuff from Austria. But can the UK afford to stay out indefinitely? After all, a German victory, even a limited one - say, smashing Russia to bits - is not really in the interest of the British Empire.

The Ottomans probably stay out - the Germans really have no way to supply them, since I have trouble seeing Serbia and Greece and Bulgaria allowing the transit of supplies meant to be used against Russia, and German troops are Right Out.

Bruce
 
IF the war is a french-russian attack on Germany, then it won't happen before Russia railroads for mobilisation are ready ( french backed down a number of times from a war with Germany because Russia was not ready yet - like in Morocco -), say in 1920. In that case, Germany loses. Badly.
 
Bruce,

This is a very intriguing idea. Thank you for sharing it with us.

Just off the top of my pointy head...

- Obviously with the A-H out, the OTL war's spark is elsewhere. So what sort of events can launch the Franco-Russian attack on Germany? Or a German attack on France and Russia?

- Linked with the question above, when will this war begin? After Russia's railroad expansion program finishes in the mid-nineteen-teens? After the Kiel Canal is finished? Earlier than in the OTL? Or later?

- Would this war even be called a "world" war? Four of Europe's great powers are on the sidelines; Britain, A-H, Ottomans, and (possibly) Italy, while none of the major participants will find it easy to snap up the others colonial possessions either. Some of the participants don't even have colonies worth snapping up.

- Wilhelmine Germany's dreadnought-centered HSF may not even exist. Without the A-H as an ally, Germany may take more care not to estrange Britain and most likely will build a navy more oriented towards fighting the Franco-Russian alliance, i.e. smaller battleline and more cruisers.

- Will Japan take the opportunity it did in the OTL to snap up Germany's Asiatic and Pacific possessions.

Lots and lots of interesting questions at work in this thread.


Bill
 
Bruce,

This is a very intriguing idea. Thank you for sharing it with us.

Just off the top of my pointy head...

- Obviously with the A-H out, the OTL war's spark is elsewhere. So what sort of events can launch the Franco-Russian attack on Germany? Or a German attack on France and Russia?



Well, that's part of the challenge. Under the circumstances, it's probably not going to be some Damn Fool Thing in the Balkans. Possibly a colonial dispute in Africa between France and Germany, or an outbreak of revolutionary violence in Russia makes the Germans think that their chance is Now or Never, or perhaps an alt-Russia-Japan war in 1920 in which there is an alt-Dogger Bank incident in which a bunch of German ships get sent to the bottom...

- Linked with the question above, when will this war begin? After Russia's railroad expansion program finishes in the mid-nineteen-teens? After the Kiel Canal is finished? Earlier than in the OTL? Or later?



Later probably work better, since we want Germany to lose. IIRC my Paul Kennedy "rise and fall of the great powers", German power was probably at a maximum relative to Russia around the turn of the century, and began to slowly decline relatively afterwards...

- Would this war even be called a "world" war? Four of Europe's great powers are on the sidelines; Britain, A-H, Ottomans, and (possibly) Italy, while none of the major participants will find it easy to snap up the others colonial possessions either. Some of the participants don't even have colonies worth snapping up.


Depends on whether the UK gets involved, which they might if it looks like Germany is winning. (When did they start calling it a World War rather than the Great War, anyway?)

- Wilhelmine Germany's dreadnought-centered HSF may not even exist. Without the A-H as an ally, Germany may take more care not to estrange Britain and most likely will build a navy more oriented towards fighting the Franco-Russian alliance, i.e. smaller battleline and more cruisers.



Well, depends on when the breakdown in German-Austrian relations occurs. If it occurs late enough, the arms race may be alrady under way. (And even in an ATL otherwise correspondent to our history, if Germany stumbled on it's own into a fight with France or Russia, would Austria-Hungary join in as enthusiastically as Germany did OTL when Austria laid down the law to Serbia?)

- Will Japan take the opportunity it did in the OTL to snap up Germany's Asiatic and Pacific possessions.



Likely, I'd think.

Bruce
 
(When did they start calling it a World War rather than the Great War, anyway?)
Oh, sometime in the 40's. Seriously.

Up until WWII, WWI was "The Great War" or the "War to End All Wars". Even WWII wasn't called that for a while. My dad has an Encyclopedia Britannica of early war vintage - and some article had a picture of warships steaming along, with the caption "The European War, 1939-" !!! Blew me away when I saw it.
 
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