AH Challenge: What would make the Ottoman Empire survive?

Could you get a Vatican situation, where the Caliphate is a ruler of Constantinople that Turkey allows to exist?

Extremely unlikely, but it isn't impossible that Turkey could have remained a constitutional monarchy. If Mehmed VI Vahdeddin had supported the Nationalists instead of fighting them, it would have been impossible for Mustafa Kemal to abolish the monarchy.
 
The Young Turk Revolution already happened in 1908, which delegitimized the Empire in many ways to its non-Turkish residents (those that weren't already champing at the ethnic nationalism bit). I don't thing think the Arab revolt during WWI would have gained much traction (regardless of how dashing T.E. Lawrence was) if there was still a respected Caliph around...

I don't think there were any Ottoman Muslims at all that were "champing at the ethnic nationalism bit", with the partial exception of the Albanians, who were for greater autonomy, but not independence, but they were lost in the Balkan Wars in any case.

The Young Turk Revolution was not in any way Turkish nationalist - it was firmly ideologically Ottomanist. It did, however, delegitimize the government to an extent to ALL Muslims, not just non-Turks, and many were alienated by their aggressive centralization campaigns.

If the empire had not entered the war, these tensions would have come to the fore at some point, but nobody was interested in the dissolution of the empire. Most likely the Young Turks would have lost power at some point, and over time, most likely more local control over provincial affairs would have developed.
 
If the OE doesn't enter WWI then its probably able to survive pretty well. Russia would fall and the remaining Entente powers would be too exhausted at the end of an equally long *WWI to try anything on the Ottomans.

With the war going on, would the OE be able to complete the railroad to Baghdad on its own?

Will the straits be open for the Entente to ship supplies to Russia? If they are, does that make a difference to internal Russian situation?

OE has a lot to gain in the Caucasus- in the chaos of revolutionary Russia they might be able to swipe push the border north, get Azerbaijan and access to even more oil. Maybe even get involved in some post-Russian Empire, pre-USSR Central Asian politics, helping out fellow Muslims and all.

Post-WWI Germany is going to be looking for foreign allies who can help it get around Versailles restrictions on armaments. The Ottomans (especially the Army), even if they don't enter WWI, are going to be sympathetic to the Germans (the Germans having been the major foreign trainer of the OE Army).

Having survived WWI, do you see a petrol-wealth fueled OE being able to self-finance more infrastructure projects (more railroads, industrialization)?

Broadly agree. In answer to questions, the Ottomans are going to milk access to the Straits for all it's worth. While they can't complete the Baghdad RR by themselves, they can probably get a lot of work on it done with some small amount of German expertise - and as neutrals the USA is always available for materials.

Ottoman non-entry will make Russia more formidable, but it's impossible to say whether or not it would have prevented a collapse. By 1915 the Ottomans will begin to look pretty scary with their army fully reorganized; I would imagine the Russians won't leave their border unguarded, but this is not as critical as access through the Straits.
 

Mujahid786

Banned
Broadly agree. In answer to questions, the Ottomans are going to milk access to the Straits for all it's worth. While they can't complete the Baghdad RR by themselves, they can probably get a lot of work on it done with some small amount of German expertise - and as neutrals the USA is always available for materials.

Ottoman non-entry will make Russia more formidable, but it's impossible to say whether or not it would have prevented a collapse. By 1915 the Ottomans will begin to look pretty scary with their army fully reorganized; I would imagine the Russians won't leave their border unguarded, but this is not as critical as access through the Straits.
the entire reason germany made the ottomans an ally was because of the straits, he didnt want the russians to be easily supplied,

a reorganized ottoman military might take the caucasus from a revolutionary russia, with all the chaos, maybe even make a headway in the balkans again, taking some bulgarian territory as it lost in ww1
 

Mujahid786

Banned
When Sultan Selim III began his reforms, he asked France for help. A young artillery officer named Napoleon Bonaparte was to be sent. But when he put down a Parisian Mob with a "whiff of grapeshot" he was kept in France. What if Napoleon was actually sent? I think that his military genius would have ended Janissary domination and the Ottoman Army would have been brought back to life. This would mean that the Ottomans would be a major ally of the French Empire, attacking Habsburg Austria, Russia etc.
 
When Sultan Selim III began his reforms, he asked France for help. A young artillery officer named Napoleon Bonaparte was to be sent. But when he put down a Parisian Mob with a "whiff of grapeshot" he was kept in France. What if Napoleon was actually sent? I think that his military genius would have ended Janissary domination and the Ottoman Army would have been brought back to life. This would mean that the Ottomans would be a major ally of the French Empire, attacking Habsburg Austria, Russia etc.

I don't think it's that simple at all. He's still a foreigner, has no knowledge of the language or the way the government works, has no personal connections, etc. and will find his efforts and ambition stymied at every turn. Most likely the Ottomans will get an excellent artillery corps out of it - this was already the best and most advanced part of the Ottoman army at the time.
 
the entire reason germany made the ottomans an ally was because of the straits, he didnt want the russians to be easily supplied,

a reorganized ottoman military might take the caucasus from a revolutionary russia, with all the chaos, maybe even make a headway in the balkans again, taking some bulgarian territory as it lost in ww1

Even in OTL the Ottomans conquered the Caucasus in 1918, reaching Baku and were marching toward Astrakhan when the war ended. In a TL where Russia collapses and the Ottomans have not entered the war, they will sweep through the Caucasus like a hot knife through butter.

Bulgaria will probably stay out too if the Ottomans do, so it's not too likely they will gain anything in the Balkans, but Western Thrace is possible, and would probably even be allowed by the Powers as it still has a Muslim majority.

The most important thing is that the Ottomans would have had a chance to set their own house in order:

- Abolishing the Capitulations that limited their sovereignty and provided a mechanism for foreign intervention,

- Beginning an industrial program

- Working on rail lines esp. the Baghdad RR

- Taking advantage of inflation and a favorable balance of payments to eliminate the debt and the foreign Public Debt Administration, another intrusion into Ottoman sovereignty

- Eliminating trade treaties that controlled at a very low level Ottoman tariffs to protect industry and raise revenues.

- Deal with the Saudis, and maybe the Kuwaitis.

And many other benefits. The war will still be hard on the empire, but obviously not as bad as in OTL.
 

Mujahid786

Banned
if the ottomans didnt enter the war, they could end up a superpower, like the US. it got money by lending money to other countries with interest, selling weapons. the ottomans could sell their massive oil reserves.
 
Hands of the Sons of Yerivann

A hearts and minds style campagain to cool off the Arab Revolt.
And can the Armeanian Genocide folks. The loyal millet, should have been seduced not slaughtered If that happens when Russia goes down they'll be fun in Istanbul.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
if the ottomans didnt enter the war, they could end up a superpower, like the US. it got money by lending money to other countries with interest, selling weapons. the ottomans could sell their massive oil reserves.

No it couldn't, the Ottoman Empire lacked the resources, the expertice and the sheer size to be anything but a midlevel power after that time, at best we can get something like post war Japan*.

*if more based on mineral wealth than industrial production
 

Mujahid786

Banned
No it couldn't, the Ottoman Empire lacked the resources, the expertice and the sheer size to be anything but a midlevel power after that time, at best we can get something like post war Japan*.

*if more based on mineral wealth than industrial production

they did possess massive oil reserves, which were begining to be discovered in that time,

they could sell oil after the war.
 
A hearts and minds style campagain to cool off the Arab Revolt.
And can the Armeanian Genocide folks. The loyal millet, should have been seduced not slaughtered If that happens when Russia goes down they'll be fun in Istanbul.

Armenian Genocide ? Is that that site that acts like an encyclopedia ? :p

And also, do you know exactly when the Arabs revolted during the WWI ? Furtherly questioned, which Arabs did ?
 
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