AH Challenge: WarPac Survival

Already, not sure how plausible this is (hey, I live in Texas, how much history could I learn?), but is it possible for the WarPac nations (minus Russia) to stick together after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and still separate from the EU? Not confident on how likely/unlikely a German re-unification/continued separation is, but that isn't required in the challenge.

So, Poland, Hungary, Albania, Romania, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia* sticking together in a combined customs union/free trade agreement post-WarPac, but non-EU/EC. Federalization is an option, but most likely extremely long term. The nations mentioned above don't have to all be there, but at least five of them need to stick together.

Thanks in advance,
RIG

*Czech Republic and Slovak Republic are both allowed, and also a lot more welcome.
 
Very unlikely. Their first concern would be the west--I mean, with the likes of Solidarity in Poland, I can't really imagine this sort of thing going on without some reshuffling in government--and the butterflies from that change a helluva lot.
 
Poland would want to throw off any reminder of the communists, so it would likely change the name at the very least. Perhaps Walesa tries to pursue Pilsudski's Miedzymorze, but I doubt that would go over very well with anyone.
 
Highly doubtful

-I can only imagine such a solution in case of a very isolationist EU which would be unwilling to accept Eastern European members. On the military level, the same would have to be the case with NATO.

In the post-1989 geopolitical situation, both would go against the self-interest as well as against the principal philosophy of these organizations.

-In OTL, many Eastern Europeans were disappointed by the EU's hesitation to allow new members (most of the nations you mentioned joined in 2004).

-Warsaw Pact as well as the COMECON (?) had their focus point in the Sovjet Union. With them leaving, reorganisation as well as justification of these organisation would prove quite difficult.

-Imaginable POD would be that the Sovjet Union collapses but the Eastern European states remain Communist regimes. The problem is that most of these regimes could only be upheld under the constant threat of Sovjet intervention. Once this intervention is removed, regime-preservation becomes ASB in the case of Hungary and Poland, actually also Czechoslovakia and in the slightly longer run GDR.

-Another ASB scenario: have the EU dissolve after 1989 and let the East fall into a new German sphere of economical and political influence. The ensuing organisation as to your challenge would include the FRG and maybe even Austria. The ASB² factor: France, Britain and Russia would do almost anything to prevent such an inbalance of power to come into being. The ASB³ factor: German politicians would simply be too inept to act that way. :p
 
What about in the future? After the bad memories of the Communist wear away?

Note: remaining Communist is not part of the Challenge.
 
...in the future.

I fear that without OTL-European integration, such a pact would not materialize as some of the nations you mentioned would rival each other and rather look for stronger partners in the west....Britain, France, Germany, USA, maybe even Italy.

In OTL, the desire to gain access to the EU (and its moneypots) is a driving force which keeps nationalistic and authoritarian tendencies in check (to some degree). Expect both to be more important in your scenario.
I would also assume to a certain degree less economic growth, strengthening radical tendencies.

So, there might be states which slip back into neo-authoritarian regimes à la Byelorussia or there might be more nationalistic problems. Hungary, e.g. might have issues with Slovakia and Romania.

All these tendencies would hinder an Easter European federation.
 
Bright day
Randomideaguy- you are talking about SEV (Comecon) not Warsaw Pact. The end of SEV actually hurt the countries involved- but whetever that was a bad hurt or hurt which allowed for economic retooling is hotly disputed. Nevertheless, to save you need to alter perestroika. OTL Perestroika just freed the economies of SEV members, who immediatly jumped at chance to start new transactions with West, while it kept the co-operation in Eastern Bloc deficient. To save SEV, you would need reforms that would SEV make lose reputation as a form of Soviet exploitation (which was not fully justified)- but that would take decades which SEV did not have.

My answer thus be, earlier reform leading to rationalization of exchange and more options for states to have voice in the leading of SEV.
 
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