AH challenge: two Greater Germanies

Eurofed

Banned
There's the challenge: with a post-1789 PoD, get two German states, that arise no later than 1870 and endure up to 2010, with the following borders or better:

North Germany: all the states that were included in the North German Confederation, plus Bohemia and Moravia. Denmark may get northern Schleswig back.

South Germany: all the southern German states plus Austria. Union with Hungary optional.

Italian unification must happen on schedule or earlier, in OTL borders or better, and endure up to 2010.

No one of these three states may ever get Nazist (meant as being the author of a genocide) or Communist (but they may go fascist for a while) and must be liberal democracies by 2010 (bonus points if they remain constitutional monarchies).
 
Are you actually making a challenge aiming to Balkanize Germany?


Who are you and what have you done with Eurofed?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Are you actually making a challenge aiming to Balkanize Germany?

Who are you and what have you done with Eurofed?

I got inspired from what Glen has done by dividing America in two states, North + Canada and a Dixie British Dominion, that left USA all the best parts and wanted to try something similar.

Plus, I got sick of people mistaking me for an unreasoning Germanophile and wanted to throw out a tiny counterproof.

But I still hate Poland, so they cannot ever get Posen :p
 
The problem with this scenario is that you basically need to have the same 1815 settlement (since a lot of the borders it and your scenario mandate were awkward last-minute compromises that nobody wanted: Prussian Poznan, for instance :p), but having had said, you'll already have the economic disparity created by Prussian control of much of Germany's most valuable real-estate and several coal-and-iron jackpots, which was being felt even before industrialisation really took off: Bavaria and Wuerttemburg joined the Zollverein in 1834.

(And one potential alternative, acceptance of all-German customs union shortly after Vienna for wahetever reason, seems to me a recipe for the gradual integration of Megagermany.)

After Prussia's economic tendrils start to spread, it's very hard to split everything at the Main, because the economic pull of the north is so much stronger. To really check Prussian supremacy at the Main you need to have Prussia get thoroughly manhandled by somebody (Austria, France, both). But if Austria beats Prussia down in 1850 or so and parcels out her gains of 1815, the result is probably a continuation (and quite likley a gradual integration) of a multipolar German confederation. It's definitely an Austria Silesia and not a Prussian Bohemia.

Speaking of which, the Czech clause is really awkward. Bohemia-Moravia was thoroughly integrated with Hapsburglandia (Vienna-Brno is one of the oldest railways in the world, IIRC), and was its only industrial motor; so giving it to Prussia makes the economic disparity frankly hilarious: Bohemia is the make-or-break for a workable Hapsburg state. For what it's worth, it's also contrary to geography and culture (the inhabitants being Catholic, and many of the Germans Oberdeutsch).

In short, for Viennaland to lose Bohemia means it's bean bent over and spanked... in which case Berliner influence ought to extend south of the Main, either through direct sovereignty as Kleindeutschland (and without Bohemia, an Austrian state is almost wholly unsustainable: see 1918-1938 for details) or, if the French don't like that and are in a position to be heard, Louis Napoleon's "third Germany" in the Northern economic orbit.

You need Prussia and Austria to thoroughly defeat each-other, because you've had them swap the natural areas of influence dictated by the economics of the industrial era. If you'd ditch the Czech clause, it wouldn't be enormously difficult.
 
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Redbeard

Banned
May I suggest a PoD in my favourite wargaming battle - Hanau of 30th-31st of October 1813.

In OTL a Austro-Bavarian Army of 40.000 men tried to block the retreat of what it thought was just the scattered remnants of the Grande Armee fleeing from Leipzig. Too late they found out it was actually Napoleon himself with the still organised core of the Grande Armee (not at least the Imperial Guard)and were brushed aside.

With a little better intelligence the Austro-Bavarians could have chosen a much better position (Schlüchtern, a little to the east being my favourite) and the allied main army under Schwarzenberg could/would have chosen a closer pursuit of the French.

Anyway, if so, Napoleon seriously risk meeting his Waterloo already in autumn 1813 - i.e. first assaulting a well chosen enemy defensive position and not gaining much else than being shot to pieces, and then being swept himself by the forces of Schwarzenberg arriving from behind.

In OTL the Bavarians and Austrians apparently agreed to go for a mutual domination of southern Germany when they negotiated Bavaria's transfer to the allied camp in September-October 1813, and with the Napoleonic Wars ending at Hanau/Schlüchtern they would have a splendid starting point for carrying it out.

Prussia would still be dominant in Northern Germany, but in the south the Austro-Bavarians stay in charge as long as they are undefeated. For the next 50 years or so Prussia will not be strong enough to challenge the (real) Kaiser and clients, and might never be in this ATL. Keeping together N.Germany might be enough of a challenge.

To have your desired outcome we could "fix" the OTL Italian wars of mid 19th century: The Prussians and French ally against the Austrians, but the Russians see an opportunity to have a go at (East)Prussia.

So basically Prussia gets really mauled and loose East Prussia and Silesia to Russia (Denmark seize the opportunity to annex Slesvig), but the Austrians likewise gets mauled by the French, who force through an Italian unification under Savoy from mid 19th century. This again has the Hungarians quit the Kaiser, and in the following decades various Slav nations are formed out of the remaining Habsburg Empire. Could be in combination with widespread communist unrest all over Europe, leading to civil war and culminating in a republic/constitutional monarchy uniting the German speaking areas in south/central Europe.

The very agressive Napoleon IV and his Russian admirer Nicholas II start a world war in 1914 by attacking the democratic central European states, who are allied to GB, and later USA too. The Russians hope for the support of the new Slav nations in Europe, but already having gained their desired independence they see no reason to risk it all for a loony duo of an Empereur and a Zar, and stay neutral, as do the Italians. Anyway most of the Slavs sympazise more with the Poles living in Russia, and who are repeatedly and brutally refused their own nation.

Russia collapse pretty much as in OTL (leading to the creation of Great Poland), and France surrender as a huge Anglo-American force land in Normandy in 1918 and march for Paris.

The Napoleonic dynasty is displaced for good and an Economical Co-Operation Zone (ECOZ) is created from most of the democratic nations of the European continent. It works OK, altough various fascist and communist rebellions needs to be put down in the first decades.

The big test come in 1942, when Stalin unleash hundreds of Divisions westwards, advancing as far as the Elbe, but then bogging down in hopeless logistics and horrendous attrition. Again the Anglo-Americans take the side of the Central Europeans and by 1943-44 the Soviet Union is invaded from Europe, the Artic, Iran, Afghanistan and the Far East.

Stalin is killed and publicly exposed at the Lenin Mausoleum (hanging head down at the front) and the Soviet Union dissolve into a European Russia and a number of independent nations, not all that stable or democratic.

In the ECOZ the main question in the following decades is whether the ECOZ sould develop into a political union taking care of basically everything, or should remain a mainly economical tool. In the end the latter point of view win, the Europeans really have had enough of Empires...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
May I suggest a PoD in my favourite wargaming battle - Hanau of 30th-31st of October 1813.

In OTL a Austro-Bavarian Army of 40.000 men tried to block the retreat of what it thought was just the scattered remnants of the Grande Armee fleeing from Leipzig. Too late they found out it was actually Napoleon himself with the still organised core of the Grande Armee (not at least the Imperial Guard)and were brushed aside.

With a little better intelligence the Austro-Bavarians could have chosen a much better position (Schlüchtern, a little to the east being my favourite) and the allied main army under Schwarzenberg could/would have chosen a closer pursuit of the French.

Anyway, if so, Napoleon seriously risk meeting his Waterloo already in autumn 1813 - i.e. first assaulting a well chosen enemy defensive position and not gaining much else than being shot to pieces, and then being swept himself by the forces of Schwarzenberg arriving from behind.

In OTL the Bavarians and Austrians apparently agreed to go for a mutual domination of southern Germany when they negotiated Bavaria's transfer to the allied camp in September-October 1813, and with the Napoleonic Wars ending at Hanau/Schlüchtern they would have a splendid starting point for carrying it out.

Prussia would still be dominant in Northern Germany, but in the south the Austro-Bavarians stay in charge as long as they are undefeated. For the next 50 years or so Prussia will not be strong enough to challenge the (real) Kaiser and clients, and might never be in this ATL. Keeping together N.Germany might be enough of a challenge.

To have your desired outcome we could "fix" the OTL Italian wars of mid 19th century: The Prussians and French ally against the Austrians, but the Russians see an opportunity to have a go at (East)Prussia.

So basically Prussia gets really mauled and loose East Prussia and Silesia to Russia (Denmark seize the opportunity to annex Slesvig), but the Austrians likewise gets mauled by the French, who force through an Italian unification under Savoy from mid 19th century. This again has the Hungarians quit the Kaiser, and in the following decades various Slav nations are formed out of the remaining Habsburg Empire. Could be in combination with widespread communist unrest all over Europe, leading to civil war and culminating in a republic/constitutional monarchy uniting the German speaking areas in south/central Europe.

The very agressive Napoleon IV and his Russian admirer Nicholas II start a world war in 1914 by attacking the democratic central European states, who are allied to GB, and later USA too. The Russians hope for the support of the new Slav nations in Europe, but already having gained their desired independence they see no reason to risk it all for a loony duo of an Empereur and a Zar, and stay neutral, as do the Italians. Anyway most of the Slavs sympazise more with the Poles living in Russia, and who are repeatedly and brutally refused their own nation.

Russia collapse pretty much as in OTL (leading to the creation of Great Poland), and France surrender as a huge Anglo-American force land in Normandy in 1918 and march for Paris.

The Napoleonic dynasty is displaced for good and an Economical Co-Operation Zone (ECOZ) is created from most of the democratic nations of the European continent. It works OK, altough various fascist and communist rebellions needs to be put down in the first decades.

The big test come in 1942, when Stalin unleash hundreds of Divisions westwards, advancing as far as the Elbe, but then bogging down in hopeless logistics and horrendous attrition. Again the Anglo-Americans take the side of the Central Europeans and by 1943-44 the Soviet Union is invaded from Europe, the Artic, Iran, Afghanistan and the Far East.

Stalin is killed and publicly exposed at the Lenin Mausoleum (hanging head down at the front) and the Soviet Union dissolve into a European Russia and a number of independent nations, not all that stable or democratic.

In the ECOZ the main question in the following decades is whether the ECOZ sould develop into a political union taking care of basically everything, or should remain a mainly economical tool. In the end the latter point of view win, the Europeans really have had enough of Empires...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

Is that really a 1813 POD with Lenin leading a Russian Revolution and Stalin taking over after? Ouch butterflies cry :/
 

Redbeard

Banned
Is that really a 1813 POD with Lenin leading a Russian Revolution and Stalin taking over after? Ouch butterflies cry :/

It would be plausible that the European powers clash serioulsy late 19th/early in 20th century, that Zarist Russia doesn't survive and that communist wannabe dictators seize any opportunity. In this ATL the one called Lenin actually is a tall guy with lots of hair and Stalin looks surprisingly much like the one we know as Trotsky :D

In reality any PoD will have incomprehensible consequences after a generation - just imagine anybody's father and mother taking one breath differently, and a different sperm cell fertilizes the egg - and an entire new stock of genetic compositions are born!

But if ATLs are to be longer than a generation or two, and still comprehensible, we need to limit the number or varibles - for the sake of the experiement.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
It would be plausible that the European powers clash serioulsy late 19th/early in 20th century, that Zarist Russia doesn't survive and that communist wannabe dictators seize any opportunity. In this ATL the one called Lenin actually is a tall guy with lots of hair and Stalin looks surprisingly much like the one we know as Trotsky :D

In reality any PoD will have incomprehensible consequences after a generation - just imagine anybody's father and mother taking one breath differently, and a different sperm cell fertilizes the egg - and an entire new stock of genetic compositions are born!

But if ATLs are to be longer than a generation or two, and still comprehensible, we need to limit the number or varibles - for the sake of the experiement.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

Indeed. ATLs are more informative if we limit the changes.

And with respect to the example it should be noted that Lenin and Stalin are pseudonyms used in OTL by Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov and Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili respectively.
They roughly translate as (Man of Lena [the Siberian River] and (Man) of Steel.
Thus it is perfectly acceptable for alternate revolutionaries in Czarist Russia to use the same pseudonyms.
 
Come on Eurofed, admit that you already have the POD at hands and don't tell. :D

Prussia annexes Bohemia-Moravia in 1866 and marches into Vienna, thoroughly alienates the Southern Germans and rump-Austria (Hungary breaking off only tied to Franz Josef by personal union; Italy jumps on the opportunity and annexes all you usually wish them to annex).

ASAP Bavaria and Austria ally with Napoleon III, Franco-Prussian war breaks out and ends in a stalemate after fierce battles in Palatinate and Frankonia. Status Quo with two German Confederations is confirmed afterwards. Norddeutscher Bund and Donaubund.

WW 1 is won by North or South, in WW 2 South or North gets everything that they lost after WW 1 returned. Alsace ends up as a part of the Donaubund, though. Losing side of WW1 goes authoritarian during the 30s and 40s and slowly reforms back, also losing its monarchy due to a referendum. No part of each federation ever becomes Communist.

After WW 2 both are founding (and due to their experiences with handling federations leading) members of a European Community.

I agree with IBC that the Bohemia/Moravia - clause is very difficult if you take the task serious. As the Great-Grandson of a (German-)Moravian Leutnant of the kuk-Army, I fully reject it. :cool:
 

Eurofed

Banned
Come on Eurofed, admit that you already have the POD at hands and don't tell. :D

Prussia annexes Bohemia-Moravia in 1866 and marches into Vienna, thoroughly alienates the Southern Germans and rump-Austria (Hungary breaking off only tied to Franz Josef by personal union; Italy jumps on the opportunity and annexes all you usually wish them to annex).

Having examined this PoD at an extensive length for my "a different 1866" TL, I can tell you that this solution is promising, but has some problems that need to be worked out. You can certainly make Prussia get more greedy if you make Italy successful at Custoza and Lissa, otherwise it is strategically and politically rather unlikely. Greater Italian victories and hence asking all their usual claims at the peace table would surely make the rest of the Prussian elite (Bismarck may disagree, but he would be overruled) more ambitious as well, claiming Bohemia-Moravia and Saxony, and they would feel more confident if the Austrian army of Italy and fleet are destroyed as well. However, Napoleon III is very likely to step in and threaten intervention, forcing Prussian-Italian claims to be scaled down. My usual expection at this point is that the allies back down, scaling their claims to Sudetenland-Saxony and developing severe resentment. At this point things would unfold as in my TL.

However if (and is a pretty big IF, it requires Prussia and Italy to get rather out-of-character foolhardy, as French military power was rather overestimated in the 1860s and P-I would be wary of fighting a two-fronts war against France) P-I refuse to back down, France (and perhaps Bavaria) may join the war. Having most of their forces in the East, Prussia and Italy are forced to fight France (and Bavaria) less effectively, and the war in the West ends in a stalemate (Austria is wrecked militarly and probably close to revolution in Hungary, it can do almost nothing at this point). France and P-I eventually sign a white peace, but P-I is able to take what they want from Austria's hide in the end. Prussia annexes its OTL gains plus Bohemia-Moravia and Saxony and forms the North German Federation. Italy annexes Trento, Kustenland, Dalmatia, and Rome.

Revolution explodes in Hungary, but Francis Joseph, desperate to keep his throne, makes a devil's deal with Russia, ceding them Galicia and giving them Austrian full support for their expansion in the Balkans. Russian troops quell rebellions in the Austrian empire, which becomes a de facto Russian puppet.

French patronage helps assemble rump Austria and southern German states into a South German Federation to rival the NGF. Austria sets up a personal union with Hungary. Russian military power and the Ausgleich keeps the Hungarians somewhat quiet.

Russia goes on war against Turkey and with support by SGF-Hungary and French neutrality, it is able to force Britain to accept a settlement more favorable to Russian claims at the *Congress of Berlin. Britain is alienated and grows more and more closer to the NGF-Italy alliance.

In the medium term, Europe gets divided into the rival alliance blocks of UK + NGF + Italy + Turkey and France + SGF-H + Russia. It is also likely that France intervenes into Spain during its dynastic crisis and puts a Napoleonic scion on the throne, bringing Spain in the *Entente bloc. Britain and the NGF balance this by exercising their combined influence to pull Norway-Sweden in their alliance bloc (if not fostering the confederal union of Scandinavia).

It would make for a rather interesting WW sequence. It needs rather more reflection on how an outcome may result that leaves the 19th boundaries unchanged, however. I dunno if it is really feasible.
 
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