AH Challenge: the UK stays out of the EEC

MrHola

Banned
Come up with the scenario where the UK stays out of the EEC. What would be the consequences? A possible POD could be that Hugh Gaitskell wins in 1959 general elections. Gaitskell was against UK entry in the EEC.
 
Delaying The Inevitable

Come up with the scenario where the UK stays out of the EEC. What would be the consequences? A possible POD could be that Hugh Gaitskell wins in 1959 general elections. Gaitskell was against UK entry in the EEC.

Quick Thoughts :

In OTL Gaitskell’s successor Wilson tried to join in '67 but was vetoed by de Gaulle. After de Gaulle went in '69 Britain applied again in '70 and joined under Heath in 1973.

The easiest route to keep the UK out is to keep de Gaulle around, in OTL he resigned after calling and losing a referendum on reform, he died in 1970 of a heart attack. So lets have him not call a referendum or just accept the outcome, we could also allow that his health is a little better as a result.

So it's a great big fat 'Non' and by now the Brits have got the message, asking then being rejected three times is going to hurt the pride. Joining the EC is now a poisoned chalice as a political issue for now.

In the ATL I don't see it making that much difference until the '90s economically. The economy was stuffed in the '70s with industrial unrest, three day week, poor performance. This all came to ahead in the recession of the late 70s and early 80s and it's high unemplyment. Late 80s gives us an over heating economy, the policies are going to be same so are the results, and the wiggle room to make much of difference isn't going to be there.

In the 90s ATL you now get a more legislative EU, formed in '92, external trading partners have to pass appropriate legislation, and make contributions for trading privileges.

eg. Switzerland :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6185928.stm

This may all just mean that the UK is the EU's biggest trading partner after the US and has such a dependance on EU trade that it's a defacto member, currently around 50% of UK trade is with the EU. The result of this may mean that British industry is hit with tariffs from the EU so we don't get the late 90s early 00s boom.

The '05 election would probably be about joing the EU and embracing the Euro - new members don't get a choice about having it.

So ATL 1 January 2009, the UK is welcomed as the newest member state of the EU and the upshot is that we get Euro a few years earlier than OTL !
 
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Quick Thoughts :

In OTL Gaitskell’s successor Wilson tried to join in '67 but was vetoed by de Gaulle. After de Gaulle went in '69 Britain applied again in '70 and joined under Heath in 1973.
The first attempt was Macmillan- again vetoed by De Gaulle- in '63.
 
Quick Thoughts :

In the ATL I don't see it making that much difference until the '90s economically. The economy was stuffed in the '70s with industrial unrest, three day week, poor performance. This all came to ahead in the recession of the late 70s and early 80s and it's high unemplyment. Late 80s gives us an over heating economy, the policies are going to be same so are the results, and the wiggle room to make much of difference isn't going to be there.

I don't know as there is significant differencies on both sides from the start. Without the UK to act as a 2nd stomach would the EEC, as was then, have been able to take the cost of the CAP? Or face bitter infighting between France/Germany and the other powers about the high cost of subsidising their farmers? Britain on the other hand can continue to import food at world prices and trade with non-European partners so will have a better economic position. Probably not great enough to significantly avoid the economic problems but they will continue until we decide to sort them out and OTL we haven't done that yet!:mad:

The other question is if Britain stays out would EFTA survive? That would give a decentralised option that might well appeal to other powers when say the Iron Curtain comes down, presuming no butterflies there.


In the 90s ATL you now get a more legislative EU, formed in '92, external trading partners have to pass appropriate legislation, and make contributions for trading privileges.

That would emphesis the cultural and organisational differencies between Britain and the continental powers. As such it might further reduce the attraciveness of the organisation for Britain.


This may all just mean that the UK is the EU's biggest trading partner after the US and has such a dependance on EU trade that it's a defacto member, currently around 50% of UK trade is with the EU. The result of this may mean that British industry is hit with tariffs from the EU so we don't get the late 90s early 00s boom.

As I said above our previous trading system wouldn't be savaged so much without EEC membership. As such trade with the EEC would probably be markedly less. Also your got the problem that unless Britain does work its internal problems out it will have an industrial deficit compared to Europe. If so its the EEC that would suffer most from a trade war.


The '05 election would probably be about joing the EU and embracing the Euro - new members don't get a choice about having it.

In that case, assuming circumstances similar to today you would probably see a decisive no.


So ATL 1 January 2009, the UK is welcomed as the newest member state of the EU and the upshot is that we get Euro a few years earlier than OTL !

Doubtful for the reasons I mention above. Possibly if Thatcher still gets in and really fouls up the economy or no steps are taken to restrict union power people could well be desperate enough to join but I suspect the latter problem would be solved and even she couldn't do that much damage to the stronger economy we're suggesting for Britain in this scenario. [I hope:)]

Steve
 
Were there any other likely successors to de Gaulle who would have taken a different view of British entry than Pompidou did?

If you had Labour win in 1970, and a more Gaullist successor to de Gaulle, then that would very likely put the kibosh on British entry at least for the early seventies - by which time Europe might be too far integrated and Britain too isolated for British entry to the full EEC.

Who knows, though - I think on balance it would still probably happen.
 
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