AH Challenge: The Spainish American War

Create a believable scenario wherein the Spanish defeat the United States. It can be an altered Spanish empire that never fell, or it can be the Spain that we fought in OTL.
 
Perhaps a bit more stable Spain: for instance Isabel II is born a boy. No carlist wars, probably the first republic is butterflied and the navy is in better shape.
 
Cuban rebels launch a series of strikes, killing off most of the top Spanish officers in Cuba. Unfortunately,since those officers were useless and hopelessly defeatist...

With a new leadership cadre of younger and more ambitious officers the Spanish forces in Cuba change plans. All forces in the province where the Americans are believed to be landing are rushed to the site. Despite a determined effort by the US Navy to drive off the defenders, the landings are a disaster with over 15,000 Americans killed or captured. Adding insult to injury for the Republican President, Theodore Roosevelt is among the captives.

Historical Note: Had the American landings been successful the Spanish squadron might have been forced to emerge from the threatened harbor to face the superior American fleet one ship at a time. Under such circumstances an American victory would have been almost inevitable.

While awaiting a second landing attempt the US fleet is forced to mark time keeping the Spanish squadron bottled up. Nearly a month passes and the Spanish battleship Pelayo and six other cruisers set sail...

To be continued!
 
You could also have an opportunity if the spanish fleet goes to La Habana instead of to Santiago. There they would not be threatened by land, the defenses would be superior and they would not have to abandon the port. The arrival of the Pelayo and other naval units could also help.

As for the Philippines the effectiveness of the gunners in both sides was shameful. The spaniards only achieved a 4% of hits, whereas the northamericans barely a 2% and had almost run out of ammo when Montojo panicked and ordered to sink the spanish vessels. If he had decided to fight closer to the coast the americans would have suffered unbearable (given the lack of bases in the region) and would have had to retreat.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
A simple move to attack the US fleet at Santiago could have worked wonders. OTL Iowa was crippled with the first salvo, and could have been torpedoed and sent to the bottom. Samson was very shakey, and certainly would withdraw (as he started to historically) leaving just Schley's Brooklyn, Texas and Massachussetts, which would probably be overwhelmed.
 
Originally posted by Condottiero
As for the Philippines the effectiveness of the gunners in both sides was shameful. The spaniards only achieved a 4% of hits, whereas the northamericans barely a 2% and had almost run out of ammo when Montojo panicked and ordered to sink the spanish vessels. If he had decided to fight closer to the coast the americans would have suffered unbearable (given the lack of bases in the region) and would have had to retreat.

Totally right, worse even Montojo not only ordered to sink the spanish vessels in an authentic and unjustifiable attack of panick when he had suffered only damage in two ships but also little after this disaster he ordered to surrender all the coastal defences of Manila and surrounding region, Montojo was an authentic shame for the spanish navy and the spanish history (after the war he was processed and dismissed of the navy).

The attitude of Cervera commanding the cuban squadron was not too much beetter, practically since the first moment of assuming the commandament he acted as a derrotist and apathic man, his decisions could be considered own of a man that from the first moment thought that would be defeated and that little could be get against the americans, such attitude was the principal cause of the turkey shoot that the US navy could made against the spanish navy.

Instead of this a different admiral with a different attitude not have bottled his fleet in Santiago because the fear of Cervera to confront the US navy, had acted more intellegently and had expected not in a situation of virtual prison in Santiago but making different actions against the transport ships of the US navy or other minor ships.

as Condottiero says "You could also have an opportunity if the spanish fleet goes to La Habana instead of to Santiago. There they would not be threatened by land, the defenses would be superior and they would not have to abandon the port. The arrival of the Pelayo and other naval units could also help."

It is right, although inferior in numbers the Cervera fleet was not precissely a paper ships fleet, although not completely in combat disposition (the Colon for example because the need of fastness not could mount the 254 mm guns bought in Germany) the ships were in general moderns with the Colon with an armour of 15 mm of steel and of the Garibaldi Class the most modern.

Also with minor operations against secondary ships of the US navy the fleet could elude an indecisive combat with the US fleet while waiting the reinforcements of the Pelayo and Carlos V two modern ships commanded by Camara.

I think that instead Cervera it had been better that Camara had commanded the fleet sent to Cuba, at least he has not showed the derrotist and apathic attitude of Cervera.
 
I read once that Cervera was not to be blamed. He received instructions to act as he acted. It seems that the spanish government believed it was inevitable that Cuba would be lost and the preferred to lose it agaisnt a regional power than against some dirty rebels. According to this theory Cervera had instructions to lose the war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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so, if there's setbacks -

How does the US react politically.

Alot of Americans would think getting involved was stupid.

But, the American middle, professional and business classes might think its do or die time, they must go the route of mobilizing a bigger effort of some sort and whipping up patriotic fervor and hostility towards war objectors.

If that does not work, they face the dread prospect of losing to William Jennings Bryan in the 1900 election.

If there is a disaster in Manila in May or Cuba in June, and the Spanish reinforce, will the US recover by 27 months later?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If there's a retreat from Manila by US,

rather than a defeat, will the US come back later in 98 or 99, or will it forget about the Pacific leg of the war and stayed focused on just the Caribbean.
 
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