AH challenge: The Franco-Japanese War

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have a war between France and Japan by WWI with a POD no earlier than 1880. No other country can participate on either side and you can have WWI begin whenever you feel like it.

 

[tom]

Bump:
This could be interesting. I would want Japan to win (I am inclined to like more powerful Japans...they are a unique and interesting civilization and would make a unique superpower) but my abilities are not up to this.

 

[Nosb]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have a war between France and Japan by WWI with a POD no earlier than 1880. No other country can participate on either side and you can have WWI begin whenever you feel like it.

Germany wins WW1, severally weakening France and setting up little satellites in the East under Germany Princes. England is humbled, but still strong. The US didn't get involved. A little bit after WW1, Germany promises Japan French Indo-China in exchange for an alliance and the repealing of the one they have with Britain. A weakened France defends itself, declares war and sends the Mediterranean Fleet around only to have it smashed (or mutiny) when it gets to the Pacific. France negotiates a peace treaty with Japan were France is fairly compensated and losses Indo-China.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Germany wins WW1, severally weakening France and setting up little satellites in the East under Germany Princes. England is humbled, but still strong. The US didn't get involved. A little bit after WW1, Germany promises Japan French Indo-China in exchange for an alliance and the repealing of the one they have with Britain. A weakened France defends itself, declares war and sends the Mediterranean Fleet around only to have it smashed (or mutiny) when it gets to the Pacific. France negotiates a peace treaty with Japan were France is fairly compensated and losses Indo-China.

So in both this and the other thread I have people ignore me when I say: before WWI.

 

[Jason Sleeman]

Indochina

Maybe Japan Is covetous of Indochina rather than fighting with Russia over Manchuria. Some sort of conflict could come about over trading rights or something. If other Powers stay out, my money would be on Japan winning this one. If the war happens after 1902, Britain and Japan are allies, so that might even have a ripple effect on the Entente Cordiale between Britain and France. Germany wouldn't support France, the Russians would have the most to gain from a Japanese defeat. I can't see other colonial powers getting involved here militarily. I think an execllent timeline could be written during and after such a war.

 

[Alcuin]

Okay, I'll assume that no-earlier than 1880 means that 1880 is allowed.

After taking control of Indochina, the French are looking for more conquests in the area. It was only 13 years since Japan had opened up to the world under duress. Meanwhile, still aching from defeat in the Franco-Prussian war, ten years earlier the French sought a victory that might restore French pride.

The French attack on Macao was perhaps one of the stupidest campaigns of the 19th century. Of course France could handle a war with Portugal but they had not expected Japan to intervene on the Portuguese side. France was forced to back down and lick her wounds.

However, during the following years, France was building, seeking revenge for the humiliation of Macao. Finally, in 1888, France moved to wrest Formosa away from Japan...

 

[mycroft holmes]

1887: Annam and Tonkin are formally incorporated into French Indochina

Tsar Alexander III, and his chief advisor Konstantin Pobedonostsev are assasinated by the revolutionary group People's Will. Though the Russian military and Orthodox church manage to stave off civil war by uniting behind the tsarevich Nicholas II.

Note: This is the POD. There actually was an unsuccessful conspiracy to kill Alexander III, by the same group that successfully killed his father.

1893: Laos is added to French Indochina

1895: After China's defeat in the Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese government signs the Treaty of Shimonoseki (17 April 1895) under which China abandoned its own suzerainty over Korea and ceded Taiwan and Lushunoku (Port Arthur) to Japan.

Germany and France unite in protest of the Japanese conquest of Manchuria but Russia, wracked by increasing Nihilist internal dissent, does not intervene. Germany, France and Britain do use the weakening of the central government of China to seize several ports and expand their spheres of influence in China. Several threatening diplomatic exchanges take place and Japan is forced to return some parts of Manchuria but not Port Arthur or its control by proxy of Korea.

1895-1900: Japan, incensed at what it considers its humiliation by Western Powers enacts the Gashin Shōtan or 'Persevering through Hardship' to increase heavy industry and strength of the armed forces, especially the fleet, at the expense of individual wants and needs.

1897: Kaiser Wilhelm II's ambassador to Japan initials a trade agreement, formally recognizing the Japanese right to Manchuria. The ambassador tries, but fails, to bring Japan into the Triple Alliance due in part to the influence of the British embassy promising increased trade in naval weapons.

1900: Rioting breaks out in Moscow, and continues for several days. It gradually becomes clear the central government is in serious trouble. The majority of troops are withdrawn from Russia's eastern possessions

1901: Japan expands its control over northern Manchuria and takes over Sakhalin island in an almost bloodless conquest. France is the lone European power to protest this move.

France establishes a fortified base and port in Hanoi, the capitol of Tonkin. this is considered a threatening move against Taiwan by the Japanese navy

1906: A Korean radical named Dae Seong-sin attempts to assassinate the Korean Emperor Gojong. Under interrogation, Seong confesses to being in the employ of France and signs a written confession to this extent. Though historians later debate the truth of this confession, it inflamed Japanese public opinion against France

The Japanese navy declares war on France at 12:00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time, May 15th, 1906. The Japanese Navy attacks Hanoi at 3:00 pm, beginning the Franco-Japanese war.

Note: This is obviously a very sparse timeline, largely ignoring Great Britain and most developments in Europe and China. Any suggestions for improvement are welcome. The basic idea is that Russia was severely weakened by revolt and rebellion about 15-20 years earlier than OTL, allowing Japan to expand much more quickly. While both G.B. and Germany took note of this rise and made accommodations to the new power, France did not.

Cordially,

Mycroft

 

[Hendryk]

This is obviously a very sparse timeline, largely ignoring Great Britain and most developments in Europe and China. Any suggestions for improvement are welcome. The basic idea is that Russia was severely weakened by revolt and rebellion about 15-20 years earlier than OTL, allowing Japan to expand much more quickly. While both G.B. and Germany took note of this rise and made accommodations to the new power, France did not.

That's a pretty good idea, though one may argue that altering Russian history to get a war started between France and Japan might be a bit of an overkill--in fact that's a potential ATL in its own right.

A simpler way for war to break out between France and Japan after 1880 would involve a fight over Taiwan. In June 1884, as the Treaty of Hue which formalized French overlordship over Annam had just been signed, China sent troops in Indochina, clashing with French forces at Bac-Le, and in alleged violation of the 1858 Treaty of Tianjin. France reacted with an ultimatum to China, demanding the evacuation of Indochina by Chinese troops and a compensation of 250 million francs. Admiral Amédée Courbet had a battle plan, but French diplomats preferred to extend the ultimatum for another month in order to reach an agreement with China, so that when hostilities did eventually break out, China had reinforced its weak spots, and when Courbet attacked Taiwan he met with fierce resistance. His fleet blocaked the island for several months, but eventually the war ended with a stalemate and a peace treaty was signed in June 1885. So one can think of at least two PODs that would put France in control of Taiwan: either a more bellicose position by the French government, or Courbet deciding, as was hardly uncommon in the heyday of European imperialist expansion, to act on his own authority, before China had time to organize its defence.

France would end up occupying Taiwan, but the annexion would not be recognized either by China or the other powers present in the region (in OTL Britain's position was one of unfriendly neutrality, as it prevented French ships to be resupplied in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the US accepted to loan its pavilion to Chinese junks so that they could flaunt the blockade of Taiwan). So Taiwan would remain a de jure if not a de facto Chinese territory after 1885; and when the First Sino-Japanese War was over in 1895, China could cede the island to Japan regardless. Japan would then demand that the French cease their unlawful occupation of what would from then on be Japanese territory, and you have your casus belli.

 

[Douglas]

I think the Japanese are screwed in an 1895 war, and probably a 1905 war. France is still a great naval power at this time, and while the French navy still must sail from Europe, they can do much better resupplying in Indochina than the Russians were capable of.

 

[Alcuin]

I think the Japanese are screwed in an 1895 war, and probably a 1905 war. France is still a great naval power at this time, and while the French navy still must sail from Europe, they can do much better resupplying in Indochina than the Russians were capable of.

In a 1905 war, there is always the danger that, seeing French success, the Russians might also attack. If this happened, then by the terms of the Anglo-Japanese treaty of 1902, Britain would be obliged to attack France and Russia. No doubt, such a war would bring in Germany and its allies on the British side, and World War One would begin early with France and Russia against England, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy and Japan.

To prevent this happening, France would have to expend diplomatic effort to STOP Russia from intervening on its side. This would be easy enough if the war were quick and decisive but I'm not sure that would be the case. If it drags on too long, France would probably find itself forced to withdraw or face the possibility of a Great War.

 

[mycroft holmes]

A simpler way for war to break out between France and Japan after 1880 would involve a fight over Taiwan. In June 1884, as the Treaty of Hue which formalized French overlordship over Annam had just been signed, China sent troops in Indochina, clashing with French forces at Bac-Le, and in alleged violation of the 1858 Treaty of Tianjin. France reacted with an ultimatum to China, demanding the evacuation of Indochina by Chinese troops and a compensation of 250 million francs. Admiral Amédée Courbet had a battle plan, but French diplomats preferred to extend the ultimatum for another month in order to reach an agreement with China, so that when hostilities did eventually break out, China had reinforced its weak spots, and when Courbet attacked Taiwan he met with fierce resistance. His fleet blocaked the island for several months, but eventually the war ended with a stalemate and a peace treaty was signed in June 1885. So one can think of at least two PODs that would put France in control of Taiwan: either a more bellicose position by the French government, or Courbet deciding, as was hardly uncommon in the heyday of European imperialist expansion, to act on his own authority, before China had time to organize its defence.

France would end up occupying Taiwan, but the annexion would not be recognized either by China or the other powers present in the region (in OTL Britain's position was one of unfriendly neutrality, as it prevented French ships to be resupplied in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the US accepted to loan its pavilion to Chinese junks so that they could flaunt the blockade of Taiwan). So Taiwan would remain a de jure if not a de facto Chinese territory after 1885; and when the First Sino-Japanese War was over in 1895, China could cede the island to Japan regardless. Japan would then demand that the French cease their unlawful occupation of what would from then on be Japanese territory, and you have your casus belli.

While this is simpler and more elegant, part of the challenge was to create a scenario where no other country was involved. I considered an earlier conflict over Taiwan, as it is the most obvious casus belli. But any such struggle would almost certainly involve G.B and certainly involve China which still claimed Taiwan at the time, violating the rules. I'm also not too sure that Great Britain would ever have allowed France a secure island haven in reach of coastal China, it would have interfered mightily with Hong Kong.

As to Japan's ability to defeat the French Navy, I believe an early surprise attack such as the one in my thread (modeled after the real Japanese attack of Port Arthur in OTL), coupled with the huge strides the Japanese navy made in the early 20th century, at least makes it possible.

 

[DuQuense]

1895 POD
After China's defeat in the Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese government signs the Treaty of Shimonoseki (17 April 1895) under which China abandoned its own suzerainty over Korea and ceded Taiwan ,Lushunoku (Port Arthur) and Hainan to Japan.

1898
USS Maine on it's way to Cuba, suffers a paint Explosion, and sinks in Charleston harbor. While some Consperisy Nuts, try blaming Spanish Spies, Most officials agree on the unfortunate accident.

1900
Cuban Independence, Philippine Struggle continues.

1902
Anglo/ Japanese Naval Treaty

1903
While returning to the Consulate, the Japanese Consul in Manila, gets caught up in a Riot, And Shot by the Spanish Soldiers.
Japan bushes aside the Spanish apologies and declares war.

1904
Japanese Forces have occupied the Philippines, Under pressure from Europe and the US, Japan withdraws, except for Basing [Subic Bay] and economic concessions [no restrictions on Japanese investment]

1905
With Japanese bases in Hainan, Formosa, & now the Philippines, France is Feeling threatened. In response France tightens the rescrictions on Japanese Immigration & Investments, in Indo China.
Japan is looking south, so no War with Russia.

1910
Japan is one of the major investors in the Philippines, with a large and growing immigrant community.
Japan has finished it's rebuilding of Subic Bay, and moves a major fleet there to protect it's investments in the Philippines.

Relations with France have been deteriorating, as Japan protests the increasing restrictive regulations involved in doing business with French Indo China.

1912
France moves to shut down Japanese Businesses in French Polynesia, and eject the Japanese Immigrants in Tahiti.
Japan objects, Diplomatic action is replaced by Military action, as the two sides slid into War.

 

[Wendell]

The Chinese could have an interesting part to play in the war.

 

[mycroft holmes]

DuQuesne, don't you have 2 PODs?

The first being China giving japan the island of Hainan as well as the other stuff, the next having the Maine explode elsewhere. Is the second just the result of butterflies?

Also, my interpretation of the 1895 Sino-Japanese war was that Russia was the only European power really afraid of growing Japanese interest since they were the only country neighboring Japan. So I don't see Russia ignoing Japan until WWI

 

[Wendell]

Also, my interpretation of the 1895 Sino-Japanese war was that Russia was the only European power really afraid of growing Japanese interest since they were the only country neighboring Japan. So I don't see Russia ignoing Japan until WWI

Russia was also not that strong in 1905 when compared to other powers. Not facing Japan would maintain Russian prestige, whereas losing to Japan would reduce Russian prestige.