AH Challenge: Switch the Fates of France and Poland

What would it take for the fates of France and Poland to be switched. Turn Poland into a powerful, sustained, stable nation; while turning France into a nation that gets partitioned several times like Poland. This would probably make Poland Germanys primary enemy, like France was in OTL.

Your opinion is solicited and valued!:)
 
On the French side, a POD involving a different Hundred Years War might do the trick to a certain extent. If the Plantagenets focus on maintaining the autonomy and territorial integrity of their French possessions rather than trying to press their claim to the French throne, and to that end they consistently cultivate alliances with French nobles who are also concerned about their own autonomy and privileges, they'd have a pretty good chance of succeeding in keeping the French crown weak and the local power of the French nobles strong.

Alternately, an English victory could also have the desired effect, particularly with a "Henry V lives longer" POD. IIRC from past discussions on this board about that category of PODs, the prevailing view seems to be that the Plantagenet Kings of England and France would wind up ruling primarily from Paris and would be heavily dependent on the goodwill of the French nobility to keep their French crown, and that the personal union would be unlikely to last as in the long run either the Plantagenet would be overthrown in France or they'd have to make so many concessions to power groups in France that England would become dissatisfied. Going off the latter path, we could posit that after a few decades of personal union, the Duke of York leads a rebellion in England that leads to English independence, leaving the Lancastrians still holding France, but now very weakly due to losing their English incomes and armies, and would probably be very dependent on the Estates General or on the personal support of individual nobles to get anything done.
 
I am thinking that Germany when it unites will have everything east of the Meuse river and north of Lyon.

When Italy unites they will get everything east of the Rhone river and south of Lyon.

Great Britain will retain a foothold on the continent, even during those periods when France is united.
 
Its a bit difficult. Poland boarded several large empires; the Hapsburg Germans, the Russians, the Swedes, the Turks. France's borders had it up against the smaller German princlings, Spain, the Italian princely states and mercantile city-states, the Swiss, and the Dutch. Even including the English from across the Channel there's no great land power there that would gobble up, wholly or partially, another major European land power.

Making Poland stronger is much easier than making France weaker unless you go back fairly far - at which point Poland was already strong, making the matter one of simply bludgeoning France to death.
 

MSZ

Banned
Its a bit difficult. Poland bordered several large empires; the Hapsburg Germans, the Russians, the Swedes, the Turks. France's borders had it up against the smaller German princlings, Spain, the Italian princely states and mercantile city-states, the Swiss, and the Dutch. Even including the English from across the Channel there's no great land power there that would gobble up, wholly or partially, another major European land power.

Making Poland stronger is much easier than making France weaker unless you go back fairly far - at which point Poland was already strong, making the matter one of simply bludgeoning France to death.

France was technically surrounded by powerful entities as well - it's luck being geography (the Channel protecting from the Engilsh, the Pyrenees protecting from the Muslims/the Spanish) and the disunity of both North Italy and the HRE. Poland had much less geographic protection (The Dnyepr in the East, the Baltic in the North, the Carpathians in the South) and faced unified empires - Turkey, Sweden, eventually Russia. So the best way to go would be to reverse the situation - have North Italy and at least the western HRE united, while keeping Ruthenia, eastern HRE and Scandinavia disunited.

Let's say that the muslims turn their attention in the Middle Ages from the Balkans to Iberia to fight the Reconquista. Reconquista fails, Iberia is ruled by the Muslims who possibly try to claim territory on the lowlands north of the Pyrenees. Invasions of the Apenninean Penisula lead to North Italy emerging as a somewhat united entity in the XV-XVI century. The hundred year wars sees both the Muslims and Italians and Germans launching opportunistic raids on France - essentialy leading to central power in France being weaker than OTL, and the french realm reduced territorially.

In the meantime, without the Muslims invading the Balkans, Hungary preserves it's status as a Great Power, preventing the rise of the Habsburgs. With the HRE being more involved in the west, the Ordenstaat is weaker (less knights/settlers move to Prussia) and without the Emperors support, falls to Poland. Poland's broader access to sea allow it to claim all of Livonia earlier, denying Sweden territory south of the Gulf of Finland. A stable Polish - Danish alliance might keep Sweden-Finland in check, while allowing Poland to develop a more "westernized economy" - thanks to free passage through the danish straits and more seaports under it's direct control. Thus by the XVI century Poland's western, southern and northern flanks are secure, it's foreign policy mostly concerning preventing any one power claiming all of Ruthenia, the PLC being the greatest power in central Europe.
 
France was technically surrounded by powerful entities as well - it's luck being geography (the Channel protecting from the English, the Pyrenees protecting from the Muslims/the Spanish) and the disunity of both North Italy and the HRE. Poland had much less geographic protection (The Dnyepr in the East, the Baltic in the North, the Carpathians in the South) and faced unified empires - Turkey, Sweden, eventually Russia. So the best way to go would be to reverse the situation - have North Italy and at least the western HRE united, while keeping Ruthenia, eastern HRE and Scandinavia disunited.

Let's say that the muslims turn their attention in the Middle Ages from the Balkans to Iberia to fight the Reconquista. Reconquista fails, Iberia is ruled by the Muslims who possibly try to claim territory on the lowlands north of the Pyrenees. Invasions of the Apenninean Penisula lead to North Italy emerging as a somewhat united entity in the XV-XVI century. The hundred year wars sees both the Muslims and Italians and Germans launching opportunistic raids on France - essentially leading to central power in France being weaker than OTL, and the french realm reduced territorially.

In the meantime, without the Muslims invading the Balkans, Hungary preserves it's status as a Great Power, preventing the rise of the Habsburgs. With the HRE being more involved in the west, the Ordenstaat is weaker (less knights/settlers move to Prussia) and without the Emperors support, falls to Poland. Poland's broader access to sea allow it to claim all of Livonia earlier, denying Sweden territory south of the Gulf of Finland. A stable Polish - Danish alliance might keep Sweden-Finland in check, while allowing Poland to develop a more "westernized economy" - thanks to free passage through the danish straits and more seaports under it's direct control. Thus by the XVI century Poland's western, southern and northern flanks are secure, it's foreign policy mostly concerning preventing any one power claiming all of Ruthenia, the PLC being the greatest power in central Europe.

There would have to be a POD to prevent the Muslims from gaining a foothold in the Balkans. This would make a push through the Iberian peninsula more viable. This could lead to France becoming "balkanized" as it is fought over by the Muslims, English, Germans and Italians.
 
I have been doing some research and I believe the best way to blunt the Muslim invasion of the Balkans is to have the Byzantine Empire survive. If they can win at the Battle of Manzikert in 1071, it should blunt the Turkish immigration of Anatolia. Constantinople does not fall to Islam in 1453, and the Byzantine Empire survives and eventually covers Anatolia.

The Muslims, prevented from crossing into the Balkans, push across North Africa, crosses the Straits of Gibralter and into Iberia. The Reconquista fails and Iberia becomes a Muslim state. France becomes what the Balkans were in OTL, as the Muslims push out of the Pyrenees.

Eastern Europe is now more stable and prosperous. Poland remains a stable, first world power.
 

iddt3

Donor
I have been doing some research and I believe the best way to blunt the Muslim invasion of the Balkans is to have the Byzantine Empire survive. If they can win at the Battle of Manzikert in 1071, it should blunt the Turkish immigration of Anatolia. Constantinople does not fall to Islam in 1453, and the Byzantine Empire survives and eventually covers Anatolia.

The Muslims, prevented from crossing into the Balkans, push across North Africa, crosses the Straits of Gibralter and into Iberia. The Reconquista fails and Iberia becomes a Muslim state. France becomes what the Balkans were in OTL, as the Muslims push out of the Pyrenees.

Eastern Europe is now more stable and prosperous. Poland remains a stable, first world power.

"Muslims" at this point are not a homogenous empire. It was the turks pushing into the balkans while it was arabs in iberia. Distinct theaters, distinct groups. You can stop the reconquesta but not that way.
 
"Muslims" at this point are not a homogenous empire. It was the turks pushing into the balkans while it was arabs in iberia. Distinct theaters, distinct groups. You can stop the reconquesta but not that way.

You are correct, I should have done some additional research! I wonder if the scenario I described would have led to a large number of Turks converting to Christianity in order to settle and prosper in Byzantine Anatolia?
 
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