AH Challenge: Stable Mexico

[DuQuense]

Well, who will go there? Mexico doesn't have AS strong of a Naval tradition. I can see that changing by the late 1800s, but not before the US gets a toehold in Hawaii, I think..

in 1864 Maximilian set up a maritime bureau to promote Mexican shipping. In 1866 Juarez's new government abolished the Bureau and sold all the ships to a US shipping Company.
You almost need a separate POD just to get Mexico to recognize the need for a Maritime Tradition.


In 1819 the US signed the Adams-Otis treaty with Spain Buying Spanish Florida and Spanish Oregon, and establishing the Border.
No Money changed hands between the countries, instead the US agreed to assume several million dollars of Spanish Debt.

In 1821 the US and Mexico signed a treaty recognizing the borders as set in Adams-Otis.

However one of the Main problems Mexico had in the early days was being Broke due to the Moneys needed to pay off the Dons that returned to Spain under the 1819 peace treaty.

So lets combine these along with Agustín de Iturbide.

POD 1821

Negotiation are under way regarding the US Mexico Border when Agustín de Iturbide, has a Brain Storm.
He offers to sell all of Mexico north of the 37oN line, in return for the US assuming the debt to the Dons, plus a little gold [paid in ten installments] for the new but empty Mexican Treasury.
The US counters with the 35oN, and negotiation ends with the new US/Mexican border being the Sabine north to the 36oN then West to the South Seas.[ this is just north of Santa Fe ][ top of Texas hat???].
Most people don't care as all this is seen at the time as waste land & desert.

1823
Agustín de Iturbide gets in the same troubles as OTL and is kicked out.

1824
1824 Constitution is passed as OTL except added
5. Territories & States of Mexico 1824
The parts of this Federation, are the States and Territories as follows: The State of the Chiapas, Chiuahua, Coahuila and Texas, Durango, Guanajuato, Mexico, Michoacan, New Leon, Oajaca, Puebla de los Angeles, Quetaro, Son Luis Potosi, Sinora and Sinaloa, Tobasco, Tumaulipas, Vera Cruz, Xalisco, Yucatan Tacatecas; the Territory of Upper Caliafomia, Lower Caliafomia, Colima and Santa Fe of New Mexico---a constitutional law shall fix the character of Tlaxcala.
The northern Border shall be the 36oN which it shares with the USA

This Mexico comes into existence, with very little debt, and with 7 payments due from the US to help it pay to get started.

 

[Glen]

in 1864 Maximilian set up a maritime bureau to promote Mexican shipping. In 1866 Juarez's new government abolished the Bureau and sold all the ships to a US shipping Company.
You almost need a separate POD just to get Mexico to recognize the need for a Maritime Tradition.


In 1819 the US signed the Adams-Otis treaty with Spain Buying Spanish Florida and Spanish Oregon, and establishing the Border.
No Money changed hands between the countries, instead the US agreed to assume several million dollars of Spanish Debt.

In 1821 the US and Mexico signed a treaty recognizing the borders as set in Adams-Otis.

However one of the Main problems Mexico had in the early days was being Broke due to the Moneys needed to pay off the Dons that returned to Spain under the 1819 peace treaty.

So lets combine these along with Agustín de Iturbide.

POD 1821

Negotiation are under way regarding the US Mexico Border when Agustín de Iturbide, has a Brain Storm.
He offers to sell all of Mexico north of the 37oN line, in return for the US assuming the debt to the Dons, plus a little gold [paid in ten installments] for the new but empty Mexican Treasury.
The US counters with the 35oN, and negotiation ends with the new US/Mexican border being the Sabine north to the 36oN then West to the South Seas.[ this is just north of Santa Fe ][ top of Texas hat???].
Most people don't care as all this is seen at the time as waste land & desert.

1823
Agustín de Iturbide gets in the same troubles as OTL and is kicked out.

1824
1824 Constitution is passed as OTL except added
5. Territories & States of Mexico 1824
The parts of this Federation, are the States and Territories as follows: The State of the Chiapas, Chiuahua, Coahuila and Texas, Durango, Guanajuato, Mexico, Michoacan, New Leon, Oajaca, Puebla de los Angeles, Quetaro, Son Luis Potosi, Sinora and Sinaloa, Tobasco, Tumaulipas, Vera Cruz, Xalisco, Yucatan Tacatecas; the Territory of Upper Caliafomia, Lower Caliafomia, Colima and Santa Fe of New Mexico---a constitutional law shall fix the character of Tlaxcala.
The northern Border shall be the 36oN which it shares with the USA

This Mexico comes into existence, with very little debt, and with 7 payments due from the US to help it pay to get started.

The bit about making a deal with the US for a Pacific corridor in return for debt transfer and payments makes a lot of sense, and I don't think would be entirely out of the question.

What did you mean, combined with Iturbide?

 

[Glen]

The bit about making a deal with the US for a Pacific corridor in return for debt transfer and payments makes a lot of sense, and I don't think would be entirely out of the question.

What did you mean, combined with Iturbide?

POD 1821

Negotiation are under way regarding the US Mexico Border when Agustín de Iturbide, has a Brain Storm.
He offers to sell all of Mexico north of the 37oN line, in return for the US assuming the debt to the Dons, plus a little gold [paid in ten installments] for the new but empty Mexican Treasury.
The US counters with the 35oN, and negotiation ends with the new US/Mexican border being the Sabine north to the 36oN then West to the South Seas.[ this is just north of Santa Fe ][ top of Texas hat???].
Most people don't care as all this is seen at the time as waste land & desert.

Okay, thought about this a little and there's a couple problems with 36 degrees all the way across west of the Sabine. First, that would actually give back land granted to the US with the Adams-Onis Treaty. If we were to just give where 36 degrees hits the Adams-Onis line it would be at the 100th meridian. You may also have meant to have the border extend to the end of the Red River, then north to the 36th parallel, which would be closer to what I suspect you intended.

However, there is another more significant problem with that - Santa Fe. The Mexicans won't want the US border that close to the capitol of New Mexico. Even the original proposal of 37 degrees is probably closer than Iturbide would have offered. Iturbide is more likely to offer everything north of the 38th parallel after the Arkansas turns to the north. The US would be somewhat aware of this issue, but insensitive to it, and they'd be thinking ahead to how to divide the territory into states, and two tiers of 3 degree tall states would probably be attractive to them, so I think they'd suggest the 36th parallel from the 100th meridian to the Pacific.

I can see a compromise proposal that starts with the Iturbide suggestion of 38 degrees from where the Arkansas turns North, but only until it bisects the Colorado, then following the Colorado until it finally turns South (rather than Southwest, basically where Lake Mead is now), then runs due West along the 36th parallel to the Pacific. That would provide Mexico with a decent buffer and the US with a decent corridor.

 

[Glen]

A map showing in red the proposed US borders after the compromise deal with Iturbide in 1821. Modern borders are maintained in black. Note that the Oregon Territory is still in dispute at this time and thus shown as outside the US border.

 

[Glen]

With a stable Mexico (and thus no Texas to annex) AND an excellent Pacific Port (Buena Yerba AKA San Francisco) from as far back as 1821, the US has less reason to fight for 49th parallel all the way to the sea, so settles for it all the way to the Columbia and following the Columbia thereafter. This part of the Columbia is the end part of a main trail for both the Oregon Trail and Canada, so it makes sense to preserve it for both in this sort of situation.

See the attached map which would be sometime in the early 1840s, again US borders in Red, black borders are OTL.

 

[Glen]

A dividing line at the 36th parallel for California nicely puts all the watershed for the San Francisco Bay in the USA.

 

[DuQuense]

What did you mean, combined with Iturbide?

I figured that Iturbide would get the Blame for selling off part of Mexico, before the OP of 1824 Constitution.

 

[Glen]

I figured that Iturbide would get the Blame for selling off part of Mexico, before the OP of 1824 Constitution.

Actually, that's pretty good. On the other hand, if they sell off relatively uninhabited lands as opposed to losing it, it would be perhaps less of an issue.

What do you think of my border suggestions?

 

[stevep]

With a stable Mexico (and thus no Texas to annex) AND an excellent Pacific Port (Buena Yerba AKA San Francisco) from as far back as 1821, the US has less reason to fight for 49th parallel all the way to the sea, so settles for it all the way to the Columbia and following the Columbia thereafter. This part of the Columbia is the end part of a main trail for both the Oregon Trail and Canada, so it makes sense to preserve it for both in this sort of situation.

See the attached map which would be sometime in the early 1840s, again US borders in Red, black borders are OTL.

Glen

Another reason why this might occur. Depends on the realtive ease of commucations comparing Oregon to California. Unless the latter is markedly more difficult to get to I would suspect that at least some of those who went to Oregon OTL would be drawn southwards instead so American's population in the region would be less.

If America gets this land a generation earlier then presumably that also accelerates all the arguments about slave v free control of the region. Which is partly away from the question of a more stable Mexico but if the US has an earlier civil war that would have impacts.

Steve

 

[Glen]

Glen

Another reason why this might occur. Depends on the realtive ease of commucations comparing Oregon to California. Unless the latter is markedly more difficult to get to I would suspect that at least some of those who went to Oregon OTL would be drawn southwards instead so American's population in the region would be less.

Agreed.

If America gets this land a generation earlier then presumably that also accelerates all the arguments about slave v free control of the region. Which is partly away from the question of a more stable Mexico but if the US has an earlier civil war that would have impacts.
Steve

Hmmm....true, true. However, the people who make the Compromises that worked are the same, so they just deal with the facts on the ground to make a workable compromise. It was when Popular Sovereignty turned it into a free-for-all that the wheels really came off the bus....

 

[jycee]

For starters you need the coup by Bustamante and Santa Anna to fail. Even better if they are executed or killed for treason. With them out of the way the 1824 Republic can survive longer. Hopefully to stability. Vicente Guerrero finishes his presidency; the following presidents fend off the Spanish in 1829 giving the republic a boost in popularity and stability.

Next thing is fix Texas and Yucatan. Yucatan is easier much of the violence seen in the Caste Wars was actually a direct cause of the war in Texas. The best way to avoid trouble in Yucatan in Mexico's early year is to ignore Yucatan until Mexico gets some railroads and connects its territories. I like the idea of having a local dictator but you need one also loyal to a unified Mexico (Andres Quintana Roo could work).

Texas is harder since you have the US which will very much stop at nothing to get Texas. Loss of territory here is probably a must. But fist thing is that needs to be fix is that Texas is granted status of its own, not one together with Coahuila. If Texas is given enough autonomy (within the constitution ei. no slaves and catholic religion for all) the Texas Revolution might be butterflied away. But even so the US will want the territory.

Next up you need a competent president during any conflict (political or military) with the US. If the 1824 constitution has managed to stay for this long then there is no power rotation as in OTL. Even if a war breaks out Mexico will do much better. If the war breaks out Mexico's best chance is to survive until a change of power in the US (it is easier than what it seems).
Mexico might still have to compromise and loose some territory. The best case scenario would be to sell Texas with a Nueces border, thus Laredo, El Paso and Santa Fe (in New Mexico) remain Mexican.

The US manages to win all the Oregon territory and thus Manifest Destiny is satisfied anyway and Mexico keeps California.

After the war by the mid-late 1800s Mexico undergoes several reforms. The power of the Church is limited, railroads are built, gold is discovered in Cali and immigration from Europe and Asia begins.

If you manage to survive this far with no dictator, coup or civil war. Then I don't see why Mexico can't stay stable till present day. It already survived the worst.

 

[Glen]

For starters you need the coup by Bustamante and Santa Anna to fail. Even better if they are executed or killed for treason. With them out of the way the 1824 Republic can survive longer. Hopefully to stability. Vicente Guerrero finishes his presidency; the following presidents fend off the Spanish in 1829 giving the republic a boost in popularity and stability.

Definite possibility.

Next thing is fix Texas and Yucatan. Yucatan is easier much of the violence seen in the Caste Wars was actually a direct cause of the war in Texas. The best way to avoid trouble in Yucatan in Mexico's early year is to ignore Yucatan until Mexico gets some railroads and connects its territories. I like the idea of having a local dictator but you need one also loyal to a unified Mexico (Andres Quintana Roo could work).

Quintana Roo is quite interesting. However, I don't know that we need worry too much about the Yucatan or Texas so long as the 1824 Constitution is upheld. It was its suspension that resulted in both defections (whether cause or pretext we can argue, but the bottom line is that it won't likely happen without it).

Texas is harder since you have the US which will very much stop at nothing to get Texas. Loss of territory here is probably a must. But first thing is that needs to be fix is that Texas is granted status of its own, not one together with Coahuila. If Texas is given enough autonomy (within the constitution ei. no slaves and catholic religion for all) the Texas Revolution might be butterflied away. But even so the US will want the territory.

The US is interested, but not necessarily going to go for it without a pretext for war. Also, if you have more resistance to American immigration in Texas you take out a lot of the drive for Texas.

Next up you need a competent president during any conflict (political or military) with the US. If the 1824 constitution has managed to stay for this long then there is no power rotation as in OTL. Even if a war breaks out Mexico will do much better. If the war breaks out Mexico's best chance is to survive until a change of power in the US (it is easier than what it seems).
Mexico might still have to compromise and loose some territory. The best case scenario would be to sell Texas with a Nueces border, thus Laredo, El Paso and Santa Fe (in New Mexico) remain Mexican.

A possible variant, though again I do not know that this is absolutely necessary.

The US manages to win all the Oregon territory and thus Manifest Destiny is satisfied anyway and Mexico keeps California.

Oh, there's a lot of room between 42 and 49 degrees, so they need not get all of it (despite my attempts to do just that in multiple timelines<grin>.

After the war by the mid-late 1800s Mexico undergoes several reforms. The power of the Church is limited, railroads are built, gold is discovered in Cali and immigration from Europe and Asia begins.

If you manage to survive this far with no dictator, coup or civil war. Then I don't see why Mexico can't stay stable till present day. It already survived the worst.

Pretty much agree with this last.