AH Challenge:Spring awakening a success

Your alternate history challenge should you choose to except it is the following:

make the spring awakening offensive by the third panzer army a major tactical victory. bonus points if you can make it a strategic victory. your pod can be no earlier than jan 1 1945 bonus points if you dont recall forces from the kurland pocket
 
Its hard to imagine a "Spring Awakening" as any type of success at this point, with Germany being hammered at by the Soviets from the east and Americans and Brits from the West. German war industry was in ruins at this pint, and their ability to conduct offensive operations has been sapped. Even if Soviet forces were to be stopped at any point in late 1944, that would be a temporary setback on their behalf - they would still throw millions of soldiers at the German lines, backed by thousands of T-34 tanks and Il-2 fighter-bombers.

However, one issue that does not get enough attention has to do with Germany possibly fielding jet fighters much earlier than in late 1944 - perhaps in late 1943, or very early in 1944. In this case, Berlin would have an upper technological hand on its adversaries, and assuming that enough of these jets could be built, Soviet and Allied forces may have been slowed in their tracks by Germany's application of advanced air technology.
 
i think there where several strategic decisions taken in early 1945 that had they gone the other way could have made spring awakening something of a success.

number 1 the offensive wasnt launched early enough. Zhukov had many islands of resistance in his rear that where disrupting his supply lines on his drive to the oder. Hitler, by postponing the offensive let him stabilize his lines and withdraw his forward armor.

number 2 the 6th ss panzer army was sent to hungry to duke it out in budapest. this was the strongest formation in the german army and could have made a serious inroad into zhukovs spearhead. they also had experiance operating in conditions of air inferiority.

number 3 the kurland garrison occupied more than a dozen good german infantry divisions that could have been evactuated even partially to stiffen their line to allow more armored forces to concentrate for spring awakening

and last number 4 hitler micro managed the eastern front and sent the panzer divisions on stupid flank marches along partisan infested roads.

assuming the offensive was launched a week or two earlier, the 6th ss panzer army spearheaded the offensive, the kurland garrison fleshed out more of the line, and guderian or wenk was given total tactical control of the offensive i could see them snipping off zhukovs spearheads a la manstein's miracle of the donets
 
But would that be enough? At that point, Germany was running out of soldiers and machines. USSR had both the quantitative and qualitative advantage over Germany in terms of troops, as well as some tanks, planes and other military systems, such as the feared "Katyusha" rocket launchers. Soviets would still send massive wave after massive wave of soldiers against German lines - while Germany was being bombed into the ground by the Allied air forces. Even if Hitler were to manage to slow down Zhukov, it was not 1943 or even 1944 - the tide has turned irreversably againts Germany by January 1945.

What you are proposing would, theoretically, allow the Allies to reach Berlin instead of Soviets, and therefore dictate some of the post-war conditions.
 
over 1200 tanks where allocated to spring awakening although quite a number couldnt participate due to lack of fuel and poor coordination at army group vistuala

a great deal of fuel was burned to send 6th ss panzer army into hungry. the soviets although having a manpower and machinepower advantage fueled by lendlease had reached the bottom of their manpower barrel. they where at this point using poles and prisoners to flesh out their regiments. if spring awakening was conducted in a highely effective way (ie driving all the way down to kurstin and snipping off most of the 2nd guards tank army and assorted rifle divisions. the soviets would have a very hard time sorting themselves out before the us 9th army could walk into berlin.

indeed if the americans rolled up to the oder up the germans backs churchill might finally convince them to keep the soviets out of western europe
 
I would assume that if in January 1945, Soviets were stopped in their tracks by the exhausted Germans, then a nuclear bomb may well have been dropped on a German instead of a Japanese city. It was now a matter of principle - not to allow Germany to survive in its present form, and all strength was spent in order to conquer and remake it. Stalin may have pressed the allies for greater action, and if the Eastern front was somehow stalemated - even this late in the war - then the Americans and Brits may have faced a more determined German force with a meaner bite. Can't imagine Americans wanting to get bogged down in Europe, with the Pacific Front occupying most of their attention. Perhaps a nuclear strike would end the war - Germany was basically prostrate at this point, with its economy and society strained to the limit. Following such a strike, Hitler may have been finally overthrown by his generals, bringing WWII to a slightly different conclusion.
 
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