AH Challenge: Sertorius' Republic survives

wiki said:
On Sulla's return from the East in 83, and following the subsequent collapse of the Populares power, Sertorius retreated to Hispania as proconsul, representing the Populares. The Roman officials in Hispania did not recognize his authority, but Sertorius assumed control as he had an army. Sertorius sought to hold Hispania by sending an army, under Julius Salinator, to fortify the pass through the Pyrenees; however, Sulla's forces, under the command of Gaius Annius, broke through after Salinator was killed by treachery.

Having been obliged to withdraw to North Africa, he carried on a campaign in Mauretania, in which he defeated one of Sulla's generals and captured Tingis (Tangier). This success won him the fame and admiration of the people of Hispania, particularly that of the Lusitanians in the west (in modern Portugal), whom Roman generals and proconsuls of Sulla's party had plundered and oppressed. The Lusitanians then offered Sertorius to be their general, and when arriving to their lands, bringing additional forces from Africa, he held supreme authority and started invading neighbouring territory.

Brave, noble, and gifted with eloquence, Sertorius was just the man to impress them favourably, and the native warriors, whom he organized, spoke of him as the "new Hannibal." His skill as a general was extraordinary, as he repeatedly defeated forces many times his own size. Many Roman refugees and deserters joined him, and with these and his Hispanian volunteers he completely defeated several of Sulla's generals (Fufidius, Lucius Domitius and Thoranius) and drove Quintus Caecilius Metellus Pius, who had been specifically sent against him from Rome, out of Lusitania, or Hispania Ulterior as the Romans called it at the time.

Sertorius owed some of his success to his prodigious ability as a statesman. His goal was to build a stable government in Hispania with the consent and co-operation of the people, whom he wished to civilize along the lines of the Roman model. He established a senate of 300 members, drawn from Roman emigrants (probably including some from the highest nobles of Hispania) and kept a Hispanian bodyguard. For the children of the chief native families he provided a school at Osca (Huesca), where they received a Roman education and even adopted the dress and education of Roman youths, following the Roman practice of taking hostages. Late in his campaign, a revolt of the native people arose and Sertorius killed several of the children that he had sent to school at Osca, and sold many others into slavery

So in what situaton could we have Hispania emerge as an Republic independent of Rome?
 
An independent, Sertorian Hispania's best chance would likely be Sertorious's commanders obeying his orders to not directly engage the armies of Metellus Pius and Pompey in 76-75 BC - at the height of his power. Both Hirtuleius and, I think, Perpenna suffered massive losses in battles which Sertorious told them not to fight. The losses are bitterer for occurring just when Sertorious was beginning to shift from guerilla tactics to direct engagement; his armies were only trained a year or two previously. Give Sertorious a year or two in which to use these armies, rather than having to rebuild them, and I think he could have destroyed both Metellus Pius and Pompey.

With that respite, he can consolidate his territorial gains and his influence and further improve and increase his military forces. By the time Rome sends over the next army, Sertorious could be in too strong a position to dislodge. Rome being harder pressed by Mithridates, pirates and/or a slave rebellion would naturally help.

On a republic: from what I've seen, the modern scholarship is rather sceptical of Sertorious seriously intending to establish an actual republic - the school at Osca and his 'Senate' tend to be seen as, at best, purely pragmatic measures to enhance Sertorious's power and influence among both tribal leaders/petty kings and Roman officers. I suspect the model of government would be rather more akin to that of a Roman province - a military governor with effective imperium, with a council of local spokesmen/elders, maybe similar to the Sicilian Senate, representing the concerns of the Hispanic peoples, organising recruitment and advising the military government.
 
Simple, have the assassination fail. Pompey was on the verge of retreating back to Rome. If the assassination fails...that likely would have happened. Throw in the slave revolts of Spartacus and friends going on at home at the same time and you have an easy recipe for Roman withdrawal, giving Sertorius time to consolidate.
 
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