AH Challenge: Senator Ron Kirk in 2002

Im not sure how many experts we have here on the board on Texas Politics. But, I found myswelf wondering on how can we get a POD to where former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk to be able to win the Texas Senatorial election against John Coryn? How might his victory effect the climate in ol' reliable red Texas? How might it effect the policies of the Federal Government?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I was in the thick of that particular campaign, actually. It was not a wipeout by any means, but not a very close run thing, either. If John Cornyn had made some sort of massive mistake (on the scale of Clayton Williams in 1990), Kirk could have had a good shot at winning.

As far as African-American candidates go, he had the best chance of any in Texas, as his tenure as Dallas Mayor showed that he was no radical leftist and was quite capable of getting on well with business interest. Nopr was Cornyn particularly well known.

Kirk's strategy was to win big on his own turf in Dallas as well as in the Democratic stronghold of Austin, split the vote in San Antonio, while holding down Cornyn's vote in Houston and the rural areas. Alas, the color of a man's skin was still a factor to too many voters in the Lone Star State, and he went down to defeat.

A Kirk victory would have had a substantial impact on Texas politics. After 1994, the Texas Republicans gained a major talking point by the fact that they held every statewide office in Texas. This played a major role in convincing the media and the public that Texas was as Red a state as one could get. With a Kirk victory, the Republicans cannot claim this and the fundamental situation in Texas politics becomes a bit more fluid. A statewide Kirk constituency also helps maintain the organizational strength of the Texas Democratic party, which faded abdly after 1994 IOTL.

Kirk for Governor in 2002?
 

Jasen777

Donor
I don't know about being an expert, but I went to a debate for it at the Kilgore Community College. (True story: Cornyn said he like my t-shirt).

Unfortunately, Kirk didn't come and Cornyn was left to debate the Green Party candidate who was so extreme in Texas political range that it wasn't even funny (he was against the military action in Afghanistan - remember this was in 2002).

Debates hardly ever matter in senate elections though.

Cornyn has to stumble very badly. It's simply a Republican state at this time.
 
It's the 2002 part that hurts the most. Sure the Republicans aren't making big 1994 style gains, but the Democrats sure weren't picking up seats.

Could he run earlier/later with a POD somewhere? 2008, clearly, would probably be a decent year. Except maybe in 2006 there's not a lot of times where a black Democrat is going to win Texas statewide.
 
There was a movement among the Texas Dems to get him to run again, but it never really got off the ground.

Could he be Mayor later, perhaps? Say he gets a House seat for a few years, then runs for Mayor, and finally runs for the Senate in 2008 (toss in a failed run for the Governor's mansion to boost exposure). A little broader experience, a little higher name recognition, and a very good year (at least, as it currently looks) for Democrats.

I just don't see it in 2002, though, without some further back fairly large POD that effects both national and Texas politics.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Could he be Mayor later, perhaps? Say he gets a House seat for a few years, then runs for Mayor, and finally runs for the Senate in 2008 (toss in a failed run for the Governor's mansion to boost exposure). A little broader experience, a little higher name recognition, and a very good year (at least, as it currently looks) for Democrats.

I just don't see it in 2002, though, without some further back fairly large POD that effects both national and Texas politics.

Indeed, as the Obama candidacy is likely to boost turnout among African-American voters and because Cornyn's approval numbers are well below 50%, 2008 might have been a very good year for a Kirk Senate run. Even Bush's approval ratings are below 50% in the Lone Star State these days.

So, suppose he stays as Dallas Mayor for another four years, then runs for Governor in 2006. Perry still wins, but Kirk gets a lot of name recognition and gains a positive statewide image. He would be set up very well for a run in 2008.
 

Jasen777

Donor
Too long of a stay as Dallas Mayor is unlikely to be beneficially to a politician's future chances. It's a toxic environment that brings down everyone eventually. 2008 does represent his best chance for a state-wide office though.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Too long of a stay as Dallas Mayor is unlikely to be beneficially to a politician's future chances. It's a toxic environment that brings down everyone eventually. 2008 does represent his best chance for a state-wide office though.

Maybe. Perhaps Monk's idea of him getting a House seat would be better, though I don't recall there being any competitive House elections in the Dallas area in 2002. Perhaps he might have run for one of the statewide offices other than Senator in 2002, such as Railroad Commissioner (which, despite its name, regulates the oil and gas industry in Texas- go figure).
 
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