AH Challenge: Save the Tartars!

Your challenge: have the Golden Horde (or another Turkic state in the same location) survive to the present in (roughly) its 1400 borders. Any POD (even a pre-Mongol one that involves the Khazars or Volga Bulgaria) is acceptable, but bonus points for making a POD as recent as you can.
 
Giving that no entity that I can think of kept the same borders it had (if it existed) 600 years ago, that alone is really pushing it.

An independent (or more autonomous) tatar state, however, might be doable and would probably imply a Russia-screw. Maybe an Ottoman Empire managing to reform itself earlier, keeping the Crimean Khanate as a buffer state?
A Soviet Union crashing harder and bloodier, with the emergence of an independent Tatar state?
 
Giving that no entity that I can think of kept the same borders it had (if it existed) 600 years ago, that alone is really pushing it.

An independent (or more autonomous) tatar state, however, might be doable and would probably imply a Russia-screw. Maybe an Ottoman Empire managing to reform itself earlier, keeping the Crimean Khanate as a buffer state?
A Soviet Union crashing harder and bloodier, with the emergence of an independent Tatar state?

I didn't mean the exact same borders, just rougly similar-ie, the Horde keeps the Volga valley and southern Ukraine.

I think a good POD would be avoiding the war between the Golden Horde and Timur-it was started by Khan Tokhtamysh of the Golden Horde and resulted in Timur laying waste to much of the Golden Horde's southern territories, including Astrakhan and the capital at Sarai. Without it, Sarai might have been able to retain control of Kazan and Crimea, and it was the Horde's breakup-not anything Muscovy did-that really doomed the Tatars. Muscovy ate the pieces one by one.

I do agree that this scenario would be a major Russian-screw. I doubt a stronger Golden Horde would let Muscovy take over Novgorod, though I can see it falling under Swedish rule eventually. The Polish-LIthuanian union had formed by the time of my POD-assuming it endures, I think the PLC would become "too big to fail" even if it did develop its OTL political issues.
 
A while back someone had the idea that a trade route from Europe to China could be established using the Ob and Irtysh rivers. Ships from Novograd could sail to the Ob and travel up river to the edge of Western China and reach Xian by caravan.

The Sibir Khanate could grow quite rich playing the middle man.
 
A while back someone had the idea that a trade route from Europe to China could be established using the Ob and Irtysh rivers. Ships from Novograd could sail to the Ob and travel up river to the edge of Western China and reach Xian by caravan.

The Sibir Khanate could grow quite rich playing the middle man.

I'm not entirely sure if northern Russia was ice-free enough for that, and at any rate it would only be during the summer.

Though if the Golden Horde can expand all the way to Samarkand (not unimaginable) its possible that they could establish a trade route either across the Caspian Sea or north around it to Sarai (on the lower Volga), from whence merchandise could go to either Crimea to be loaded onto ships or overland to Europe.

Also, as to what I said previously, I've thought about it and I don't think the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth would last in this scenario-Lithuania ultimately agreed to it because they'd lost several wars (and lots of territory) to Muscovy and needed Poland to help them, and here Muscovy is going to be a lot less threatening. I think its likely Lithuania eventually breaks away from Poland, and quite likely Muscovy eventually turns to them for help against the Tartars. Lithuania had already converted to Catholicism before my POD, but the Lithuanian court still used what was basically old Belarussian, and would most likely not switch to Polish ITTL.
 
Okay I don't think recent POD's from 1400 onward can cut it. Muscovy was able to unify by being able the main tax collector of the Mongol Yoke, and from there slowly achieve dominance the other Rus states. You could go with a more personal system where all the Rus princes would all have to pay tribute themselves, instead of allowing one to become more powerful than the others.

Having a more stable Golden Horde can also help.
 

Deleted member 14881

Okay I don't think recent POD's from 1400 onward can cut it. Muscovy was able to unify by being able the main tax collector of the Mongol Yoke, and from there slowly achieve dominance the other Rus states. You could go with a more personal system where all the Rus princes would all have to pay tribute themselves, instead of allowing one to become more powerful than the others.

Having a more stable Golden Horde can also help.

This is true wasn't the Golden Horde really disorganized.
 
I'm not entirely sure if northern Russia was ice-free enough for that, and at any rate it would only be during the summer.

Seasonal trade routes were pretty common at the time. With the markup of luxury goods often in the hundred fold, this would still be many times more profitable than year round trade in grain and wool.
 
This is true wasn't the Golden Horde really disorganized.

Yes, especially in the latter half of the 14th century (when the Russian principalities began to gain in power). In the 1380's, one Khan (Tokhtamysh) was finally able to consolidate power and deal a major defeat to Moscow-but he proceeded to start a war with Timur (yes, that Timur), who invaded the Golden Horde and burned many of its major cities (including the capital, Sarai). The Horde never really recovered, and just a few decades later broke apart into four smaller Khanates (Kazan, Crimea, Astrakhan, and the rump Golden Horde) that Muscovy ate one by one.

So I think the best POD to save the Golden Horde is one internal to it-having Tokhtamysh not start a war with Timur, and having his son and grandson (at least) be reasonable competent as well would definately help things.
 
Yes, especially in the latter half of the 14th century (when the Russian principalities began to gain in power). In the 1380's, one Khan (Tokhtamysh) was finally able to consolidate power and deal a major defeat to Moscow-but he proceeded to start a war with Timur (yes, that Timur), who invaded the Golden Horde and burned many of its major cities (including the capital, Sarai). The Horde never really recovered, and just a few decades later broke apart into four smaller Khanates (Kazan, Crimea, Astrakhan, and the rump Golden Horde) that Muscovy ate one by one.

So I think the best POD to save the Golden Horde is one internal to it-having Tokhtamysh not start a war with Timur, and having his son and grandson (at least) be reasonable competent as well would definately help things.

So it would seem.
 
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