AH Challenge: Russo-German war of 1929

Alright the task is simple explain why Germany and the USSR went to war in 1929. Explain who wins, how they win, and who else is involved.
 
After the Soviet victory in the battle of Warsaw, a communist Poland had been established. (The USSR had considered annexing Poland, but decided not to do so in light of Western opposition. Britain and France considered directly intervening to save Poland, but did not have the political or military will to do so). This put Soviet forces in Poland as "guests" of the new regime and right on the border with Germany. Additionally, the USSR exploits the Soviet-Lithuanian treaty to also put a communist government in power there, with Soviet troops also occupying that country.

The Allies worry about communism spreading to Germany and begin to create more favorable conditions for the Weimar Republic, specifically with regards to reparations and levels of military forces. This allows Germany to rearm slowly and the Germany economy to recover faster.

Within the USSR itself, the triumph over Poland causes the internal conflict over Lenin's succession to go more the way of Trotsky and world revolution. A failed communist rebellion in Italy against Mussolini, as well as communist uprisings in Germany, Finland, Latvia and Estonia throughout the twenties also help Trotsky rise to power and push out Stalin after Lenin's death.

Once in power, Trotsky begins a program of providing aid to communist groups around the world, especially in Europe and Asia. He particularly provides a great deal of money and even arms to the German communist movement.

A failed uprising by the German Communist Party in late 1928 is the trigger for the war. German forces attempt to chase communist guerrillas across the border into Poland. They clash with Soviet forces. Before diplomacy can stop it, a greater war has begun.

As far as how the war would go, I wouldn't profess to being a military expert. My guess would be that the Red Army would be large, but not that advanced, while the German forces would be better and larger than in OTL, but still not that effective, still suffering from the impact of losing WWI.

I believe that a large part of the war would be fought at a civil/guerrilla level as right-wing and left-wing forces in all the involved countries (including perhaps the USSR) would take advantage of the conflict to strike at their opponents and their government.

The next question would be what would the West do? Would Britain and France be willing to openly help Germany? Or would they only send money and arms? I think that Japan would be the most likely to actually attack the USSR, or at least to threaten to.

I think under this scenario, a quick victory could be achieved by the Soviets, overwhelming Germany; this might cause France and Britain to openly intervene of behalf of the Germans and maybe we see West Germany and East Germany 15 years earlier. IMO, though, I think such a war would actually drag on, with no quick victories. And in the worst case scenario, it would turn into a European civil war, as communists and anti-communists fight across the entire continent, perhaps aiding the rise of fascism in response or maybe even leading to an eventual communist victory.
 
If we agree that Hans v. Seeckt was put in charge of the Reichswehr in 1920, then the RW of 1929 will be a highly professional army, trained in mobile warfare (even without tanks).
In addition, the RW is well prepared for rapid enlargement. If France and Britain lift the ban on tanks, aircraft and heavy artillery early, say in 1925, the 1929 RW will represent a very modern and aggressive force.
They will not be strong enough to counter the Soviet Army on a broad front, but where they strike, they will badly maul the Russians.
Soviet advance therefore will very soon become rather slow and methodical, fortifying their conquests, so that the RW cannot re-take it by quick strikes.
That should give time for the former Entente to whatever they want to do and for the RW to grow considerably by mass conscription, using French material (supplied under some kind of lease) to arm the additional divisions.
 
Hitler's coup works. He immeditley begins invading Hungary and Austria. Russia flips out and declares war in 1929. Germany, having less time to prepare for war, is quickly losing. Russia captures and annexes Austria and Hungary, then takes Poland for a military invasion standpoint. Germany is overwhelmed and Hitler kills himself by standing in front of Russian troops. Germany is left with a miniscule army and navy. Russia gets the North and Eastern parts of Germany. :cool:
 
Hitler's coup works. He immeditley begins invading Hungary and Austria. Russia flips out and declares war in 1929. Germany, having less time to prepare for war, is quickly losing. Russia captures and annexes Austria and Hungary, then takes Poland for a military invasion standpoint. Germany is overwhelmed and Hitler kills himself by standing in front of Russian troops. Germany is left with a miniscule army and navy. Russia gets the North and Eastern parts of Germany. :cool:

What? I mean what? Germany takes hungary? Stalin over reacts and hitler ignores mussolini and goes for austria? The noob is strong in this one.
 
I believe that if Poland looked like it was going to fall in 1920 then the reaction of the western powers to Germany would immediatly start to change. It would be very likely that the western allies woul alter the peace terms so as to check soviet expansionism.

Germay would not tolerate having the two soviet states bordering it.
It could be that as a result of this Germany might see a restoration of the monarchy but defiantly the modification of the Versailles Treaty would undermine a Nazi effort to successfully stage a coup. In fact Britain and France might support a German-Soviet Poland War that would see the Geman state regain lost territory and the creation of a Poland that was smaller. It would probably lead to a war with the soviet union.
 

yourworstnightmare

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The western allies would reluctantly back Germany. Poland would be forces to secede territory and become a German puppet. The war would be tough for both sides, but if the Germans won they'd turn west next.
 
No I think that the next step would be to eliminate the soviets from Liuthania and to assure that there was no futher threat of attack by the Soviets on the Reich or its allies. This might mean more fighting leading to a wider Russo-German war that migh drag in Romania. I do not see a war in the west in the cards. The west might be willing to make some border changes in the west along the German Belgian border but I doubt if the French would give up one inch of territory or if the Germans are willing to start another war in the west while there is a chance that the soviets might try something.
 
Soviet Union would yield to almost any demands (short of destruction of Communist system) to avoid war with Germany in 1929. Red Army was real mess at this point. It didn't have tanks worth talking about (several trophy British and French tanks of WWI vintage plus several dozens of locally-produced unlicensed copies of FT-17), air force's materiel had been called "flying coffins" by those very pilots who operated said contraptions and there was no industry able to supply the army with munitions. Even infantry and cavalry units were mostly militia-type regiments, with antiquated equipment and untrained personnel.
 
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