AH Challenge: Russian-German alliance fights a European war (POD 1870)

The challenge is as follow: With a POD no earlier than 1870, make Russia and Germany become allied and at some later time fight a war together against France, the UK and the Ottoman Empire. The time when the war is fought and which other countries that take part is up to you, but the alliance should last until at least the time when the war is finished. What will trigger the war and where will it start?

From earlier discussions where a Russo-German alliance has been discussed, the main problem that has been suggested was that Russia needed big loans in order to industrialize and that Germany did not have enough money to guarantee a loan. I do not have sufficient knowledge to assess this, but if it is a valid argument, it would somehow be part of the challenge to consider how to solve this.

Such an alliance would have obvious benefits for both Germany and Russia, especially for Germany, as the country then could consentrate on its western border and could get resources from Russia. There might be a conflict over the Polish areas, but Russia would be very interested in increasing its influence around the Constantinople area and also had conflicts with Britain in Central Asia. It would probably also be easier to keep the United States outside such a war, as Germany could trade with Russia and therefore would not have to fight an unrestricted submarine warfare. If Germany and Russia were able to win the war quickly, they would probably also avoid social disturbances in their own countries. Since Germany only would have one front and would also be reinforced by Russians, I assume that a quick victory would be more likely than in OTL WW1.
 
Would it help if Alexander II wouldn't assassinate and Friedrich III doesn't get cancer? Leastly AII wanted keep good relationships with Germany, but I don't know if his and FIII's survival is enough, but might be good start.
 
An early collapse of A-H would probably remove a major sticking point between German-Russian relations and remove the need to balance between Austrian and Russian Balkan interests, a task which became impossible with Bismarck's removal from office.

With Russian objectives achieved in the Balkans, Russia is free to concentrate on the Middle East and China, and that directly brings it into a clash with British interests. Given the global nature of the threat, British isolationism becomes untenable and it will have to approach the other global power of the period, France, to shore up its position and 'bottle up' Russia. To this end, the UK appeases France in areas like the Sudan, Indochina, and so on; it will also move faster towards its turn-of-the-century strategy, e.g. making its peace with the US, allying with Japan, and so on.

An A-H collapse scenario also means that Russia will have no incentive to ally with France. The issue of Russia being a significant market for French banks is a valid but not a decisive one - French lending was always guided by French policy (OTL the French government 'encouraged' the banks to give gigantic loans to Serbia as Russia's commitment to the latter strengthened), and Russia would almost certainly forgo French loans for the possibility of significant strategic gain.

OTL Russia needed France to achieve its goals in the Balkans, and France needed Russia in order to deal with Germany; a Franco-Russian alliance therefore made sense. If Russia has already achieved its Balkan goals, then it has nothing to gain from an alignment with France - instead, it would have much to gain from a Germany that can, both on land and on sea, seal off the Russian heartland from the hypothetical Anglo-French alliance.

In such a Europe with Russia and the UK as the two 'poles' (especially since estimates of Russian power would become even more hysterical than OTL), Germany becomes the linchpin state, courted by both sides in an attempt to shift the balance of power decisively to one side. Ultimately, however, it would seem that Germany has everything to lose by joining the UK (since it would have to face the Russian bear on land), and in any case Germany's imperial ambitions will generate tensions with both Britain and France. So it's likely that Germany will align with Russia.

As for the Ottomans joining the UK, that will probably happen as soon as Russia start re-arming the Black Sea Fleet and poses a threat to the Dardanelles.

So with this alliance structure and international situation a UK vs. Russia war could potentially happen, though a Russia-Germany alliance would be so dominant on paper it would require some serious error in statesmanship for the UK and Russia to actually go to war (or if the UK finds strong allies... somewhere). The Balkans/Middle East will still probably be the most likely trigger-points, with things heating up in the 1910s.

Likely participants will be: UK, France, Ottomans, Japan vs. Russia, Germany, Italy (to munch at the French colonial Empire). Each side will have its own proxy Balkan allies, and maybe even Chinese warlords as well. USA might join on the UK side eventually: sub warfare will still appeal to Germany ITL, and the temptation to stop a Russian dominance of Eurasia a la Mackinder will weigh on US decision-making.

The progress of the war will likely be a mix of WWI and Crimean War. A powerful German offensive will crash against similarly powerful French defenses, while Anglo-French-Japanese navies try and disrupt supply lines along the Russian rim. One would imagine Scandinavian neutrality to eventually be violated as operations in the Baltic, as part of operations to capture/defend St. Petersburg, form the main thrust of alliance strategy on both sides.
 
To me it would seem most sensible for Germany to choose an alliance with Russia rather than Austria-Hungary if it proved impossible to ally with both, so I thought the reason why they chose France and Britain was that Germany was not able to give Russia sufficient loans for industrialization (at least that is the explanation that has been given by others in earlier discussions). If Austria-Hungary chose to be enemies with both Germany and Russia, they would be squeezed. In this case, Germany could fight a defensive war against France, while they consentrated on beating AH first with the help of Russia.

It might be that AH would get desperate and would try to come to some sort of compromise against Russia. Theoretically it is also possible that Russia would choose Bulgaria rather than Serbia as their South Slavic ally. If Bulgaria became a sort of Russian puppet, that would increase Russia´s chances of getting control over Constantinople and the Turkish Straits. If Germany and Russia won the war, they, rather than France and Britain, would divide the Ottoman Empire and they would not give up the control of Constantinople easily.
 
I like the A-H collapse idea, even if it's tricky to get without immediately triggering war. Germany will almost certainly absorb Austria and Bohemia, Russia gets a free hand to play in the Balkan, and Hungary gets to limp along (probably puppeted by Germany, but might be Russia instead). Italy takes some land too.

In fact, that might in itself be enough. The collapse of A-H (however it happened) would trigger so many conflicting issues, it's almost sure to trigger war.
 

Perkeo

Banned
The German leaders grow a brain and decide that if they don't want to fight with Russia and France at the same time, they need to make an alliance with either France or Russia. France would be the better choice for Paris AND Berlin, but I cannot imagine either side to grow THAT much brain. So it's Russia then.

Bonus: The Anglo-German arms race suddenly makes sense for Germany. Both Germany and Russia were continental powers with naval ambitions, and together they can actually accomplish something more than bringing Britain to the Entente.
 
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