AH Challenge: Russia in the EU

Yes, with a POD of no earlier than the fall of the Soviet Union, make the Russian Federation a member state of the European Union by January 1, 2010. Please, no WW3, nuclear war, or other gigantic disasters.
Other than that, do whatever it takes!:D
 
Massive new oil finds in Russia. Middle east oil fields more or less destroyed by revolutions, then a final Arabic-Israel war.:D Which means that the EU wants Russia to share its oil.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Not going to happen. Onless Russia find enough oil in 1991 to raise it GNP per capita to over Luxembourg, and why would it then want to be a member?
 
Russia would have the largest block of seats in the European Parliament by a mile. With 142 million people compared to current largest Germanys 82 million.
Would Russia be able to tolerate control from Brussels?
How can the European union be truly European if Vladivostok is a city in it?
 
The EU gets weaker and more like the EEC rather than heading in the federal government direction it is. Then there'd be no problem with Russia joining. So a very different 'Maastricht'
 
The EU gets weaker and more like the EEC rather than heading in the federal government direction it is. Then there'd be no problem with Russia joining. So a very different 'Maastricht'

I agree. For Russia to become EU member the answer lies more in a different EU than an alternate Russia. With a more loose Union, I can see some possibilities.
 
I agree. For Russia to become EU member the answer lies more in a different EU than an alternate Russia. With a more loose Union, I can see some possibilities.
Err, except you have to have a functioning (capitalist) economy to join even the EEC (or even EFTA). We have to have some major butterflies to get the Russian economy working.

Maybe LESS oil, rather than more.
 
Russia would have the largest block of seats in the European Parliament by a mile. With 142 million people compared to current largest Germanys 82 million.
Would Russia be able to tolerate control from Brussels?
How can the European union be truly European if Vladivostok is a city in it?

To be fair most of Russia's population is in European Russia and the EU let Britain in despite the UK having islands dotted all across the globe still under it’s governance.

I know the Russian situation is diffrent but the principle is the same, and Russia is huge there's nothing that can be done about that.
 
Err, except you have to have a functioning (capitalist) economy to join even the EEC (or even EFTA). We have to have some major butterflies to get the Russian economy working.

Maybe LESS oil, rather than more.

There is that, granted. What I was really trying to say was that Russia is 1) too big in terms of population (and the clout size would bring in, say, the European Parliament) and 2) politically potentially too unstable, undemocratic and nationalist (esp. connected to a strongly-rooted "Great Power" mindset) that there is no way I can see W. European democracies accepting Russia in a Union that is even nearly as integrated as the OTL EU has been since, say, the late 80s. Never mind a functioning (capitalist) economy.

A suitably liberalized and smoothly running economy might bring Russia aboard a more loose EU that does not entail Western parliaments handing over (even a partial) right to decide their national matters to Russian policymakers. Russia would have the biggest group in the EU Parliament, after all.
 
The Eurasian Union perhaps? I believe that Russia would only feel compelled to join the EU if it had a severe loss of national identity, major economic crisis, or was feeling threatened by a more powerful enemy. Russia would never join the EU from a position of strength. The EU and Russia would also have to find a common cause to unite them such as a mutual hatred of the USA for example.
 
But those aren't actually part of the UK. Even if they were that's hardly the same thing though is it?

They are part of the UK, so as I said the principle is the same.

There is that, granted. What I was really trying to say was that Russia is 1) too big in terms of population (and the clout size would bring in, say, the European Parliament) and 2) politically potentially too unstable, undemocratic and nationalist (esp. connected to a strongly-rooted "Great Power" mindset) that there is no way I can see W. European democracies accepting Russia in a Union that is even nearly as integrated as the OTL EU has been since, say, the late 80s. Never mind a functioning (capitalist) economy.

A suitably liberalized and smoothly running economy might bring Russia aboard a more loose EU that does not entail Western parliaments handing over (even a partial) right to decide their national matters to Russian policymakers. Russia would have the biggest group in the EU Parliament, after all.

Yeah, we cant let those Asiatics spoil our fruity skittle club.:rolleyes: Politically Russia is stable their economy would be cleaned up & improved by EU membership as would their institutions. The EU is already Russia's biggiest trading partner and we import a lot of stuff from them.

As for their great power mindset it's fairly natural Russia was a superpower after all, do we condemn the French for being nationalists or the USA or any other major country? The ''nationalists'' have been over-hyped they are just interested in money & power not making a new empire.
 
Yeah, we cant let those Asiatics spoil our fruity skittle club.:rolleyes:

You said that, not me.

Politically Russia is stable

Now in the Putin/Medvedev era, yes. In the Yeltsin era, not so much. Referring to my earlier post, I believe post-Soviet Russia would be either unstable or undemocratic for some period of time. Either there is an unstable democracy, shaky because of a lack of tradition, or then power is (as per tradition) centralized in a limited power nexus (like Putin and co.), which in turn leads to limitations in terms of genuine general public participation in representative politics.


their economy would be cleaned up & improved by EU membership as would their institutions.

Probably true. However, I believe the older member states would rather see Russia pull its stuff together outside the Union and only after that allow the country to join. It is just realpolitik and risk management, in my view.


As for their great power mindset it's fairly natural Russia was a superpower after all, do we condemn the French for being nationalists or the USA or any other major country? The ''nationalists'' have been over-hyped they are just interested in money & power not making a new empire.

I am not "condemning" anyone, just pointing out that Russia is a huge country with strong, distinct views about its importance in the world. This is in any case due to lead to some hesitation amongst the big W. European countries about Russia joining the community: it does outweigh any single one of them in many ways, demographic and military among them. France, Germany, Britain and Italy run the Union: they like very much to keep it that way. Countries with problematic politics or a questionable economy can be (and have been) allowed to join, but only if they do not threaten the status quo in a too major way.
 
They are part of the UK, so as I said the principle is the same.

British overseas territories are NOT a part of the UK and NOT a part of the European Union. Constitutionally, French Guiana is a part of France proper and is thus in the European Union. The difference is entirely straightforward.

With regards to Russia, you really need many differences in the way the country developed after 1991. Right now, I can not see Russia ever joining the European Union, it is just far too unstable. You need to get rid of terrorism, of the very low incomes, of the poor healthcare system, and of the wide ranging state control.

Russia just needs to be one big success story!
 
British overseas territories are NOT a part of the UK and NOT a part of the European Union. Constitutionally, French Guiana is a part of France proper and is thus in the European Union. The difference is entirely straightforward.

With regards to Russia, you really need many differences in the way the country developed after 1991. Right now, I can not see Russia ever joining the European Union, it is just far too unstable. You need to get rid of terrorism, of the very low incomes, of the poor healthcare system, and of the wide ranging state control.

Russia just needs to be one big success story!

Ok, Russia's Asian ares need to be treated the same way as French Guiana is.;)

It has to said also Russia healthcare isnt really any worse than a lot of other East European nations such as say Romania, grated Russia is bigger but so too is it's resource base and massive economic potential. I also contend Russia would help to balance out the power of France & Germany who tend to align with each other a lot.
 
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