What if he's a "Walter Mondale"?
Economy tanks in 2004, after another terrorist strike kills key Senators; A different person than Kerry is the Democratic nominee and beats Bush..
U.S. reaches deal with neighboring countries to divide up Iraq into Shiite, Sunnie, and Kurdish regiong, Iran taking one (not sure which is which), Jordan one (weren't their kings related?) and Turkey the northern Kurdish one. Democratic president wins Nobel Peace Pirze. (Okay,, this is very unlikely, but at least theoretically possible.) War over by 2006, economy recovers big-time.
Democratic President is so popular, Republicans feel they don't have a chance; with several key ones dead, a couple others choose not to run. Mike Huckabee is considered, but then "has a revelation from God" that he should go back into the ministry.
Ron Paul, meanwhile, is seen as a hero for pulling seveal people from the wreckage of the terrorist strike. He's remembered well enough that the Republicans, already looking foward to 2012, decide to push him, and he wins the nomination.
Only question, is the peace plan viable, and who replaces Kerry?