AH Challenge, results of a different Union victory:

Inspired from here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=173016


One of the best chances the Union had for a victory that was missed was at Petersburg in 1864 when the Union army could have marched into Richmond behind Robert E. Lee and forced him into a battle he would inevitably have lost in open terrain against superior numbers and firepower where *Grant* chose the terrain first.

If this happens, to be certain Lincoln wins re-election by a landslide, but does a Grant victory over Lee in June of 1864 quite mean the end of the Confederacy the way it did in April 1865? At this point Johnston is by no means near defeat by Sherman and is effectively the most significant Confederate leader left. Would a defeat of the ANV mean he immediately gives up the Ghost?

Obviously the North still wins but what happens if the Union takes Richmond in mid-1864 just as Lincoln's nominated for re-election? Given that in 1864 his re-election in wartime wasn't a given, what would the domestic political butterflies be?
 
I was wondering if Lincoln would want to replace Johnson with Grant but then realized he wanted a Union Democrat badly and that he wouldn't take Grant out of the army until he was sure of victory.

One question is whether, in this situation, Lee will be able to alert the Confederate government in time or if Davis and other key figures might get rounded up as Union cavalry race to be the first to Richmond.
 
I was wondering if Lincoln would want to replace Johnson with Grant but then realized he wanted a Union Democrat badly and that he wouldn't take Grant out of the army until he was sure of victory.

One question is whether, in this situation, Lee will be able to alert the Confederate government in time or if Davis and other key figures might get rounded up as Union cavalry race to be the first to Richmond.

Or alternately what happens if some of them escape and some of them don't. If say, Stephens escapes but Davis is captured, that gives Stephens a President Tyler scenario after the Confederacy has already lost its capital and has really one good army left, the Army of Tennessee, which has won all of one battle and did *that* because its enemies screwed up, not because it was all that good.

If the Confederate government does escape, my guess is that Montgomery reverts back to being the capital of the Confederacy, though what that would mean in itself would be interesting as without Virginia the CSA's lost much of its resources in the naval, capital, and manpower senses.
 
Or alternately what happens if some of them escape and some of them don't. If say, Stephens escapes but Davis is captured, that gives Stephens a President Tyler scenario after the Confederacy has already lost its capital and has really one good army left, the Army of Tennessee, which has won all of one battle and did *that* because its enemies screwed up, not because it was all that good.

If the Confederate government does escape, my guess is that Montgomery reverts back to being the capital of the Confederacy, though what that would mean in itself would be interesting as without Virginia the CSA's lost much of its resources in the naval, capital, and manpower senses.

Davis, not Stephens, was the last ditch man. He'd be looking for the best deal he could get for the South, which by this time wouldn't be much, but better than Unconditional Surrender. What terms would he get? Any ideas, people?

The loss of Lee, and the AoNV, would mean the desertion rate of the other armies will skyrocket, and Johnston wasn't a last ditch man either. Nor Kirby Smith. Not in these circumstances. Basically, the South now faces a situation as if the CSA had something like the original six states secession with the Union totally mobilized, deployed, and on the march. Plus the Confederacy is wrecked, and mostly prostrate.

Resistance in these endtimes would be measured in weeks.
 
Davis, not Stephens, was the last ditch man. He'd be looking for the best deal he could get for the South, which by this time wouldn't be much, but better than Unconditional Surrender. What terms would he get? Any ideas, people?

The loss of Lee, and the AoNV, would mean the desertion rate of the other armies will skyrocket, and Johnston wasn't a last ditch man either. Nor Kirby Smith. Not in these circumstances. Basically, the South now faces a situation as if the CSA had something like the original six states secession with the Union totally mobilized, deployed, and on the march. Plus the Confederacy is wrecked, and mostly prostrate.

Resistance in these endtimes would be measured in weeks.

In which case the question is how the collapse plays out. In this case Unionist sentiment may be both stronger and weaker at the same time. And without the bitterness of the Petersburg Siege the United States may well end up making some key mistakes about underestimating firepower. With a victory on this scale in mid-1864 Lincoln's more moderate peace proposals may well take root, and it's an open question what would happen with the 13th Amendment here. USCT will also not have served to the extent and the degree they did IOTL which would also have social ramifications for this ATL.

The other question I have about a case where the North in fact secures this kind of victory is what happens with things like the Sand Creek Massacre here. And of course the casualties of the late 1864/5 battles (like say all the men killed at Franklin and Nashville) will still be alive and well in this ATL which could have potential butterflies in its own right by virtue of fewer people dying.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Johnston was no fool. If Lee and the AoNV are defeated or forced to surrender, he would know that the Confederacy had no realistic chance of winning the war and would not be willing to waste the lives of his men in a lost cause. His actions IOTL show that he was willing to disobey the orders of President Davis in such matters (Davis ordered him NOT to surrender to Sherman, but Johnston did anyway).

In June/July of 1864, the men of the AoT trusted Johnston as they never trusted any other leader, and almost as much as the men of the AoNV trusted Lee. When news arrived that Lee had surrendered, if Johnston entered into armistice negotiations with Sherman, the men might have been willing to go along with whatever he said.
 
Johnston was no fool. If Lee and the AoNV are defeated or forced to surrender, he would know that the Confederacy had no realistic chance of winning the war and would not be willing to waste the lives of his men in a lost cause. His actions IOTL show that he was willing to disobey the orders of President Davis in such matters (Davis ordered him NOT to surrender to Sherman, but Johnston did anyway).

In June/July of 1864, the men of the AoT trusted Johnston as they never trusted any other leader, and almost as much as the men of the AoNV trusted Lee. When news arrived that Lee had surrendered, if Johnston entered into armistice negotiations with Sherman, the men might have been willing to go along with whatever he said.

So again, what does this mean in a practical sense? If the Confederacy's military leaders surrender that neatly and cleanly such that Lincoln's got a full four years of a second term, given his reconstruction vision was not different in the broad strokes from that of Johnson, what does that mean for *Reconstruction?
 
Lincoln's assassination occurred following his declaration to support Negro Suffrage. That was what pushed the supremely White Supremacist Booth over the edge. Once he was killed, the anger was REALLY unleashed by the Union onto the South.
 
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