AH challenge: Restore the German monarchy

Yay, another challenge :D:p. Seriously, your challenge, if you accept it, is to restore the Hohenzollerns to the throne of Germany with a PoD after 1918. Bonus points if you get them back on the throne by 1933. It doesn't matter how; a parliamentary Westminster-style monarchy is just as fine as a neo-Wilhelmine one by me. It'd be cool if you get Wilhelm II back on the throne IMHO although that's unlikely because he was so unpopular and tied to WWI and Germany's defeat so I'll settle for his son, Crown Prince Wilhelm to make it easier. Please describe your world. Do love those details ;):D.

An additional challenge which I'd like to offer is the restoration of the German Empire after 1945 although I'm satisfied if you just pull off the first challenge.
 

Susano

Banned
Pff, Crown Prince William. A hyperreactionary tool. Now his second son and heir (eldest renounced succesison rights to marry below his station), he is interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Ferdinand,_Prince_of_Prussia ;)

Whoever it is, I see slim chances. Not only William II was discredited, the entire monarchy had been discredited by WW1. Maybe the presidential decree period that IOTL ended in Nazi power could have instead decided to return the Monarchy as a way of legitimation for further unparliamentary cabinet rule, but even that seems unprobable...
 
Alright, so after the British and French threaten an invasion during the Munich Peace Conference there is an internal revoltution with the military taking command. They decide that they want a figurehead that allows them a free hand but would be a face for the new Germany, so Louis Ferdinand is invited back. Germany continues to develop advanced technology and takes a discriminatory but much less homicidal view towards the Jewish population. Over the next decade Germany prospers, though the Sudeten Germans continue to agitate for unification with Germany itself. Then the Soviet Union, having rearmed and reformed, decides it will invade Europe, kicking off World War II. Over the next four years the Russian juggernaut decimates Europe, until a Japan fresh from her conquest of China is brought into the war at the cost of several Asian colonies. Russia is conquered in 1955 and the US has grown wealthy as a supplier to Europe but is about 5 years behind in technology. Russia is fragmented, with Japan getting much of the Pacific coastal areas, the area west between Irkutsk and the Urals becoming its own country, a Euroepan Russia under a restored monarchy, and the various satellite nations being liberated and made protectorates of France, Germany, and the UK.
 
Pff, Crown Prince William. A hyperreactionary tool. Now his second son and heir (eldest renounced succesison rights to marry below his station), he is interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Ferdinand,_Prince_of_Prussia ;)

He seems like everything a king is supposed to be, but seldom is. I'd love to see him on the throne.

I agree with Susano that the chances are low, but the best option I can see is a coup by the military, against either the Republic or the NSDAP. They might maintain a garden-variety junta, but bringing back the Kaiser is another option. The post of Leader the Nazis created seems intended to take the place of the Emperor for the military--a single man to whom they pledge their loyalty. If the military has a crisis of identity post-coup, and one of their own number doesn't step up to the position, they might turn to restoration.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Yay, another challenge :D:p. Seriously, your challenge, if you accept it, is to restore the Hohenzollerns to the throne of Germany with a PoD after 1918. Bonus points if you get them back on the throne by 1933. It doesn't matter how; a parliamentary Westminster-style monarchy is just as fine as a neo-Wilhelmine one by me. It'd be cool if you get Wilhelm II back on the throne IMHO although that's unlikely because he was so unpopular and tied to WWI and Germany's defeat so I'll settle for his son, Crown Prince Wilhelm to make it easier. Please describe your world. Do love those details ;):D.

An additional challenge which I'd like to offer is the restoration of the German Empire after 1945 although I'm satisfied if you just pull off the first challenge.

Not too difficult, actually. The German officer corps and far right parties and movements except the Nazis were monarchist before 1945. If Hitler and the Nazis are butterflied away, but nothing else changes for Weimar, the most likely outcome of Germany's political crisis in the 1930s is to become a conservative-nationalist regime. Alternatively, a successful anti-Nazi military coup occurs when Germany has not gone so deep into defeat that conditional surrender to the Allies becomes the only realistic objective (e.g. before Zitadelle). In both cases it is quite possible that the new regime engineers a monarchical restoration.

There are several "easy" PoDs this can be accomplished:

Early 1933: Hitler died in the trenches, the Nazis remained an obscure fringe party and a neo-Wilhelmine conservative-nationalist mass party rose to fill their political space. It engineers a regime change.

Early 1934: Hitler and Hindenburg have a falling out, the Heer pulls a coup at Hindenburg's command. Alternatively, Hitler bungles the Night of Long Knives, the fight between the two factions of the NSDAP spreads and threatens a civil war, the Heer takes over to "restore order".

September 1938: Chamberlain delays his acceptance of Hitler's terms at Munich by 24 hours, Hitler orders to invade Czechoslovakia, the Heer pulls the planned coup.

November 1938: that Swiss catholic student gets a good shooting spot and kills Hitler. The Nazi leaders fall to infighting, the Heer loses patience with the succession struggle and make a coup.

August 1939: A couple transfers that weakened the anti-Nazi network within the Heer do not occur, the realization that Hitler does not accept any sensible compromise about Poland and is going to drag the Fatherland into a risky general war to enforce loony racist schemes motivates the Heer into a coup.

November 1939: There is no fog in Berlin, Hitler does not leave early and dies in the Burgerbraukeller blast. Chosen successor Goring is not able to stabilize his leadership, a succession fight erupts, the Heer stages a coup.

March 1943: The bomb placed in Hitler's airplane goes off, the planned coup is staged. The new junta signs a compromise peace with Stalin, after a few months the Western Allies do likewise.

Now, it is quite possible that in all these cases a new right-wing German leadership emerges that is dedicated to the republic or unwilling to share power and prestige with a monarch figurehead and is able to enforce such wishes against large part of its power base. The contrary, however, is more plausible.

If this happens, a monarchical restoration is the most likely scenario. To stabilize the new regime, the far right conservative-nationalist mass parties, the officer corps, the old elites, and, in the less authoritarian scenarioes, the liberal and christian democratic mass parties, make a power-sharing compromise and the Hohenzollern figurehead Head of State is part of it.

In the 1933-34 cases, this is most likely going to take the shape of a neo-Wilhelmine semi-authoritarian regime, whileas in the 1938-43 cases, it's going to resemble a British-style (semi-)parliamentary democracy, after the transition from Weimar or the Nazi regime is accomplished. In the first case, it is quite likely that Crown Prince William would take the throne, but it is also possible that he's passed over because his poor performance as a WWI military commander has discredited him, or his identification with pre-WWI Germany would alienate the West. If this happens, or in the 1938-43 cases, Louis Ferdinand is the obvious choice, he has the right mindset to be a British-style constitutional monarch, is a sincere anti-Nazi, and is much respected in the West.

In both cases, the new regime is going to have several broad political similarities, the main difference is whether the government (and the military and civil service) is going to be subject to parliamentary control and whether moderate left-wing parties and trade unions would be allowed (the Nazis and the Communists would be banned in any case, the issue is the SPD). The Constitution is going to be a boad revision of the Weimar one. Civil rights would be restored and Jews would enjoy full equality. There is going to be an elected Reichstag and conservative-nationalist, liberal, and christian-democratic parties would be legal, even if the executive may keep a limited ability to issue decrees. Federal autonomies would be kept, but it is possible that the borders of the Landers are rearranged. In the Kaiserreich scenario, the executive would not be responsible to the Reichstag, it would be so in the British-style scenario. In the Kaiserreich scenario, it is quite possible that the socialist parties and trade unions are banned (although it is likely that in the long term they pressure their way back into legality like they did before 1914), whileas in the British-style scenario they would be legal from the start. The military and the civil service would retain a high degree of influence and autonomy from parliamentary control, with explicit constitutional sanction in the first case, unofficial and less extensive but still effective in the second case.

Economically, the new Germany is still going to prop the welfare state and some amount of state intervention in the economy, even if it remains essentially capitalist and the interests of the wealthy classes get substantial pandering. If the regime takes over in 1933-34, it is still going to use public works and rearmament to combat the great depression, even if the latter shall be at a less breakneck pace. If the regime takes over in 1938-39, it is going to cut military expenditures for a while and boost the consumer sector to balance the economy back from the Nazi excess spending.
 
Last edited:

Eurofed

Banned
As it concerns the foreign policy of such a Germany and its effects on the world, this is in all likelihood a case where butterflies are smoothed out and the lack of the Nazis in power makes a radical difference anyway. I am not willing to re-open the Germanophiles vs. Germanophobes eternal flamewar yet again whether the Western democracies would be willing (and ought) to make a compromise peace with a post-Nazi Germany in 1940-43, so I focus on the pre-WWII scenarioes.

Now, the foreign policy of any non-Nazi, non-Communist 1930s-1940s Germany would be centered on undoing the Versailles settlement, by uniting German minorities with the Reich, revising the Polish border, achieving military parity with the West, and ending the reparations. Other main objectives would be to rebuild an economic-political sphere of influence in Central-Eastern Europe and containing Soviet Russia. Since those objectives would be genuine and not just stepping stones to the Lebensraum and military domination of Europe, they are going to be pursued with rather more tact and moderation than Hitler did.

Specifically, this Germany does not invade Czechoslovakia after Munich or makes a sensible compromise after Hitler did it, and is willing to leave Poland independent if it gets Danzig and the Corridor back. Since all the reasons for Britain and France to pursue appeasement of Germany in the 1930s would still be in place, we can only reason that without Hitler's invasions of Czechoslovakia and Poland that broke it down, such a strategy would be ultimately successful and produce a stable Anglo-Franco-German detente and a settlement where all sensible Versailles grievances of Germany are settled peacefully, it becomes a satisfied power, and WWII as we know it is averted. At that moment, the main issue becomes whether the other potential rogue powers, Soviet Russia and Japan, are still going to unleash a WWII.

Now, a broad scenario description, picking one among the likely PoDs:

ITTL a couple key transfers that that put anti-Nazi conspirators out of key positions in the Heer hierarchy during early 1939 do not occur. The German officer corps, despite their strong anti-Pole feelings, are wary to stage a general conflict with the West about Poland. The realization spreads that Hitler is not out for any sensible compromise to return the "rightful" 1914 borders to the Fatherland, he wants war to conquer all of it and open set up Lebensraum shop. The old pre-Munich coup plans are reactivated, the Heer stage a successful anti-Nazi coup in late August 1939. The Danzig crisis winds down with the regime change.

An Heer junta takes over, purges the Nazis, cuts expenses to stop the budding economic crisis. No charismatic leader or really talented ruler emerges in the junta, and it is split between neo-Wilhelmine and pro-democracy sympathizers, so it makes tentative advances to the leaders of disbanded democratic parties for a power-sharing compromise. They broker a monarchical restoration and continuing influence and autonomy of the officer corps in exchange for return to democracy. The party leaders are willing to deal, the only serious motive of attrition is the fate of the SPD and the trade unions. Elements of the officer corps oppose their legalization, in the end a compromise is reached that makes them partially legal with some limitations.

A new constitution is drafted and approved by plebiscite that enacts a "controlled" conservative democratic restoration under a constitutional Hohenzollern monarchy: civil rights are restored, Conservative, Liberal, and Christian Democratic parties and trade unions are legalized (Nazis and Commies are banned), SPD and socialist trade unions have limitations to their activity (but these are revised away after a few years), a modified Weimar constitution and electoral system are established to restore a British-style constitutional monarchy, reinforce the executive, lower political fragmentation and instability, and ban extremist parties. The Wehrmacht is guaranteed the role of last-instance guardian of the political system in a constitutional crisis (which is revised away after a couple decades) and ample autonomy from parliamentary oversight. Louis Ferdinand of Prussia becomes Kaiser. Federal autonomies are restored, but borders of the Landers are rearranged. Jews get civil rights back. The government is responsible to the Reichstag but it gets substantial safeguards to reinforce it (constructive no confidence, ability to pass legislation with a vote of confidence and determine the parliamentary agenda, a non-proportional electoral system, limited ability to issue decrees). The first Reichstag election returns the majority to a center-right coalition.

After it has stabilized, the new German government goes to Britain and France and proposes a bargain: the Czech are restored to democratic self-rule in internal matters, with a confederal association to Germany that deals with foreign matters, security, economic and currency union, in exchange for Western support for sensible German claims in Poland. Their maximum program are the 1914 borders, their minimum one is Danzig, a land connection to East Prussia, and a revision of the Upper Silesian border. They also offer a renewed naval limitation treaty to Britain, and a reaffirmation of the existing border to France.

Under the table, they effectively make a secret offer to Britain and France: let Germany satisfy its last Versailles grievance and build a sphere of influence in Central/Eastern Europe by peaceful means, and they shall guard it against the Soviets and make not more trouble in Europe.

The democratic/monarchical restoration (and the end of anti-semitism) and the autonomy offer for the Czechs give back Germany some of the goodwill that Hitler had burned with the betrayal of Munich. Therefore Britain is willing to revive the appeasement strategy. The deal is accepted and the Munich II conference convenes to discuss the Polish borders problem. Eventually a compromise is reached about the return to Germany of Danzig, a strip of territory in southern West Prussia through Torun that connects Pomerania and East Prussia (where German presence was concentrated before 1919), and a slice of Upper Silesia according to the 1921 British-Italian proposal. Poland fumes and rages but eventually backs down and accepts the deal, rather than facing a war with Germany and maybe Russia alone.

At this point a potential major divergence about the course of the world exists according to Stalin's and Japan's actions. Stalin may either be cowed by Western-German detente, or be roused to pre-emptive attack. Japan may be cowed too or go for its usual kamikaze expansionist rampage.

If they are cowed, relations between Germany and the Western powers gradually thaw and Western-Central European integration emerges fueled by economic cooperation, still broadly confederal in scope but less far-reaching and supranational than OTL EU. Germany gradually becomes the economic giant of Europe and gets pretty much all the influence it wanted by peaceful means.

Mussolini eventually builds a good enough military and attacks Yugoslavia in cooperation with Hungary and Croatian separatists, he gets Dalmatia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and a satellite Croatia but Western powers and Germany join into containing him from further aggressions. Italy gradually democratizes when he dies.

An indecisive war occurs between Hungary and Transylvania, the great powers enforce a settlement much like the Second Vienna Award.

Japan exhausts itself fighting Chinese insurgency for a decade, eventually pulls out of China proper, but keeps Manchuria. Chinese Civil War occurs, ending in a division between Red North China and capitalist South China.

Russia follows a PRC course after Stalin dies. The USA still become a global powerhouse, but the world remains multipolar, with USA, Germany, and Russia as the top tier powers, followed by Britain, France, Japan, Italy, and South China.

(for the sake of brevity, I skip the analysis of the more complex case where Stalin keeps the peace in Europe, but he still attacks Japan).

Alternatively, Stalin inteprets Western-German detente as a sign that the capitalist powers are closing on him, so he decides for a pre-emptive attack when he feels that the Red Army and Soviet industry are ready, sometime in 1942-43. A WWII much like our own occurs (but destruction is contained to Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and Stalinist atrocities in occupied territories occur instead of the Holocaust), with Stalin in the shoes of Hitler. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are overrun, but the European coalition, supported by USA Land-Lease, stalemate the Red Army someplace in Poland & the Balkans and gradually beat it back. When the Euros get deep in Soviet territory, Russian generals stage an anti-Soviet coup and make a Brest-Litovsk peace.

Japan surely tries to exploit the situation, it may either backstab the Russians in RFE or the Anglo-French in South East Asia. if the former, it comes out of the peace table with Outer Manchuria, the Western powers don't want a Japanese China but Communism is the devil, so they give maximum support to GMD against the Communists and the Ntionalists win the chinese Civil War. They pressure Japan to pull out of China, but recognize its other gains, so it keeps Inner Manchuria and Inner Mongolia and makes Outer Manchuria . If it goes south, events unfold pretty much as OTL, the Soviet defeat is rather quicker since America joins the anti-Soviet coalition.

A multipolar world emerges with the USA and a federal continental EU (forged by wartime cooperation) as the main superpowers, Britain as the "strategic partner" of either the USA or the EU, capitalist China has its rise accelerated by several decades, Japan may be a great power if it was not beaten down to a USA vassal.

Culturally it is a rather different world where Communism, not fascism, is demonized, Stalin's atrocities are the archetype of absolute evil, and far right ideas remain respectable much longer.
 
Last edited:

LittleSpeer

Monthly Donor
Alright, so after the British and French threaten an invasion during the Munich Peace Conference there is an internal revoltution with the military taking command. They decide that they want a figurehead that allows them a free hand but would be a face for the new Germany, so Louis Ferdinand is invited back. Germany continues to develop advanced technology and takes a discriminatory but much less homicidal view towards the Jewish population. Over the next decade Germany prospers, though the Sudeten Germans continue to agitate for unification with Germany itself. Then the Soviet Union, having rearmed and reformed, decides it will invade Europe, kicking off World War II. Over the next four years the Russian juggernaut decimates Europe, until a Japan fresh from her conquest of China is brought into the war at the cost of several Asian colonies. Russia is conquered in 1955 and the US has grown wealthy as a supplier to Europe but is about 5 years behind in technology. Russia is fragmented, with Japan getting much of the Pacific coastal areas, the area west between Irkutsk and the Urals becoming its own country, a Euroepan Russia under a restored monarchy, and the various satellite nations being liberated and made protectorates of France, Germany, and the UK.
now this is a TL that i would like to see.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Alright, so after the British and French threaten an invasion during the Munich Peace Conference there is an internal revoltution with the military taking command.

Making UK and France take an intransigent stance at Munich is a radical change that would likely require changing a lot of other things in the 1930s to be plausible, with butterflies aplenty. Rather, delay their acceptance of german terms by a day or two, Hitler wouls give the order to attack and this would unleash the prepared military coup.

They decide that they want a figurehead that allows them a free hand but would be a face for the new Germany, so Louis Ferdinand is invited back.

Even with a Kaiser figurehead, garden-variety junta rule becomes a strain to sustain against a developed society like Germany in the long run. The mass parties, the civilian elites, the Church, etc. would reorganize with the end of totalitarian Nazi rule and pressure for power-sharing. Moreover, even the most reactionary wing of the officer corps aimed to restore a revised and updated version of the Bismarckian-Wilhelmine model, which was at worst two-thirds democratic, one-third authoritarian.

Germany continues to develop advanced technology and takes a discriminatory but much less homicidal view towards the Jewish population.

While anti-semitism and racism are going to remain respectable longer without the Holocaust, the officer corps and the conservative-nationalists were absolutely not interested in enforcing hard-core discrimination vs. the Jews. Their ideal model, the old Empire, had granted them near-complete civil equality. They are going to keep the Communists illegal, and maybe harass the Poles and the socialists, but they shall scrap the Nazi antisemite laws.

Over the next decade Germany prospers, though the Sudeten Germans continue to agitate for unification with Germany itself.

Far more likely that once the new regime is stabilized, it reopens the Sudeten-Danzig-Corridor issue with a more diplomatically tactful and overtly moderate platform than Hitler, and it essentially gets what he wants. Getting Austria, the Sudetenland, Danzig, and the Corridor was the agenda of the whole German nation since 1919, Hitler just exploited it as an excuse for his imperialist and racist plans. In the 1930s, Britain and France had come to the conclusion that denying the sensible irredentist claims of Germany was not really worth the effort, Hitler only forced their hand when he showed that such claims were only an excuse. This is not a problem with neo-Imperial Germany.

Then the Soviet Union, having rearmed and reformed, decides it will invade Europe, kicking off World War II.

Plausible since 1942-43, putting it into 1951 is far too late, in the mid-1940s the basic Soviet industrialization and modernization of the Red Arm is done, Stalin has no reason to wait further.

Over the next four years the Russian juggernaut decimates Europe, until a Japan fresh from her conquest of China is brought into the war at the cost of several Asian colonies.

Japan as the savior of Europe ? Near-ASB, unless a PoD changes the IJA radically. The Red Army hopelessly dwarfed the IJA in equipment and doctrine. Japan is equally likely to backstab Russia or Europe in this scenario, it's not going to stay quiet until they conquer China (the US embargo ensures it) but if it goes north, the Russian counteroffensive shall kick them all the way back to the Yalu, they shall be forced to pull back a lot of troops from China to shore up the front, which it shall stabilize in southern Manchuria if not the Yalu itself. A stalemate shall ensue, a substantial Japanese counteroffensive is only likely when Euro counteroffensives are pushing Russia to the brink of defeat and large-scale Japanese advances when the Red Army starts to disintegrate. Japanese victories shall occur as an exploitation of European ones, not the other way around.

Provided that initial Soviet advance does not conquer Germany (otherwise the Euros are in a world of trouble if America does not enter the war), final European victory is guaranteed by two factors: properly and fully mobilized, the pooled manpower and industrial resources of Britain, France, Germany, an Italy surpass Soviet ones considerably, and Europe is going to receive a lot of American Land-Lease while Soviet Russia shall not.

Russia is fragmented, with Japan getting much of the Pacific coastal areas, the area west between Irkutsk and the Urals becoming its own country, a Euroepan Russia under a restored monarchy, and the various satellite nations being liberated and made protectorates of France, Germany, and the UK.

Yes, this is a wholly plausible and indeed very likely peace settlement, except I'm not very convinced about the separate Siberia thing. Rather, Central Asia becomes separate nations as Euro satellites. A reasonable settlement is: non-Russian European and Central Asian nationalities become separate states and Euro satellites, possibly including the Don and Kuban Cossacks; Japan gets at least Outer Manchuria, possibly Eastern Siberia up to Lake Baikal. Russia proper keeps most of Siberia, is under Euro occupation for some years, as they enforce de-Communistization, then is restrored to independence under a White Russian regime. This assumes that Stalin fends off likely attempts by his generals to pull a coup when it looks clear that Russia is headed to total defeat (The Euros are not going to make a compromise peace with Stalin anymore than the Allies did with Hitler IOTL). If a Russian Valkyrie succeeds, Russia may avoid Euro occupation, and perhaps keep Eastern Siberia and the Don-Kuban region, but would lose non-Russian lands and Outer Manchuria all the same.
 
Top