AH Challenge: Prevent the Pacific War

While it was very true that the militarists had a lot of power by this date, I am not so sure that even if the war in China had continued that the US would have declared war...


There was a very huge, very influential, and very vocal China Lobby in the US during this period and FDR was savaged on all sides for his "weak" response to the Panay Incident.

A continuing war in China is going to mean a continuing need for resources by Japan and continuing US material/financial/diplomatic support for the KMT. Sooner or later, Japan is going to need resources then currently in other hands in order to continue her war with China and sooner or later US material/financial/diplomatic support is going to be seen by Japan as a problem which needs to be "rectified".

As long as Japan stays in China, war with the US is a distinct possibility.

That said, perhaps a POD during the incident is needed. Another possible way for the militarists to lose power is if Prince Konoe had acted to curb there power during his time as PM (I'm not that sure that this would work).

If your not sure how a POD would work, you have no POD at all.

All but the most hard-core backed down after the emperor's order...

And they were still covertly protected by factions within the government.

... although it did take time.

Again thanks to the political cover afforded by sympathizers within the government.

The various IJA factions leading Japan to war had powerful patrons within the Japanese government who either agreed with their actions or were happy to advantage of the events created by their actions.

And I would argue that it was a very different faction that responsible for the Marco Polo bridge incident.

Don't fall into the trap of thinking of the factions involved as monolithic or even "led" in some traditional fashion. There were no lodge meetings, secret handshakes, or grand masters at work here.

Instead, you had an every shifting welter of inchoate groupings all fervently believing in a Greater Japan and her imperial destiny while all disagreeing on a few of the details of how to achieve that Greater Japan and destiny.

Think of a centipede whose legs all have their own "brain". Each of the legs is wants the centipede to move towards a distant leaf and each of the legs thinks it alone knows the best way to get there. Sometimes the legs act together and sometimes they'll act individually, but the centipede will eventually get to the leaf in question.

Eventually it will get to the leaf and the foot waiting to smash it.
 
There was a very huge, very influential, and very vocal China Lobby in the US during this period and FDR was savaged on all sides for his "weak" response to the Panay Incident.

The China Lobby was powerful, but it would not have been able to make the US declare war on Japan, and was only able to get the Oil embargo after Japan took over Indo-China.

A continuing war in China is going to mean a continuing need for resources by Japan and continuing US material/financial/diplomatic support for the KMT. Sooner or later, Japan is going to need resources then currently in other hands in order to continue her war with China and sooner or later US material/financial/diplomatic support is going to be seen by Japan as a problem which needs to be "rectified".

As long as Japan stays in China, war with the US is a distinct possibility.

Japan could meet it's resource need through import, thus, if there is no oil embargo, there is no need to have a war. That said, the best opportunity may be for a peace between Japan and the KMT in '39 or '38. It is possible that the KMT could ignore Japanese provocation, if the US put enough pressure on them. The China Lobby will hinder this, so there needs to be a way to get them out of the picture.

If your not sure how a POD would work, you have no POD at all.

I don't, I'm just throwing ideas out there.

And they were still covertly protected by factions within the government.



Again thanks to the political cover afforded by sympathizers within the government.

Well I know that the generals did hesitate to take action,and when they did so it was rather weak, I have seen no evidence of them actively supporting the rebels.

The various IJA factions leading Japan to war had powerful patrons within the Japanese government who either agreed with their actions or were happy to advantage of the events created by their actions.

True, the point of this tread was to see what people thought may be able to circumnavigate these elements. If it isn't possible, it isn't possible.
 
IMHO the easiest PoD is Nomonhan ( Khalkhin Gol ) going even worse for the Japanese, the Soviets crush them with even less casualties and they decide to advance further South. In OTL this scare them enough to forget about attacking the SU, what if this defeat makes them more scared even and decide to put many more troops in the North border and reduce the scale ( even try to reach a peace - difficult but not impossible - with the Chinese ).

Not only this butterflies the US blockade, it could make the militarist faction loose the power in Japan properly ...
 
How about this?

The Point of Divergence is in December 1936: Chiang is killed accidentally during the Xi'an incident. This causes the KMT to collapse into a miniature civil war and leads to Japan making even larger gains in the earlier phase of the Chinese Civil War. The real winners in this scenario are the Chinese Communists as they manage to consolidate Chinese resistance under their leadership. As World War II approaches Japan holds even more of China than in OTL with the Chinese Communists leading a persistent insurgency and having control of the inland regions. Due to the communist nature of the Chinese resistance, Western nations such as Britain and the US are less inclined to help them and more inclined to cut a deal with Japan.

Knowing that the Japanese are far less bogged down in China in 1940 in TTL than they were in OTL Churchill decides to play some realpolitik with Japan. In exchange for a free hand in China and increased access to British resources from South East Asia, Japan allies with Britain against Germany? With Japan committing troops to the European Front the Pacific War is surely butterflied away as it makes FDR's decision making process all the more convoluted in TTL.

Perhaps Hong Kong is transfered to Japanese control along with Indochina. Furthermore Japan is guaranteed a certain percentage of resources from South East Asia in exchange for contributing to the conflict with Germany. In addition, Britain agrees to shut down the Burma Road and cease efforts to supply Chinese forces. Seeing the benefits of such an arrangement, Japan agrees and sends a sizable expeditionary force to the Mediterranean Front. Japanese aid leads to a much quicker progression of the war in the Mediterranean with the Japanese learning a number of lessons.

With the invasion of Barbarossa, Japan signs an incredibly controversial treaty with the Soviets, in addition to not attacking them, Japan agrees to provide aid and allow it's ports to be used for Lend-Lease. But the most important aspect of this treaty surrounds China as Japan secretly partitions China between itself and the USSR. Stalin agrees but opts not to invade due to the pressures currently felt on the Eastern Front.

Without Pearl Harbor, the US stays neutral longer, but continues to extend its support to the Allies and eventually enters the war in 1942/43 after continued German violations of US neutrality give FDR enough political clout to declare war. The war itself ends about a year ahead of time with the Western powers doing slightly better in the peace settlement.

At the end of the war however, the Western allies are left with the "problem" of Japan and especially Japan in China. Furthermore the Soviet Union's offensive into Western China is seen by many as the beginning of a new Cold War and the formation of the Russo-Japanese Axis. Relations immediately cool drastically between the Western Allies and both Japan and the USSR. A Third World War does not occur however, yet tensions mount. The UN is still formed and Japan is given China's seat on the security council. FDR believes that the UN is the best way to deal with the problems of Japan and the USSR.

The solidification of the Soviet-Japanese axis in the late 1940's creates an interesting situation in China, as Mao's communist movement is forced to turn increasingly nationalistic in order to remain relevant. Eventually it is decided that "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" and Britain and the US both begin to supply the Chinese resistance with aid and weapons much like they have been with the Ho Chi Minh and other resistance groups in former French Indochina. The resumption of foreign aid to anti-Japanese resistance groups further ratchets up tensions between Japan and the West however seeing the MASSIVE Allied Naval superiority Japan opts not to attack but instead pulls closer to the USSR.

Though the Allies don't fight in Vietnam in TTL I'd imagine they'd fight instead in the Himalayas due to increased Soviet influence there. But things for the Japanese/Soviets are far worse, especially the Japanese. For as the 1950's progress Japan finds itself in a guerrilla war of near unimaginable scale in China and Indochina The mounting casualties and costs of which begin to cripple the Japanese state. In addition a strong anti-war/anti-military movement emerges.

These pressures coupled with the sheer inability of the Japanese to match Allied military strength leads to the collapse of Japanese militarism as the anti-war movement in cooperation with the navy leads a coup against the Army. This is coupled with a revolt in China among the Japanese troops there. However things get ugly when chemical and bacteriological weapons (Japanese answers to nuclear weapons) are used by the Japanese Army against domestic foes. Japan is left devastated and World War III nearly occurs but fortunately cooler heads prevail.

A massive conference is called in Geneva to oversee the division of the now defunct Japanese empire. Much to the displeasure of the Chinese the Soviets are not forced to withdraw from their portion of Occupied China. Japan is also forced to withdraw from it's Pacific mandates as well as all of it's mainland Asian possessions. This conference also leads to major developments in Asian decolonization.

Due to it's increased presence in Central Asia, most notably western China, The USSR also comes under even more strain than in OTL which probably leads to an earlier conclusion to TTL's Cold War.

Thoughts?
 
The best and most plausible way to prevent the 1942-45 Pacific War is to have Japan experience a massive earthquake in 1941, similar to but much more devastating than the 1923 quake. This could give Japan ia "face-saving" way of abandoning its China adventure to spend effort rebuild and repair destroyed cities, naval assets, and military facilities in the home islands. It might also result in international (read US) humanitarian aid/assisntance and result in a change in the political environment in Japan, reducing the power of the militarists. Even a 1-2 year delay could have a major impact on how, or if, Japan sought a war with the US and other western powers.

Some might say ASB, but it's just about as likely as anything else
 
In response to Fearless, I'm not so sure anyone would be willing to allow the Japanese any sort of lenience given the massive humanitarian crisis they were causing that was at the time completely unparalleled. Besides, I'm sure the Soviets would consider the removal of a strong, imperialist neighbor more worthwhile than gaining a few provinces in the Gobi desert. And again, the Allies won't be likely to want anything from the people who are currently running around chopping heads off left and right. Nor do they need the help of an Empire on the other side of the world.
 
How about this?
Snip
Thoughts?

Well I think that for the most part that seems pretty possible, but under those circumstances I'm not sure that Japan would declare war on Germany, more likely they don't get Hong Kong, and make a non-agression pact and/or agree to give economic and military aid to the UK (Think money, not so much weapons).
 
How about this? The Red Army unleashes a pre-emptive strike against the Germans in Poland during Operation Sickle-Cut. Despite the Red Armies weaknesses, the Germans are so chronically weak in Poland due to the French operation that they are pushed back to the Oder within a fortnight. Reinforcements are hurriedly rushed from the western front to hold the line, preventing the French and the BEF from being trapped. The western powers, seeing Germany at it's weakest soon counter attack. In short order they seize the Rhineland, liberate Belgium and Holland and advance into northern Germany. At this point Mussolini throws his lot in with the Allies and invades the Tyrol, creating a third front. Terrified of the Soviets marching on Berlin, those anti-Nazi German Generals assassinate Hitler, installing Beck as President and ask for the conditional peace with the west and Mussolini. The Stalins fury, the Wehrmacht continues to hold the Oder despite his repeated offensives. The Allies occupy all of Germany, putting it under protection from the Soviets and allowing a de-Nazification process to take place. Stalin meanwhile establishes a loyal Polish satellite which stretches from the Curzon Line to the Elbe. A Cold War appears over Europe with both sides preparing for with one another.

The Japanese are also getting increasingly worried by the bear in the north. With the Nazis crushed, Stalin is preparing to renew an old score. The only thing preventing him from throwing the Japnese out of Manchuria is his own paranoia, which states that if he attacks Japan, he will face European invasion. However Sorge has indicated that the west Japanese may very soon be going to war with the west over their criplling embargo. He bides his time, hoping that both sides will wear themselves out allowing him to move in without threat form the west.

The Japanese understand this in a way. Although the embargo is crippling their war effort in China, they fear that the only thing holding the Red Army back form invasion is their strength in Manchuria and China. If they open up a major second front with the Soviets unoccupied, the Reds will ruin everything. With the choice between Soviet invasion and a humiliating step down, the Japanese hold their nose and choose the best option available. By late 1941, Japanese troops are pulling out of China into Manchuria and negotiations with Chinag are ongoing witht he hope of establishing a lasting peace.

The Second Sino-Japanese War comes to end.
 
In response to Fearless, I'm not so sure anyone would be willing to allow the Japanese any sort of lenience given the massive humanitarian crisis they were causing that was at the time completely unparalleled. Besides, I'm sure the Soviets would consider the removal of a strong, imperialist neighbor more worthwhile than gaining a few provinces in the Gobi desert. And again, the Allies won't be likely to want anything from the people who are currently running around chopping heads off left and right. Nor do they need the help of an Empire on the other side of the world.

Well, at the time the westerners saw the Chinese (And the Japanese) as unequal to themselves, and with a war for survival, they may deiced to secure their flank. Same logic for the Soviets, although they may settle for just the non-agression pact and the lend-lease. After the war, none of this really applies, so I don't really see a Moscow-Tokyo axis.
 
How about this?


Good god... I don't even know where to begin... It's as if you've never read a single WW2/Pacific/Japan thread on these boards. I actually had to force myself to continue reading after Britain gives Hong Kong to Japan.

Thoughts?
Yes, but posting them will get me banned.

Have fun with the thread, boys, I'll be avoiding it from here on out like I do with a few others.
 
Well, at the time the westerners saw the Chinese (And the Japanese) as unequal to themselves, and with a war for survival, they may deiced to secure their flank. Same logic for the Soviets, although they may settle for just the non-agression pact and the lend-lease. After the war, none of this really applies, so I don't really see a Moscow-Tokyo axis.
Eh, the racism against foreigners was a bit overblown before the war at least. A lot of the harsh anti-Japanese propaganda derived from just what they were doing over there, and when the war began American advisers were helping the Chinese pretty much immediately.
 
Eh, the racism against foreigners was a bit overblown before the war at least. A lot of the harsh anti-Japanese propaganda derived from just what they were doing over there, and when the war began American advisers were helping the Chinese pretty much immediately.

They may still agree to the treaty due to real politik, but now that I look back on Fearless worrier's proposal, the more I see it as rather....unlikely.
 
Any opinions on mine? :eek:

I though that it looked pretty good, although judging from the Allies performance in OTL, they may have been too slow to take advantage of the situation. I (Unfortunately) have only a very slim knowledge of the Red Army in 1940, so I can't comment on that part of it:(.
 
There are ways of doing this...

But they require loads of research and could result in massive butterflies, both even with points of departures as early as the 1910's and as late as 1940. If one preserves the Anglo-Japanese alliance to do it, then while it would be next to impossible for the U.S. to join the opposing camp, the Americans could make things hard on both London and Tokyo rather than just the latter, as happened to tragic results in our timeline. Furthermore, the right point of departure could still drag the U.S. into a European war, but maintaining the Anglo-Japanese alliance will not do it. In a sense, this makes the requested POD after 1936 easier.

However, such a late point of departure is a problem because the alienation of Japan from the civilized world is already underway. While Japanese militarism is a challenge here, so too is stupid U.S. diplomacy and the obsession of American leaders with propping up a Chinese government that existed only on paper. Therefore, this, while possible, is more challenging than it initially looks.

By the way, do not underestimate KMT internal politics as a factor here too.
 
I though that it looked pretty good, although judging from the Allies performance in OTL, they may have been too slow to take advantage of the situation. I (Unfortunately) have only a very slim knowledge of the Red Army in 1940, so I can't comment on that part of it:(.

Well to put it into perspective, the Soviets outnumbered the Germans by around 3 to 1 that Summer.

I agree that my Allied response time might be a tad fast but even if it was slower you get the same end result.
 
If we are looking for late PODs from about 1939, it is critical to avoid the Tripartite Pact, which should not be difficult because there was no sensible reason for the Japanese, militaristic or peace loving, to sign it! In July 1940, Britain was willing to close the Burma Road but they reopened it in October after Japan had signed the Tripartite Pact in September. There is even a suggestion that U.S. support for China weakened immediately after the fall of France as Clarence Dillon, who was head of Dillon, Read and Co. and was fairly close to President Roosevelt, is reported to have said to Miho Mikitaro on July 3rd 1940 “the China issue, as far as the U.S., Britain and Vichy France were concerned, could be permanently resolved with Japan if Japan decided to take the same position as the U.S. on the European War” (Haruo Iguchi, “Unfinished Business: Ayukawa Yoshisuke and U.S. - Japan relations, 1937 – 1953”, page 131).

So why did quite a few Japanese leaders think signing such an agreement might be a good idea? One reason was that the Japanese Army was very worried by the USSR and needed someone as a counter balance. Thus in Summer 1940 they wanted to believe that Germany had more or less won as that was the first good news for Japan since 1937 and meant that they were no longer alone and surrounded by enemies. The ambassador to Germany, General Oshima, was believed (on this occasion) while the ambassadors to Britain, Sweden and the USA were ignored. Matsuoka, the Foreign Minister is reputed to have believed that if Japan did not sign, the Germans and the USA would simply agree to divide up the World as they were the same race!! Later Matsuoka believed that he was using his pact to persuade Stalin to agree to a non-aggression pact and did not believe Oshima in April 1941 when he signalled that Hitler was about to attack the USSR (the USA and the British could also read the signal and they did believe it). There were also many IJN officers who believed that alliance with Germany would give them the Netherlands East Indies but they were probably a minority and also tended to be lower ranked than others who were more cautious.

Overall everyone realised that none of Britain, the USA or the USSR were friendly and all were blamed for the continued resistance of China. As no one likes to admit to being universally disliked, making an alliance with Germany must have seemed attractive. However, there was by 1940 very good reason to doubt if any agreement with Hitler was worth the cost of the paper. Japan had itself experienced the delight of Germany signing the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact while they were fighting the battle of Khalkhin Gol or Nomonham in 1939. It is surprising that no one pointed out that it would be very hard for Germany to send anything useful to Japan while it was at war with Britain and that Germany would or would not attack the USSR depending on Hitler's judgement of German national interest without taking any notice of any agreements signed with Japan.

So what sort of POD might avoid the Tripartite Pact? One that I have always liked is the wide distribution of a Japanese translation of Mein Kampf. I can imagine that passages such as “If, from to-day onwards, the Aryan influence on Japan would cease – and if we suppose that Europe and America would collapse – then the present progress of Japan in science and technique might still last for a short duration; but within a few decades the inspiration would dry up, and native Japanese character would triumph, while the present civilization would become fossilized and fall back into the sleep from which it was aroused about seventy years ago by the impact of Aryan culture.” would have filled the Japanese with enthusiasm for Hitler's views. In fact, Hitler is also reported to have had a low opinion of the Emperor as revealled in his table talk and a report of such talk could have had some effect.

Keeping to the normal accidents of politics, can we avoid the Yonai government forming until late April 1940? Perhaps a possible POD might have Saitō Takao giving his speech against the Army http://www.jstor.org/pss/133315 in November 1939, so that Yonai would not be asked to form a government for a few more months. Then Yonai's predecessor can deal with the Asama Maru incident and the termination of the US – Japanese Treaty of Commerce. Naturally Yonai will come under pressure during the Summer of 1940 but perhaps the results of the Battle of Britain and news of battles such as Taranto will prevent anyone believing that Britain will be forced to make peace before Yonai falls from power.

Naturally, there are also many early PODs which avoid or limit the Second Sino-Japanese War.
 
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