The scenario you present certainly looks quite plausible to me (and rather clever, too). I like how the Aztecs and Incas ally with one another against the imperialist pale-faces. It also brings to light some details I hadn't known of or considered before. For one, I didn't know that the Incas were significantly stronger and more advanced than the Aztecs in the early 1500s. I would have thought the Aztecs, having established their empire over a century before the Incas, would have had the upper hand over the Incas. It's also interesting that the wheel was not used by the Aztecs or Incas prior to the arrival of the Spanish. Must have been more difficult to build their giant cities. The idea of quarantine must be novel to the New World too. Did they not previously need it because there were relatively few diseases in the New World?
There are a couple problems with this scenario, though. For one, Spain, along with the rest of Europe, is effectively kaput by that point. Second, while the Aztecs and Incas are able to stave off the first wave of Old World invaders, their civilizations are still so very far behind the more advanced Old World civilizations. I would expect that some Old Worlders would eventually come along and ruin the New World civilizations, either by war, economic competition, or more disease. What I would like is to have the Aztecs and Incas advance far enough so as to be capable of defending themselves from a conquistador-type attack by Old Worlders. (They don't necessarily need to be on equal terms; even a "slightly backward" civilization might be adequate.) I think this would require a POD of well before ~1519. The demise of Europe allows the New World civilizations a little more time before extensive contact with the Old World, but they need a better head start in the first place.
The consensus in this and prior discussions on this TL is that the New World requires continual low-level contact with the Old World as far back as possible before extensive colonization by the Old World is attempted. The Vinland proposal, with a POD of ~1000, provides a significant amount of time (which still might not even be enough) for the New World to adapt to Old World disease and technology. The problem is that this POD is well before the formation of the Aztec Empire in 1325, meaning the Aztecs would likely be butterflied away. My original POD of ~1350, though after 1325, may be too late to allow the New World civilizations sufficient time to progress to a stage where they become (and remain) a match for the Old Worlders. Hence my dilemma. Anyone who can solve this will earn my undying gratitude.
Incidentally, according to Wikipedia, Huayna Capac's successor was Huascar, and the cause of Huascar's death was not the plague but his half-brother Atahualpa.
I'm glad someone found my scenario interesting.
Actually, Huascar wasn't the handpicked successor, it was meant to be Ninan Cuyuchi, his favorite son and the one who had been on the campaign trail the longest, aside from Atahualpa. Once Ninan Cuyuchi died from disease, the army chose Atahualpa over Huascar, because Atahualpa had proven himself to be a competent military leader and the most cunning of Huayna Capac's kids after Ninan Cuyuchi. I need to explain one last thing about the Inca empire. The reason the Incas where so successful in expanding and maintaining in such a short time was because their hereditary line of rule from Inca to Inca was to encourage conflict and deviousness in the next Inca. The new Inca was to obtain all royal titles and power, and the rights to the main palace. Everything else, even the stuff inside the palace, was fair game between the other siblings. The more selfish and self-centered wouldn't even oppose their brother taking the throne as long as he respected inheritance law. Only the cunning would fight for the throne, and they would work for it their entire lives. That's why generally, all Incas tended to be competent. Even Atahualpa was very competent, but he had some horrendous luck to be facing aggressive conquistadors.
The Inca picks his successor, and generally one brother might rebel, but 90% of the time, the military is loyal to the new Inca because the military, and the Inca state, is based around the Inca, and handpicked successors have proven to be effective time and time again over oldest, or most ruthless. The reason at the time that Huascar was though to be the most likely candidate was the he was closer to Cuzco, and the main control aparatus of the empire, the capital. But the army didn't like Huascar as he had never proven himself to be militarily capable.
Originally Huayna Capac had planned for the empire to be split into two upon his deathbed, the capitals being Quito and Cuzco, because his handpicked successor was dead and he foresaw fighting. But the belief in Huascar being incompetent was what lead a war between the poorly armed Huascar the diplomat, and Atahualpa the military man. Both where ambitious and didn't want to see the empire split. With my POD, Ninan Cuyuchi makes a full recovery, Huascar becomes the provincial governer, and Atahualpa becomes a leading general(usually brothers became important parts of the government). The civil war IOTL was also going on during the disease epidemics, a few years after it was given the opportunity to reach the southern half of the Inca Empire, devestating Huascar's manpool.
Even with a lack of gunpowder, the Incas could hold out, for one, the tech boom could involve the learning of working metals for war, horse archers, chariots, faster communications and transportation, and a stronger economic boost. Suddenly, laborers are free to produce more food, and to join the military permanently(all males where required to serve duty in the military for one campaign, even the sons of the Inca), minimizing the blow that is disease. You have to remember, that without captured indians, the Andes are an impossible maze to navigate and ambush is a very serious and real threat. The Spanish would have to sail around Argentina to launch an assault by sea, and the Incas where based in the mountains, with seafood providing the diet of their less populous coastal provinces(save Quito). Also, the Incas could develop writing. Something similar to Russian, in which characters look similar to the Latin alphabet, and sound nothing like it, could occur. Or it could be based in Spanish pronounciations if someone is captured and the Incas wisely extract all knowledge possible from him. A POD in which they capture the priest that was with the conquistadors, he reveals writing and a host of other technologies to the Incas, ans the Incas believe it is the will of his god that he speaks of that the Incas have received so many gifts, convert to Christianity mixed heavily with Andean tradition. Of course, as soon as the priest is gone, Christianity could merge with the Andean Sun God religion(as it does today in some parts), and become a hybrid religion dominant throughout the Inca empire.
But how exactly they get writing, let me explain. IOTL, Atahualpa had a meeting with the conquistadors. A priest shows him a bible and asks him to bow before it and accept it as his faith. He refuses after being unable to understand it, and a fight ensues in which Huanya Capac's UNARMED men lose 6,000 men and the conquistadors 1. If they had captured the priest, butterflies could ensue also. Just throwing out more ideas.
It's a longshot.
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