Yes, I'm quoting myself. Added to this might be that the proxy wars lead to actual wars between the two OW civs. Thus they're focused on fighting one another while the NWers are left to their devices. What do you think?
AH Challenge: Prevent the Conquest of Native American Civilizations
- Thread starter Nerdlinger
- Start date
Yes, I'm quoting myself. Added to this might be that the proxy wars lead to actual wars between the two OW civs. Thus they're focused on fighting one another while the NWers are left to their devices. What do you think?
Yea, the actual cause is really quite variable. You can have ecological change like what you described, or I was also thinking of having the Black Death and the Hundred Years War be a lot more destructive...as for the asteroids, it wasn't a single big one, just a bunch (a dozen or so) 2-3 kilometer ones impacting in strategic areas. Enough to destroy civilization, and I'm sure the New World would experience some cold winters for a few years, but Europe would bear the brunt.
Friendly warning about using a deadlier Black Death as your big killer: unless you resort to handwaving, there's almost no realistic way (from a scientific perspective) to make the plague damage Europe significantly more than elsewhere. See here for why I think this way.
The Chicxulub impact was caused by a 10-km wide meteor and sealed the fate of non-avian dinosaurs. It did a hell of a lot more damage than several 2-3 km impacters would, but the effects are similar (if proportionally larger). So I wasn't just talking cold winters, I was talking dust covering the entire globe for over a year, shutting down photosynthesis and leading to massive starvation worldwide (humans and other animals included). I don't have the specific numbers to say how bad it would be, but you might consider reducing the size and/or number of impacters.
There's an impact simulator on this site which shows you what the effects of extraterrestrial impacts on Earth would be like based on parameters like meteor size, density, and speed. It's pretty cool if you like math and science and all that shit.
Have you written (or are you writing) a TL to go with your map? If so, please post it on this site. I'd be very interested to see it.
I liked the idea of the Chinese reaching the Americas before Columbus would have in OTL, and came up with a possible story for how they could have done so in an ATL in which European civilization is virtually wiped out.
The Silk Road was the previous connection between East and West, but with European gone, the West is not supplying or demanding many goods, drying up trade along that route. I'm assuming that even if there are few people left in Europe, the unclaimed land and natural resources in Europe would be desirable for other civilizations. With the Timurids and Turks in the way, the Chinese might see that there is too much land-based competition in their way (and too much distance) to gain direct access to Europe's land and resources. So perhaps an adventurous Zheng He analogue (since the POD is ~1350, Zheng He, born in 1371, is butterflied away) decides to find an overseas route to Europe across the Eastern (a.k.a. Pacific) Ocean in the early 1400s. (AFAIK, the Chinese were not under the misconception that the world was flat, unlike the many Europeans who in OTL doubted Columbus's belief in a round Earth.) Conceivably, to the Chinese, it could be a quicker route than rounding Africa.
Of course, the Chinese expedition does not make it to Europe. Instead, they stumble across Hawaii, and, encouraged by this discovery, they continue on to the Americas, maybe landing in Mexico. Here they encounter the Aztecs and begin to trade with them, with Aztec gold and chocolate being some of the favorite Chinese imports. The length of the journey is somewhat daunting, but their new Hawaiian colony serves as a useful stopover. However, the increasingly isolationist attitude in China results in more limited trade and prevents extensive colonization of the Americas, but trade is not cut off altogether. (I'm not certain why the Chinese would be any more benevolent toward the native Americans than the Western explorers in OTL.)
Old World diseases such as smallpox and measles have their way with the Aztecs and spread throughout the Americas, but in the absence of conquistadors, the native Americans are able to recover without being overrun by Old Worlders. I don't know how long it would take them to evolve resistance to these diseases, nor do I know how they would handle the bubonic plague. In OTL, the plague for some reason did not reach the Americas until the late 19th century, so perhaps its arrival could be similarly delayed in the ATL. With the continual low-level contact with the Chinese, the native Americans could acquire Old World metalworking knowledge and technology, as well as domestic animals and crops (which are both good and bad for the Americas). Perhaps an ambitious, forward-thinking Aztec leader helps to acceleration the adoption and adaptation of Old World tech, giving the native Americans a better chance to ward off future invaders from across the Atlantic.
In the West, Europe has been fought over primarily by the Ottoman Turks and Mamluk Arabs, with the remnants of former European governments ground underfoot in the process. Eventually, the Turks and Arabs begin to extensively explore overseas, although much later than the Europeans in OTL. (Maybe they reach the Americas in the 1700s or 1800s? What time is reasonable? The more time the New World has apart from the western Old World, the better, but I can't delay contact for an unreasonable amount of time.) If the native Americans are given a few centuries of lead time, maybe the Old Worlders establish much smaller colonies in the Americas but cannot colonize too far inland due to native American resistance. Thus, the Aztecs retain control over Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, and the Incas hold onto the western half of South America. And maybe even some tribes of native North Americans form an Aztec-supported coalition which reigns over what in OTL is the central United States.
Does this all sound plausible? Any input is welcome. I think the most crucial (and potentially weakest) parts of the premise are (1) how well the native Americans can develop resistance to Old World diseases; (2) how well they can adopt and adapt Old World technology; and (3) how long after contact with the New World by the Chinese in the early 1400s will contact by the western Old World occur.
Also, Locke, please let me know if this is too close to what you had planned for your timeline. I really don't want to step on anyone's toes or replicate someone else's timeline.
The Silk Road was the previous connection between East and West, but with European gone, the West is not supplying or demanding many goods, drying up trade along that route. I'm assuming that even if there are few people left in Europe, the unclaimed land and natural resources in Europe would be desirable for other civilizations. With the Timurids and Turks in the way, the Chinese might see that there is too much land-based competition in their way (and too much distance) to gain direct access to Europe's land and resources. So perhaps an adventurous Zheng He analogue (since the POD is ~1350, Zheng He, born in 1371, is butterflied away) decides to find an overseas route to Europe across the Eastern (a.k.a. Pacific) Ocean in the early 1400s. (AFAIK, the Chinese were not under the misconception that the world was flat, unlike the many Europeans who in OTL doubted Columbus's belief in a round Earth.) Conceivably, to the Chinese, it could be a quicker route than rounding Africa.
Of course, the Chinese expedition does not make it to Europe. Instead, they stumble across Hawaii, and, encouraged by this discovery, they continue on to the Americas, maybe landing in Mexico. Here they encounter the Aztecs and begin to trade with them, with Aztec gold and chocolate being some of the favorite Chinese imports. The length of the journey is somewhat daunting, but their new Hawaiian colony serves as a useful stopover. However, the increasingly isolationist attitude in China results in more limited trade and prevents extensive colonization of the Americas, but trade is not cut off altogether. (I'm not certain why the Chinese would be any more benevolent toward the native Americans than the Western explorers in OTL.)
Old World diseases such as smallpox and measles have their way with the Aztecs and spread throughout the Americas, but in the absence of conquistadors, the native Americans are able to recover without being overrun by Old Worlders. I don't know how long it would take them to evolve resistance to these diseases, nor do I know how they would handle the bubonic plague. In OTL, the plague for some reason did not reach the Americas until the late 19th century, so perhaps its arrival could be similarly delayed in the ATL. With the continual low-level contact with the Chinese, the native Americans could acquire Old World metalworking knowledge and technology, as well as domestic animals and crops (which are both good and bad for the Americas). Perhaps an ambitious, forward-thinking Aztec leader helps to acceleration the adoption and adaptation of Old World tech, giving the native Americans a better chance to ward off future invaders from across the Atlantic.
In the West, Europe has been fought over primarily by the Ottoman Turks and Mamluk Arabs, with the remnants of former European governments ground underfoot in the process. Eventually, the Turks and Arabs begin to extensively explore overseas, although much later than the Europeans in OTL. (Maybe they reach the Americas in the 1700s or 1800s? What time is reasonable? The more time the New World has apart from the western Old World, the better, but I can't delay contact for an unreasonable amount of time.) If the native Americans are given a few centuries of lead time, maybe the Old Worlders establish much smaller colonies in the Americas but cannot colonize too far inland due to native American resistance. Thus, the Aztecs retain control over Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, and the Incas hold onto the western half of South America. And maybe even some tribes of native North Americans form an Aztec-supported coalition which reigns over what in OTL is the central United States.
Does this all sound plausible? Any input is welcome. I think the most crucial (and potentially weakest) parts of the premise are (1) how well the native Americans can develop resistance to Old World diseases; (2) how well they can adopt and adapt Old World technology; and (3) how long after contact with the New World by the Chinese in the early 1400s will contact by the western Old World occur.
Also, Locke, please let me know if this is too close to what you had planned for your timeline. I really don't want to step on anyone's toes or replicate someone else's timeline.
Valdemar II
Banned
I find Chinese contact unlikely to the level of ASB, the Paficic is over double as wide as the Atlantic, the Chinese treassure ships didn't explore they followed well known trade routes.
If you want some native states to survive, a succesfull Vinland are the best way, yes you lose Easten USA and Canada and maybe the Caribian to European settlers, but it premit the spread of European crops, domesticates animal and technologies to the native civilisations, at the same time the epidemies hit early and at a time the Europeans can't take advantages of it, as result when Iberian states make contact the Americas is filled with slightly backward civilisations rather than civilisations which is 5000 years behind.
If you want some native states to survive, a succesfull Vinland are the best way, yes you lose Easten USA and Canada and maybe the Caribian to European settlers, but it premit the spread of European crops, domesticates animal and technologies to the native civilisations, at the same time the epidemies hit early and at a time the Europeans can't take advantages of it, as result when Iberian states make contact the Americas is filled with slightly backward civilisations rather than civilisations which is 5000 years behind.
Suppose instead of Newfoundland (or Vinland) being colonized by Vikings in ~1000, it is instead colonized by Norwegians in ~1350. I'm trying not to push my POD back too far before the Aztec Empire formed in 1325. Will the 350-year delay mean that the New World civilizations won't have enough time to advance to the "slightly backward" stage by the time the Europeans come to colonize in force?
Recall that this situation involves the destruction of European civilization. This means Iberia was mostly depopulated by disease or natural disaster and/or conquered by Muslim invaders in 1492. Presumably, this also means the New World civilizations have some additional time to progress before being confronted by Columbus-type imperialist Old Worlders. I don't know how much extra time, though, but I'd appreciate an educated guess from anybody who knows this stuff better than me.
Am I mistaken in assuming that any Old World civilizations which come to colonize the New World will do so in force? I just picture conquistadors with more advanced weaponry coming in and riding roughshod over the Aztecs, Incas, and other native Americans. Would Norwegians, Turks, Arabs, or Chinese seek to conquer the New World civilizations just like the Spanish, Portuguese, British, and French did in OTL? Or would they co-exist with the New Worlders in a more peaceful manner?
I'm also concerned that maintaining a pre-1492 connection (even if it's a low-level connection) from the Americas to Europe through "Vinland" will only accelerate the conquest of the New World by the Old. That is, if the Scandinavians who first colonize the Americas in the ATL don't take over the Aztecs, then the Turks/Arabs who find out about the New World through the Vinland connection will do it themselves, and faster than the Europeans did in OTL because they have a better head start. Is this a reasonable concern?
*shameless bump*
Sorry, but I'm still looking for more input on this. Thanks in advance!
Sorry, but I'm still looking for more input on this. Thanks in advance!
It actually isn't that hard. Have a disease outbreak on one of the 3 ships that sailed with Cortez, killing a good chunk of his crew, preferably Cortez himself. They land with weaker diplomacy and the Aztecs view them as hostile and overrun them, and with poor diplomacy no tribes try to revolt against the Aztecs by siding with the Spanish. Terrified, the crew escapes on only 1 boat. The Aztecs burn the other two boats, breed the horses, and keep two arquebusters as religious weapons which they have no clue how to use. The boat returns to Puerto Rico and tells the governor of an advanced nation(nation) of warriors that practice human sacrifice are so skilled that they have bested gunpowder. They are not aware that the Aztecs do not have horses. Horses begin to spread and the Aztecs begin killing any Spanish explorers wandering around them. For the next 20 years, going past the Caribbean is seen as suicide and the Spanish restrain themselves to the Caribbean only and start making a tidy profit from cash crops, and only knowing that the Aztecs are wealthy in gold and probably have many vassals. Eventually, the horses reaches the Inca empire, where Huayna Capac's handpicked successor(who's name eludes me) is alive and well and begins the mass breeding of horses, after seeing indians in Colombia use them effectively against them and defeating an army. Said successor begins to expand into Venezuela and holds the Southern Border, annexing more of modern-day Bolivia. Eventually, contact between the Aztecs and Incas occur. They swap formalities, the Aztecs, seeing as how the Incas are more powerful and advanced, wisely decide to to try anything aggressive. They swap news, and the Aztecs warn the Incas of the Spaniards, and tell them they are to blame for the plagues sweeping across their known world. The Incas begin to hurry expansion of their cavalry and their road systems into Colombia, and begin building fortresses along the coasts. Incas first begin to use the horse for manual labor after their military needs are filled, along with the wheel. A technology boom occurs in the Inca empire with wheel-based manual labor fueling more expansion of their northern territories. The Aztecs do not use the wheel but do use horses for manual labor and military needs. Wild horses have escaped northwards into the great plains, but they are far and few and mainly hunted for food. Quarantine is first used by the Incas by placing isolated individuals to work the harshest fields on the harshest mountains. The Aztecs have been expanding along Central America and have begun threatening Spanish posts in Panama. The Aztecs gather an army and destroy the Spanish colony of Panama(city). The border between the Incas and Aztecs is set at Panama and the Spanish abandon any isolated colonies they may have had in Central and South America.
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That's all I got, assuming succession is smooth. There won't be a civil war between the Incas if Huayna Capac's successor doesn't die via plague. It could really go anywhere from there. Both the Incas and Aztecs where warlike, annex-happy empires so I think their expansion is realistic.
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That's all I got, assuming succession is smooth. There won't be a civil war between the Incas if Huayna Capac's successor doesn't die via plague. It could really go anywhere from there. Both the Incas and Aztecs where warlike, annex-happy empires so I think their expansion is realistic.
AmIndHistoryAuthor
Banned
Yes, no, depends on which group.
One of my favorite PODs involves De Las Casas or Montesinos or someone like minded in charge of the first expedition instead of Columbus. Conversion or trade could've been the driving force instead of a desire for conquest.
None of the groups you name would seek to do exactly the same as Europeans did IOTL. There are also two other groups that did have contact with the Americas, Polynesians and West Africans. Neither of them sought to conquer.
The scenario you present certainly looks quite plausible to me (and rather clever, too). I like how the Aztecs and Incas ally with one another against the imperialist pale-faces. It also brings to light some details I hadn't known of or considered before. For one, I didn't know that the Incas were significantly stronger and more advanced than the Aztecs in the early 1500s. I would have thought the Aztecs, having established their empire over a century before the Incas, would have had the upper hand over the Incas. It's also interesting that the wheel was not used by the Aztecs or Incas prior to the arrival of the Spanish. Must have been more difficult to build their giant cities. The idea of quarantine must be novel to the New World too. Did they not previously need it because there were relatively few diseases in the New World?
There are a couple problems with this scenario, though. For one, Spain, along with the rest of Europe, is effectively kaput by that point. Second, while the Aztecs and Incas are able to stave off the first wave of Old World invaders, their civilizations are still so very far behind the more advanced Old World civilizations. I would expect that some Old Worlders would eventually come along and ruin the New World civilizations, either by war, economic competition, or more disease. What I would like is to have the Aztecs and Incas advance far enough so as to be capable of defending themselves from a conquistador-type attack by Old Worlders. (They don't necessarily need to be on equal terms; even a "slightly backward" civilization might be adequate.) I think this would require a POD of well before ~1519. The demise of Europe allows the New World civilizations a little more time before extensive contact with the Old World, but they need a better head start in the first place.
The consensus in this and prior discussions on this TL is that the New World requires continual low-level contact with the Old World as far back as possible before extensive colonization by the Old World is attempted. The Vinland proposal, with a POD of ~1000, provides a significant amount of time (which still might not even be enough) for the New World to adapt to Old World disease and technology. The problem is that this POD is well before the formation of the Aztec Empire in 1325, meaning the Aztecs would likely be butterflied away. My original POD of ~1350, though after 1325, may be too late to allow the New World civilizations sufficient time to progress to a stage where they become (and remain) a match for the Old Worlders. Hence my dilemma. Anyone who can solve this will earn my undying gratitude.
Incidentally, according to Wikipedia, Huayna Capac's successor was Huascar, and the cause of Huascar's death was not the plague but his half-brother Atahualpa.
I have one. Have those civilizations begin earlier. Keep the Clovis peoples alive. The Maya, Aztec, Inca civilizations will be larger, earlier, and more technologically advanced. Additional civilizations will be founded along the OTL Sacramento-American Rivers from Tahoe to the Bay. Another will act as similrly to the Nile Civilization, along the Mississippi River. and a final will exist from OTL Lake Ontario, covering the state of New York, and follow the St. Lawrence River to the Atlantic. there would be thousands of small tribal states, but those would be the Chinese, British, German, Babylonian, Persian, and Roman equivalents.
Replacing Columbus with a more native-friendly leader would benefit the indigenous Americans, at least for a while anyway. It'd make for an interesting TL, but it doesn't give the New World civilizations the pre-1492 head start they would likely need to remain in power until the present.
So if I have this right, the Europeans who in OTL nearly wiped out the native American peoples were motivated not just by desire for land and riches, but also by proto-"Manifest Destiny" style religious fanaticism (as in, it's their God-given right to claim this land for Spain, and so on). If someone other than these Christian "crusaders" came to colonize, the New Worlders would probably have fared better. However, I can envision Muslim "crusaders" doing almost the exact same thing, except in the name of Allah instead. Without some technological advancements before 1492, what could stop the native Americans from eventually becoming subservient to foreign invaders? Besides leveling the entire Old World, that is.
Though a pre-1492 Chinese contact with the New World has been ruled out as ASB, perhaps the Chinese would have treated the native Americans better, since adherents of Buddhism aren't historically as prone to violence as those of Christianity and Islam. (Before anyone objects, see: the Crusades.) On the other hand, a more peaceful religion doesn't necessarily mean the Chinese would be particularly benevolent, as their history is chock full of wars.
Good thought, but the trouble with that is how far back the POD has to be (over 10,000 years). The butterflies from this would change a hell of a lot of human history from then on.
~~~~~
Assuming I ever write this TL, I need some alternate place names, seeing as how there would be virtually no European exploration. Here's what I have so far (nothing too creative):
North America = North Atlantis (Middle Easterners are familiar with Greek history, right?)
South America = South Atlantis
Pacific Ocean = Eastern Ocean (with respect to the Chinese)
Australia = Ao Zhou (Chinese)
Antarctica = Chullunku Suyu (Quechua for "ice province")
Falkland Islands = Awacha Wat'akuna (Quechua for "twin islands")
Galapagos Islands = Chincha Wat'akuna (Quechua for "northern islands")
Madagascar = Iranian Afriqa (colony of the Iranian Empire)
I don't know if these need to be renamed, but:
Indian Ocean = Western Ocean
Arctic Ocean = Northern Ocean
Criticism, please.
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I am not very knowleadgeable about this area however here is my tl
First the Islamic conquests are as sucessful conquering all of Spain and Portugal, however they stop advancing at the Pyrenees. They then hold on to these conquests for ages with only small christian states poping up and being destroyed.
Then have the Frankish Empire not be divided between sons of the king. This allows the Franks control of most of western Europe for quite a while. Also since they have not been invaded by the Muslims they do not invade into Spain.
With this is takes out Spain and Portugal which would be more concerened with Islamic matters
The French Empire would be big and be more preoccupied about bashing the nations arounf it to think about colinisation.
I don't know what would happen to Britain but it would probably come under French or Viking rule so they would be more concerned with rebelling or helping the French beat the Slavs/Arab to think about colinisation.
The Viking raids continue as normal on western Europe (as the butterflies do not really effect Scandinavia as they are relavivly cut off from the rest fo Europe till the Vikings) During thier raids they get blown of course and land up in Iceland then Greenland then Canada. If they cant get money from stronger kings in France, they expand by trade. They increase contacts with the Islamic Empire and Frankish Empire. They set up small trading post all along the northern part of America (up to about New York) However this is not very profitable and the other Kings of Europe dont see any point in expanding overseas, when they could fight each other.
The Chinese admiral Zheng He has his excursions to the other parts of the Old World. The Emperor has a small bit of clarity and sends a fleet across the Pacific to see if that is an easier way to contact rich Europe. The Admiral finds north America and starts a low level trading with the natives there. This stops after 200 years due to Chinese islolationism and low profits
This contact from the Vikings/ Scandinavia spreads the Old World diseases quickly and by 1300 they have raveged the Andes aswell as all of North and Central America.
The Chinese and Scandinavian contact has also brought European and Asian technologies to the natives. By 1500 they have Horses, more advanced and varied agriculture (maybe using some of the European and Asian domesticated animals.) and writing (for south American nations)
So when the Europeans/Arabs/Asians arrive they are immune to the Old world diseases and have around about the same technology level and maybe some better technology.
However the Butterflies in America would be massive so there would not be recognisable Aztec, Mayan or Ican empires. However the nations/empires that are around would be harder to destroy and conqueror
I understand if that is total crap but its the way i think this could happen.
First the Islamic conquests are as sucessful conquering all of Spain and Portugal, however they stop advancing at the Pyrenees. They then hold on to these conquests for ages with only small christian states poping up and being destroyed.
Then have the Frankish Empire not be divided between sons of the king. This allows the Franks control of most of western Europe for quite a while. Also since they have not been invaded by the Muslims they do not invade into Spain.
With this is takes out Spain and Portugal which would be more concerened with Islamic matters
The French Empire would be big and be more preoccupied about bashing the nations arounf it to think about colinisation.
I don't know what would happen to Britain but it would probably come under French or Viking rule so they would be more concerned with rebelling or helping the French beat the Slavs/Arab to think about colinisation.
The Viking raids continue as normal on western Europe (as the butterflies do not really effect Scandinavia as they are relavivly cut off from the rest fo Europe till the Vikings) During thier raids they get blown of course and land up in Iceland then Greenland then Canada. If they cant get money from stronger kings in France, they expand by trade. They increase contacts with the Islamic Empire and Frankish Empire. They set up small trading post all along the northern part of America (up to about New York) However this is not very profitable and the other Kings of Europe dont see any point in expanding overseas, when they could fight each other.
The Chinese admiral Zheng He has his excursions to the other parts of the Old World. The Emperor has a small bit of clarity and sends a fleet across the Pacific to see if that is an easier way to contact rich Europe. The Admiral finds north America and starts a low level trading with the natives there. This stops after 200 years due to Chinese islolationism and low profits
This contact from the Vikings/ Scandinavia spreads the Old World diseases quickly and by 1300 they have raveged the Andes aswell as all of North and Central America.
The Chinese and Scandinavian contact has also brought European and Asian technologies to the natives. By 1500 they have Horses, more advanced and varied agriculture (maybe using some of the European and Asian domesticated animals.) and writing (for south American nations)
So when the Europeans/Arabs/Asians arrive they are immune to the Old world diseases and have around about the same technology level and maybe some better technology.
However the Butterflies in America would be massive so there would not be recognisable Aztec, Mayan or Ican empires. However the nations/empires that are around would be harder to destroy and conqueror
I understand if that is total crap but its the way i think this could happen.
So your POD would be some time in the early 700s, when in OTL the Muslim Umayyads who conquered Spain advanced beyond the Pyrenees. Perhaps Al-Samh ibn Malik dies in ~718, just prior to the invasion of Septimania, aborting the plan to invade. I'm not sure if this would prevent future conflict between the neighboring Umayyads and Franks, but it's possible, I suppose. Via butterflies, you could have a Louis the Pious analogue choose one son as his sole heir, producing a less advanced Europe as proposed by tbrookside here. I'm guessing that regardless of who controls it, Britain would need to remain weak, as a strong power on the British Isles will likely lead to a strong navy for defense and to invade the mainland. Constant conflict between the Vikings and Franks in Britain might accomplish this goal.
I'm not sure when you had intended the Vikings to first contact North America, but if the butterflies have little effect on Scandinavia as you say, perhaps this would be by 1000 at the latest (Leif Ericson's voyage in OTL). Assuming butterflies also don't change Chinese history much, a Zheng He analogue could come about and sail all the way across the Pacific to the legendary Fusang in the early 1400s. Granted, Valdemar did dash my hopes for the idea of Chinese contact with the New World in the 1400s here, but given a POD in the 700s, perhaps enough could change in Chinese seafaring techniques for this to occur. China could also eventually retreat into isolationism, as in OTL, delaying the possibility of extensive Chinese colonization.
The Vikings' New World presence allows Old World diseases to run their course through the Americas, but the native peoples are given time to recover without being overrun by belligerous Old World zealots. Contact with the Vikings and later with the Chinese gives the New World civilizations more advanced technology and agriculture, permitting them to at least remotely approach par with the Old World civilizations in terms of progress. However, I believe you are correct that the butterfly effect will alter the New World enough so that the civilizations present in OTL would be quite different from the ones in this TL.
I like how you combine your unique POD with previously suggested ideas. (The Chinese contact seems to be a little superfluous, though, unless you were thinking that early contact with multiple Old World civilizations would accelerate the advancement of the New World even more.) But with the POD so far back, I can't say for sure that the rest of Old World history would so closely align with that of OTL. For instance, if you're a strong believer in chaos theory, there is no Louis the Pious or Zheng He in this TL, since they were born after the POD. The funny thing about this challenge is that the earlier back you place the POD, the better chance you can give the New World civilizations, but the more you randomize world history as well.
Oh, and it's definitely not "total crap." It was clever, thoughtful, and well-reasoned. I thank you for your contribution.
So no ASB's? Alright, let's see.....
Incas.
A storm shipwrecks travellers from the old world(I'm guessing Muslim?) who spread disease throughout the Americas while they live their lives and die. In about 75 years, the pandemics have worked their way through most of the population and the population is starting to stabilize. There is no Inca Civil War since the Inca has enough sense to name an heir before he dies. The Incas continue their expansions north into Columbia and south past the Atacama with their eyes of Patagonia.
The Incas in OTL had already started to experiment with bronze helmets and bronze tipped spears. If they continued with this in a stable empire with no real old-world travellers coming, they could theoretically have entered the bronze age. This new technological advantage would allow them to easily conquer large swaths of South America and I see them at some point developing mroe advanced canoes/ships and sailing off to explore new lands along the coast.
Seriously, give the Inca another 75-100 years of stable existence and they would have a population and technological base strong enough to at least make any would-be conquerors think twice about taking them on.
Incas.
A storm shipwrecks travellers from the old world(I'm guessing Muslim?) who spread disease throughout the Americas while they live their lives and die. In about 75 years, the pandemics have worked their way through most of the population and the population is starting to stabilize. There is no Inca Civil War since the Inca has enough sense to name an heir before he dies. The Incas continue their expansions north into Columbia and south past the Atacama with their eyes of Patagonia.
The Incas in OTL had already started to experiment with bronze helmets and bronze tipped spears. If they continued with this in a stable empire with no real old-world travellers coming, they could theoretically have entered the bronze age. This new technological advantage would allow them to easily conquer large swaths of South America and I see them at some point developing mroe advanced canoes/ships and sailing off to explore new lands along the coast.
Seriously, give the Inca another 75-100 years of stable existence and they would have a population and technological base strong enough to at least make any would-be conquerors think twice about taking them on.
I don't think it matters who's on the shipwreck, so long as they have the appropriate diseases. When would this occur? Perhaps it could be Europeans fleeing the disaster in the mid-1300s. If the collapse of Europe provides the Americas with at least a century of lead time beyond what they had in OTL, then your scenario has the Incas recovered from the pandemics and possessing sufficient technology to defend themselves from Old World invaders by the early 1600s.
How far along do you think the Aztecs might have come by then? I didn't know the Incas were significantly more technologically advanced than the Aztecs. In my ignorance, I had originally assumed the Aztecs were more advanced because their empire was older. But then I found out about the Inca Empire's predecessor, the Kingdom of Cuzco, which was formed in 1197, well before the Aztec Empire formed in 1325.
If the Old Worlders on the shipwreck infect the Americas with diseases like smallpox, measles, and the plague, those diseases would eventually run their course throughout the Americas. I don't know how long this would take, but I guess the fastest way is to have the shipwreck land somewhere in southern North America or northern South America to split the difference and have the diseases spread north and south at a roughly even pace.
The survivors of the pandemics would theoretically possess some natural genetic resistance to one or more of the diseases. But based on prior discussions I've had about the Black Death, I think it would take a long time for this resistance to spread throughout the Americas. And even if the native Americans evolved such resistance, when future contact with the Old World is established, the Americas will be confronted with new strains of the same diseases. Would any resistance they had previously built up be useful against these new strains?
I don't know if the Incas' reaching the Bronze Age in the 1500s CE would necessarily mean that they'd be able to thwart Old World conquerors. The Bronze Age began in the Middle East in 3300 BCE, Europe in 2300 BCE, and China in 2000 BCE. That's thousands of years of lead time. Wouldn't it be better to have the Incas acquire Old World iron-working technology and knowledge? This would give them a big boost that they otherwise wouldn't have reached on their own for a long while.
That sounds about right.
The Aztecs probably would've come along a fair bit assuming they aren't too focused on their neighbours(all of which basically hated the Aztecs) and the whole human sacrifice thing.
The Aztecs by Pre-Columbian America standards were very advanced, but the most advanced out of all were the Inca. The Inca had a massive road systems, the largest empire, bronze-tipped weapons and helmets, domesticated animals, advanced agricultural techniques and used Diplomacy. The Inca were well-known to offer choices to villages: peacefully join our empire where all your elders/higher ups will become modest lords in the Empire, or we march a massive army and kill you all. Kind of a Hobson's choice, but still.
If OTL is any indication, a disease will take anywhere from 75-100 years roughly to run its course through the population.
There would certainly be another pandemic because of the new strains, but it most likely would not kill off large swaths of the populace like what actually happened when white people came to the Americas. A good comparison would be that the first time around would be like the Spanish Influenza. Second coming of Old-Worlders would be more akin to Swine Flu where some people are dying, but not everyone is dying left, right and centre. Since the Aztecs and Inca had massive populations before disease took its toll, I think their numbers the second time around would still give them a slight advantage.
It would be good if they could get iron-working, but that would be pretty ASB. Even the Inca were only just beginning to experiment with Bronze. Perhaps they could manage it, but I find it difficult since the Inca just used whatever metals that were lying around which happened to be gold and copious amounts of silver.
I don't mean that the Incas themselves would independently develop iron-working. I mean that contact with Old Worlders could provide the Incas with the knowledge and techniques needed for iron-working. If the Incas adopt this technology and make good use of it, they could put themselves in a much better position to ward off Old World invaders.
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On a related topic, I was searching through old threads and came across this interesting one which seems to provide a plausible means by which the Chinese could reach the Americas in the early 1400s. My POD (at least at the moment) is ~1350, when a combination of the Black Death and the temporary disruption of the North Atlantic Current (causing a "Black Winter") wrecks European civilization. This would butterfly away Zheng He, the leader of such a Chinese expedition, who was born after the POD in either 1371 or 1375. Without him, I'm not sure the Chinese would have anyone capable of leading overseas expeditions like Zheng He did in OTL.
If a Zheng He analogue did come along, then the Chinese might have the initiative to head east, perhaps to find a more direct sea route to depopulated Europe and its mostly unclaimed land and natural resources. I can envision the Chinese either taking the northern route along the coast of Russia and Alaska or heading in east to Hawaii and then to North America. (Which is more realistic?) Upon reaching the Americas, the Chinese would provide a potential source of Old World disease and technology. This would serve as a continual low-level contact with the Old World recommended in prior discussions (as opposed to the one-time shipwreck contact).
If an earlier contact with Norwegians colonizing Newfoundland in ~1350 were made, the Old World diseases could mostly have run their course through the Americas (though the technology would spread more slowly) by the time the Chinese would arrive. This puts the Aztecs and Incas in a better position to avoid being overrun by the Chinese should they become interested in conquest. Since the Pacific is much wider than the Atlantic, I'd think the longer travel distance would make Chinese colonization of the Americas slower when compared to Muslims crossing the Atlantic. So the Chinese contact would be (at least initially) limited mostly to trading rather than extensive colonization.
Ultimately, I see Turks and Arabs reaching the Americas on the Atlantic side perhaps in the 1700s some time, especially if encouraged by successful Chinese trade with the Americas. (Maybe this is either too or early too late, but I really have no idea.) Thus, by that point, the Aztecs and Incas would have had maybe three centuries or so to recover from the pandemics and adopt Old World technology with only limited Old World contact. This puts them in a much better position to retain their sovereignty should any Old Worlders start hungrily eyeing their land and resources.
By present times, I envision the Chinese dominating in western North America; the Turks in eastern North America; a coalition of native Americans in central North America; Aztecs in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean; Incas in western South America; and Arabs in eastern South America.
Criticism, please.
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Since I'm still looking for some more friendly input on questions I've left open on this thread, I'm self-bumping again, but this time I actually have something else to add.
First, a question: Does anyone know what the pre-Columbian Aztecs called the Gulf of Mexico? I don't know if they reached the Caribbean Sea, but did they have a name for that too? Nahuatl (or any language other than English) is not my strong point.
Second, some info: If I can manage to keep the Inka Empire alive to the present and still strong, I expect there will be additional provinces beyond the four which made up the empire in OTL. As most of you know, the empire then was called Tawantinsuyu, or "four provinces." The expansion of the Inkas across western and southern South America adds an extra six provinces. Thus, the official name of the empire is Chunkantinsuyu, or "ten provinces." Here's the breakdown:
The original 4 provinces (the borders of which intersect at the Inka capital of Qusqu):
Chullunkasuyu: "ice province" -- Antarctica
My Quechua is cobbled together from online dictionaries and the Quechua Wikipedia, so feel free to criticize my usage of the language.
First, a question: Does anyone know what the pre-Columbian Aztecs called the Gulf of Mexico? I don't know if they reached the Caribbean Sea, but did they have a name for that too? Nahuatl (or any language other than English) is not my strong point.
Second, some info: If I can manage to keep the Inka Empire alive to the present and still strong, I expect there will be additional provinces beyond the four which made up the empire in OTL. As most of you know, the empire then was called Tawantinsuyu, or "four provinces." The expansion of the Inkas across western and southern South America adds an extra six provinces. Thus, the official name of the empire is Chunkantinsuyu, or "ten provinces." Here's the breakdown:
The original 4 provinces (the borders of which intersect at the Inka capital of Qusqu):
- Chinchasuyu: "northwest province" -- north and central Peru, Ecuador, Galapagos Islands [Yawatisuyu]
- Antisuyu: "northeast province" -- west Peru, west central Brazil, north Bolivia (expanded from the original territory)
- Kuntisuyu: "southwest province" -- south Peru
- Qullasuyu: "southeast province" -- southwest Bolivia, northern Chile, northwest Argentina
- Ruphasuyu: "hot province" -- Colombia, Venezuela, Panama
- Sach'asuyu: "forest (Amazon) province" -- northwest Brazil
- Chawpisuyu: "central province" -- southeast Bolivia, Paraguay, northeast Argentina
- Pampasuyu: "Pampas province" -- central Argentina, Uruguay, southeast Brazil
- Chirisuyu: "cold province" (covers Patagonia) -- south Chile, south Argentina, Falkland Islands [Amacha Wat'akuna: "twin islands"]
- Qasasuyu: "frost province" -- north Antarctic Peninsula
Chullunkasuyu: "ice province" -- Antarctica
My Quechua is cobbled together from online dictionaries and the Quechua Wikipedia, so feel free to criticize my usage of the language.