AH Challenge: President Ralph Nader.

How is it possible, with out the use of A.S.Bs, for Ralph nader to have won either the 1996, 2000, 2004 or 2008 Elections as a Green (1996, 2000) / Independent (2004, 2008) Party Candidate.

If elected, how would he have handled the Country, depending on the time he is elected.
 
I'm fairly sure it's impossible, if you're ruling out ASB solutions, placing those party requirements on.

The only possible way to do it would be to have a POD far enough back that the Green Party not only gets founded well before it did (and then again, which Green Party? There've been three or four various versions, none of which are older than 1984.) but also that it somehow establishes itself as a legitimate major party.

Best I can come up with is a POD where a Green Party is founded in the US in the late 40s, in response to the Cold War nuclear fallout fears. For the next 20 years, they establish themselves in liberal climes, winning some House seats here and there, and slowly drawing attention from the liberal wing of both major parties. In the 1960s, the Civil Rights movement splits the Democrats, but the Northern Democrats now have a relatively legitimate alternative, and they migrate en masse to the Green Party. The Northeast becomes a Green/Rep. 2 party system, and the South becomes the home of the Democratic Party. Over time (probably ETA 1994 or so, by the time this finishes playing out), the Republicans' Southern Strategy proceeds similarly to OTL, as their policy agreements and desire to take advantage of majority power in the Congress leads to more and more coalition tickets, and eventually the two parties merge. We'll call them the Republicans for the sake of argument.

In the 70s and 80s, incidents like Three Mile Island and Chernobyl raise the public profile and legitimacy of the party even further, and they begin winning Senate seats in addition to the House seats and Governor's mansions they'd been pulling in. The Greens finally win the big one in 1984. Ted Kennedy, running as a Green after four straight Republican terms, takes advantage of liberal and moderate frustration with right wing policy, and squeaks into the White House. Nader, instead of being the vanguard of the party as he was OTL, is instead a relatively successful Senator from Connecticut, having as he does a party apparatus he is comfortable with.

From his position in the Senate, Nader draws significant public attention and prestige, and following the 1992 electoral disaster, with President Thad Cochran retaining the White House 510-28 over Green candidate Lawton Chiles (Florida and DC) he makes a concerted push to be recognized as de facto head of the party. Nader is named Senate Minority Leader in 1993, and in 1996 runs for President with Herb Kohl against Governor Pat Buchanan of Virginia and Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana. Nader wins the election on the strength of voter fatigue with the Republicans, the economic slowdown, and the North Cape Spill, which played right into the Greens' wheelhouse.

Just playing here, this would be a rough Presidential line for this TL:

33: Harry S Truman 45-53 (POD happens here, too early to impact Presidential politics)
34: Dwight D. Eisenhower 53-61 (Greens start to grow in strength, but are mostly coalition with the Dems nationally)
35: John F. Kennedy 61-63 (Wins, as in OTL, but Harry Byrd's Dixiecrats pick up 40 EVs instead of 15, by sweeping Alabama, winning GA outright, and picking off extra faithless electors in NC, SC, and LA)
36: Lyndon B. Johnson 63-69 (Presides over the Civil Rights riots that lead to the first mass defections to the Green Party. Wins in 65 on the strength of Kennedy sentiment, and removes himself from the 68 Dem primaries in order to get critical Civil Rights votes)
37: Richard M. Nixon 69-77 (First significant Pres. butterflies in 2nd term. No Watergate, because the Dem/Green split left George Wallace the Dem candidate in 72. Greens ran McGovern/McCarthy, who were never much threat to Nixon, being regional as they were.)
38: Ronald W. Reagan 77-85 (The Greens begin picking up some Liberal Republicans in the 70s, and when Agnew resigns as OTL, Nixon chose conservative William Brock of Tennessee as his VP, instead of the moderate Ford. Reagan faces token opposition in the primary, and crushes Lloyd Bentsen (D) and Jerry Brown (G) in the general.)
39: Edward M. Kennedy 85-89 (The name Kennedy still has some magic in it. The Democrats offer their strongest candidate in some time, Robert Byrd, who attracts enough attention in the Republican heartland to split the voter base that Bob Dole was reliant on. This strategic error, combined with the partisan pull going on, results in the Ds and Rs offering fusion tickets from here on out.)
40: William T. "Thad" Cochran 89-97 (Cochran, an R as in OTL, picks Richard Shelby (D) as his running mate. The Greens run Kennedy in 88, and Lawton Chiles in 92, but get walloped, both times.)
41: Ralph S. Nader 97-05 (Over Buchanan/Lugar, as above.)

Yeah, this is pretty far ASB, but it's my first attempt at thinking a timeline through for more than a couple years past the POD. Any advice as to where I've gone way wrong with my details?
 
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As long as Dem voters keep acting like a battered wife, going back to a Dem party that uses them and lies to them but knows they will always be loyal, Nader doesn't have virtually any chance.

The only scenario I could see is if Nader married into money, giving him a Perot-like fortune to spend on his own campaign. His best chance is the 2000 election, a wooden and at the time unappealing Gore, and Bush having even more verbal gaffes. Perhaps an earlier investigation into Bush's Nat'l Guard service and the strings pulled for him, but this time with better evidence.

Nader as pres would fight all the good fights and sadly lose. He'd fight for campaign finance and lobbying reforms and would be fought every step of the way by both parties. After 9-11 he'd oppose going to war and it'd be one more reason his re election would be impossible.

His one way to save himself might be to call for a constitutional convention early on knowing that his reforms would likely fail in congress.
 
On reflection, my arse talks more sense after a hot curry, but let's go.

Late 70s/early 80s. Ralph Nader becoming Ross Perot style rich, through factors including a highly popular national consumer TV show (something like Watchdog over here in the UK) and business interests in environmental and safety technologies. The programme, which started off on PBS, gains a huge following after several damning exposes of Detroit's safety record and household appliance failures. NBC obtain the show, however giving Nader full editorial control under strict instructions to remain independent.
1991. With the irritation of William O'Neill's economic handling growing large in Connecticut, Ralph Nader runs for Governor. He wins as an independent with the strong backing of Greens, many independents and irritated Democrats.
1992. Bill Clinton wins the presidential election, but loses the popular vote. Ross Perot gains 28% of the popular vote, a few thousand votes off second place but still doesn't win any EC votes. This triggers widespread outrage, a "scrap the electoral college" campaign and a fair few PACs. A group of members of both houses, lead by Ron Paul, support abolition of the electoral college. Clinton looks clearly embarrassed to have won the election.
1993. The Real Democracy Amendment is tabled, proposing a two-round electoral system for presidential elections, separated by a week break. Following public pressure, and support of talk radio, primaries of all parties with more than 100,000 registered voters have to use Bucklin voting. This succeeds in the house and Senate by close margins, and goes to the states.
1994. No surprises in the mid-terms, Clinton loses a significant number of seats - those who support the RDA often manage larger margins than previously. RDA ratified in Texas, peeved that two of its favourite sons were shafted in one election. Virtually all large and medium-size states ratify the RDA, getting it to 30 states. Former General Colin Powell, irritated by small-state Republicans opts to join the Democrats.
1995. A few more states ratify it, getting the number to 36 - two short of the magic number. It's too late for 1996, and many initial RDA supporters are fuming that it won't be ready on time, but most still campaigning as they know they've got a very good chance of getting it in place for 2000 as it requires a six month warning period. Nader wins a second term as Governor of Connecticut, with state Democrats not being able to find a popular candidate of their own, the Democrat nominee withdrew shortly after winning the primary, endorsing Nader. He politely declines draft movements in several states, saying that he won't consider a presidential run unless RDA is ratified, but once it is won't rule it out. He also feels that he should serve his term as Governor.
1996. Perot, irritated by the lack of the RDA support, doesn't run. Clinton, with his charisma and popularity abroad improving the view of the US in the world better (following his own election making the US look like a banana republic), wins a second term with both an EC and popular vote win. Shortly after, Clinton says that he is pleased to win what he described is his "first fair term", endorses the RDA following criticism of him being a hypocrite for running for a second term following such situations, whilst this has dogged him from 1992, he reminds people that there can't be a special election for the president.
1997. Nader continues bubbling along as a popular governor. RDA picks up the final two states needed and becomes law. The next POTUS will be elected over two rounds.
1998. Gov. Nader wins a third term in Connecticut.
1999. The invisible primary for 2000 is well underway, and George W Bush throws his hat in to the ring. US military involvement in Kosovo goes really, really, wrong. A series of US air-strikes flatten a hospital, an old people's home and a primary school within a week. The involvement, supporter fervently by Republicans but less warmly by Democrats, becomes a national scandal, with the footage of the devastation beamed to millions of American and European homes. Material implying Gore recieving performance related funds from arms companies for a second term forces him to pull out of the race for the nomination. Joe Biden looks to be the favourite.
2000. Joe Biden and George W Bush win the primaries for the Democrats and Republicans respectively. Biden picks Lieberman as a VP, while Bush picks Mitt Romney concerned about Cheney's attitudes drawing attention to his military service records. However, Bush's party boy lifestyle and military service record comes up again. Nader, who picks Powell as his running mate, reminds the public that he is the only person with a war hero (and for that matter a war hero that opposed intervention in Kosovo) on the ticket in a joint press conference with Powell, Powell obviously flattered mentions that Nader actually has served as well. Biden's draft issues and plagiarism, coupled with some ill-opportune remarks, send many Democrats over to Nader. It is agreed that the debates will take place after the first round.
2000 Round 1. Following all the information about his private life and military record, coupled with the Mormon Factor, Bush/Romney do badly in the close first round of the elections. A few hundred thousand votes separate Bush/Romney and Nader/Powell, however Bush loses. The second ballot the next week will be Biden versus Nader.
2000 Debates. Nader's noninterventionalism helps him. Biden manages to almost waffle his way through this one. Conservatives seem to be going for Nader due to Powell's military record, a dislike for Biden and Nader's economic miracle in Connecticut. The Catholic Factor also plays a role ...
20001, days before Round 2. Joe Biden makes a huge gaffe at a rally in Louisiana - ethnic minorities and other low income groups are reminded of Nader's support for UHC and Powell's service record.
2000 Round 2 : Nader/Powell beat Biden/Lieberman 52%-48%.
 
We'd need to go back to Nader's heyday, the aftermath of the publication of Unsafe at Any Speed, to give him a shot at this. Also, we need a few small points of diversion rather than just one, and it takes a while:

Riding a wave of popularity in liberal circles, Ralph Nader decides to come back home to Connecticut in 1969 in order to run for the Senate in 1970. Entering an already crowded primary, Nader manages to make a splash, convincing Joe Duffey, a popular liberal Democrat who was considering running, to decide against it. Tom Dodd, the Democratic incumbent, dies from a heart attack in June 1970. (In OTL, Nader continued living in DC, Duffey got the Democratic nomination, and Dodd dropped out of the Democratic primary race after a non-fatal heart attack, then ran as an independent.) Nader was appointed to the now-vacant Senate seat by Governor John Dempsey, and he went on to win the Democratic nomination. Thanks in large part to nationwide support of Nader from various prominent liberal Democrats, the advantage of his new status as the incumbent, and failure by the Republican candidate, Lowell Weicker, to win over the more moderate former supporters of the deceased Dodd, Nader won a close election that November.

By 1976, Nader was 65th in seniority in the Senate. That year, he ran against former Lt. Gov. Peter Cashman, who Nader defeated handily. In 1984, Nader was supposedly being considered for the Vice Presidential nomination by Walter Mondale, but Mondale eventually decided against him. In 1988, Nader was selected by Joe Biden as his running mate in the election against Republican nominee Bob Dole. Biden and Nader narrowly won the election. However, throughout his Vice Presidency, Nader drew the ire of the increasingly conservative Democratic Party. In 1992, Biden and Nader won re-election very narrowly. Vice President Nader teamed up with First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in an effort to enact Health Care Reform. The plan was a miserable failure, but endeared Nader and Ms. Clinton to the left. The 1994 "Republican revolution" marked an apparent end to the left wing, and in 1996, Bob Dole won the Republican nomination yet again, roundly defeating Ms. Clinton's husband, Gov. Bill Clinton, in that year's Presidential election.

After his Vice Presidency, Nader publicly renounced the Democratic Party. In 1998, he joined the Green Party, and encouraged the nation's liberals and progressives to do the same. In 1999, Nader announced he would run for the Green Party's nomination for President, which he would go on to win. He selected Dianne Feinstein as his running mate. In 2000, President Dole decided against running for a second term, citing his age. The Republican Party nominated former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, who chose Governor George W. Bush as his running mate (admit it, it's far more plausible than what happened OTL). The Democratic Party nominated Former Gov. Evan Bayh, who chose Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate. The moderate ticket floundered between the ideologically charged Cheney and Nader, and Bayh, while young and energetic, had a difficult time establishing a coherent base. In the debates, Nader moderately outperformed the other two, while Feinstein completely destroyed Bush and Lieberman. Marginalized by the strength of the Green ticket, Bayh realized that he would simply take votes from Nader, and began to campaign only in states Cheney was likely to win.

On election night, Nader and Feinstein won a clear plurality of the popular vote, 47%. Cheney and Bush won 32%, and Bayh and Lieberman won 21%. Nader won a slim majority of the electoral college, earning the Green Party the White House for the first time. President Nader served a single term, from 2001 to 2005. He was noted for his introduction of universal health care and his expansion of welfare coverage. His cuts in the defense budget allowed him to do this while actually shrinking the national debt. However, it also opened him up to an extreme degree of criticism after a terror attack on Washington, DC and Los Angeles on March 11, 2004, destroyed the Pentagon and the Library Tower and claimed thousands of lives. Emboldened by the calls for a larger defense department, John McCain won the Republican nomination, going on to win the Presidency against Feinstein and Democratic Nominee Al Gore in 2004.
 
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My timeline:
1996: Nader runs for president as a "None of the Above" option in the New Hampshire Primary, as in OTL. However, this results in more media attention than in OTL. (Even some Conservative media outlets backed Nader's "None of the Above" option, even though they disagreed with Nader on most everything...) Also as in OTL, Clinton and Dole (or their campaigns) break FEC laws and are fined. Unlike OTL, this does get significant coverage.
1997: US Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs releases report critical of Clinton Campaign Finance Law violations in 1996 in regards to funds coming from individuals of Chinese descent. This receives wider coverage than in OTL, though Republicans in Congress do not pursue impeachment.
1998: After Clinton launches Operation Desert Fox, an aide to Congressman Bob Barr searches the internet and finds the late Hussein Kamil's remarks to CNN on Iraq's 1995 destruction of its WMD. Barr uses this to attempt to add additional counts of impeachment against Clinton over abuse of power, lying to Congress, and defrauding the United States. This decision divided both Republicans and Democrats into pro-Impeachment and anti-Impeachment camps, but ultimately failed to pass the Judiciary committee. This does increase opposition among the American people.
1999: Texas Governor George W. Bush is summoned to testify in a lawsuit filed by former Texas Funeral Service Commission employee Eliza May. He repeats the claim he made in a sworn affidavit that he had no conversations regarding the removal of May from her position. This claim is contradicted by statements made by at least two other individuals. (The lawsuit, sworn affidavit and contradictions did happen in OTL. However, in OTL Bush was not required to testify...)
February 2000: Avionics problems delay STS-99's launch by another day, allowing CNN to give a bit more coverage to the debate over the closing of polling places in the South Carolina Republican primary. (STS-99's launch interrupted the discussion in OTL). This helps put the issue on the media's radar. After the closing of 1/5 the SC polling places, not to mention the extensive negative attacks, McCain refuses to congratulate George Bush and resumes camapigning with a vengeance. (The closings and attacks did happen in OTL.)
June 2000: Nader nominated by the Association of State Green Parties in Denver, Colorado. All the networks cover the nomination, unlike OTL.
General Election Campaign: Bush and Gore attack each other. Unlike OTL, Bush makes Gore's campaign finance law violations more of an issue, while Gore attacks Bush over his statement in the Eliza May case.
October 2000: Nader's Madison Square Garden rally gains national coverage. PBS sponsors a presidential debate with offers for Gore, Bush, Nader and Buchanan to participate, and offers to provide service for free to all other networks. Gore and Bush decline, while the networks agree. Nader and Buchanan trade a few barbs with each other, but they mostly attack Bush and Gore. As a result, both Nader and, to a lesser extent Buchanan gain in the polls, while Gore and Bush lose ground. Both candidates emphasize an end to corruption in Federal government, and an opposition to military force used overseas.
November 2000: The revelation of Bush's DUI charge causes significant damage to Bush, while charges that Democrats attempted to keep Nader off the ballot damage Gore.
Election Day: Nader narrowly wins both popular vote and electoral vote, becoming first President of predominantly Middle Eastern descent and first third-party candidate since Lincoln. VP Winonah LaDuke becomes first female VP and second Native American VP (after Charles Curtis).

A bit in office:
Nader faced huge congressional opposition to most of his policies. A few successes in his first year included:
-Reducing Federal Energy usage by 20%, with a significant cost savings as a result. (Ironcially Nader cited both Gore and Bush (in regards to the Texas LoanStar program) in some speeches on this program.) It encouraged similar investments and actions in both the public and private sector.
-Dismantling a number of corporate subsidy programs, increasing the surplus by $25 billion. (Nader got support from Deficit Cutting Democrats and Republicans, along with Left-Wing Democrats and Limited Government Republicans.)
-Leading the dissolution of NATO. (The Senate disapproved at first, but EU leaders picked up the proposal and encouraged it, following which the Senate approved.)
-US troops withdrawn from Saudi Arabia.
-Passing Campaign Finance and Election Law reform. (Think McCain-Feingold, but bigger, covering restrictions on negative campaigning, and federal oversight of all Federal, State and Local elections.)

Two unintended consequences of Nader's actions would have a huge impact. Many of the more ambitious Nader policies weren't supported by Congress, while some of Congress's attempts to override Nader's vetos on some policies didn't have the votes to pass. As a result, the budget surplus continued, and even grew at some times. Nader and Congress grudgingly agreed to use what remained of the surplus for debt repayment. This would pay back future dividends in the years to come.
Second, as a result of the withdrawl of US troops from Saudi Arabia, a number of Saudi citizens residing in the USA received some unusual phone calls. September 11th was a very quiet day.
 
Some thoughts occurred to me affecting my POD and others. Nader is a notorious workaholic. Perhaps so much so that at some point the presidency may exhaust his health. An early death or retirement due to health problems would bring in his VP, Winona Laduke, as both the first woman and first American Indian.

And she'd also be perceived to be the first nonwhite pres, except that Nader is Arab. But Nader being Arab is not widely known, in part because of public misconceptions about what makes one an Arab. He has no accent, is not seen as an immigrant, etc. But if 9-11 still happens under this TL, I imagine we'd see lots of the same "He's a secret Muslim/not born here" conspiracies swirl around him same as Obama.

If Laduke succeeded him as pres, say late in his term around 2003, I sadly can't see her getting elected on her own. She'd rather be right and do right than be president. I could see her joining the ranks of Gore to work on global warming advocacy.
http://nativeharvest.com/winona_laduke
 
If he was a serious contender, perhaps he would have had a different VP? In the TL I posted, his running mate was Colin Powell. Then again, it's got several big PODs, one unlikely one being the abolition of the electoral college ...
 
As long as Dem voters keep acting like a battered wife, going back to a Dem party that uses them and lies to them but knows they will always be loyal, Nader doesn't have virtually any chance.
Or possibly Nader is too far to the left for most Democrats. In which case, you would probably also have to remove the Republican Party, and not have any other party take its place as the pparty of the right, to get Nader elected.

Which requires ASBs, or maybe, (as long as we're doing a progressivewank, why not?) really really really radical Reconstruction after the Civil War, which puts in a system where citizens must pass an ideological test to prove they're not racist before they're allowed to vote, a test so defined that basically nobody to the right of Nader is allowed to vote. Sort of an even stricter antimatter universe Jim Crow system.
 
If he was a serious contender, perhaps he would have had a different VP? In the TL I posted, his running mate was Colin Powell. Then again, it's got several big PODs, one unlikely one being the abolition of the electoral college ...

I have a hard time seeing Powell on a ticket with Nader. Powell has always been very much a follower, not independent minded.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
I have a hard time seeing Powell on a ticket with Nader. Powell has always been very much a follower, not independent minded.


That's not true. He's broken with the Republican party on a number of issues. It's worth noting that he endorsed Obama in 2008 which is hardly the action of a partisan Republican.
 
Bear in mind Powell's a factor when the US military start blowing up schools in Kosovo in my TL where US involvement there goes really wrong. The military experience of Nader and Powell (Biden got draft deferments, we all know about Dubya, Romney and Lieberman didn't) might be an advantage, especially when they're calling for an end to an intervention in a war where people see lots of civilians being killed in Europe.
 
That's not true. He's broken with the Republican party on a number of issues. It's worth noting that he endorsed Obama in 2008 which is hardly the action of a partisan Republican.

Powell got his career start doing his best to cover up the My Lai massacre.

Then of course his cheerleading the push for the 2nd Iraq War in spite of his own deep reservations about the evidence. It took deep disillusionment for him to endorse Obama.

Outside of being pro choice, he's roughly in line ideologically with Bush Sr, a man Nader deeply despises and campaigned against.

There's nothing to suggest any independent enough streak to join a third party. Outside of both being pro choice, they'd both disagree on virtually everything.

I agree with the earlier points that, if Nader has a viable chance to get the presidency, chances are he won't choose Laduke. But Powell seems unlikely.

My guesses for his likely choices:
Kucinich
Jerry Brown
Bernie Sanders
Peter Camejo
John Edwards
Matt Gonzalez
Larry Echohawk
 
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