AH challenge: Permanent Iberian Union?

Krall

Banned
The Iberian Union has always interested me, and I like to wonder what would have happened had it been permanent, or, at least, far longer lasting.

With no POD before 1550, and not after 1700, make the Iberian Union able to survive until at least 1800 and speculate as to how this would change history elsewhere.

Bonus points if you get them to unify.

Mega super bonus points for having them unify and then turning them into a republic instead of a kingdom
 
The easiest I can think now is to have the Portuguese independence of 1640 failing. No revolts in Catalonia before it might do the trick.
 
Try to get the nobility from Portugal to mingle with Spaniards as much as possible- the Spanish nobility will have a vested interest in the welfare and safekeeping of Portugal, while the Portuguese nobility will be more firmly connected to the rest of the Empire.

Also, a major source for the 1640 rebellion was a restructuring of the Spanish tax system due to changing demographics elsewhere in the Kingdom and the several declared bankruptcies thanks to the endless wars Philip II got the Kingdom in. If you can make Spain avoid spending every coin it gets its hands on, and/or make the tax restructuring less shocking to the Portuguese nobility, it's easy to avoid the 1640 rebellion.


With a unified Iberia, you end up with the Spanish colonial system imposed in Brazil, which was a lot less centralized. If some kind of Bolivarian revolution or other independence movement occurs in South America, a unified Brazil like in OTL is much less likely.
 

Krall

Banned
Try to get the nobility from Portugal to mingle with Spaniards as much as possible- the Spanish nobility will have a vested interest in the welfare and safekeeping of Portugal, while the Portuguese nobility will be more firmly connected to the rest of the Empire.

Wasn't that pretty much what was happening until Phillpe II died and Phillipe III got the throne?

The problem seems to lie with Phillipe III, if we can kill him off, keep Phillipe II the king for longer or have someone else become king [perhaps a war of succession?] then the Portuguese rebellion will probably not happen.

Now, speculate as to how this would affect the rest of history.
 
Wasn't that pretty much what was happening until Phillpe II died and Phillipe III got the throne?

The problem seems to lie with Phillipe III, if we can kill him off, keep Phillipe II the king for longer or have someone else become king [perhaps a war of succession?] then the Portuguese rebellion will probably not happen.

Now, speculate as to how this would affect the rest of history.
The Eighty Years' War will still likely be like OTL if the big thing is the 1640 rebellion avoided, so there'll still be an independent Netherlands and independent Netherlander colonial empire being made. With the larger Spanish presence in the Orient thanks to Portuguese trading posts in India and elsewhere, there'd likely be a lot more competition between the two in the Far East.

Unless they can get sufficient revenue out of their Portuguese acquisitions, however, the Spanish Empire is still going to crumble from far too many bankruptcies. Spain's Italian holdings- Genoa especially- would likely revolt, leaving a weaker Spanish presence in the Mediterranean. Ottoman resurgence? A second series of Italian Wars involving the French in the late 1600s? I dunno.
 
Wasn't that pretty much what was happening until Phillpe II died and Phillipe III got the throne?

The problem seems to lie with Phillipe III, if we can kill him off, keep Phillipe II the king for longer or have someone else become king [perhaps a war of succession?] then the Portuguese rebellion will probably not happen.

And WI Prince Carlos is married to Elizabeth of Valois instead of his father, as was planned before? He would still be deformed and with bad mental condition, probably would still die young, but he just need to produce a heir, and then you have a different king after Philip II. And, as Carlos was the son of Maria Manuela, daughter of John III of Portugal, his son would be the legal king of Portugal. Then you just need to wait for Philip II to die and the king of Portugal also became king of Spain.
 
Having the Spanish armada work for a start might well have this impact- the English pestering Spain and draining a lot away would allow them to stay far stronger.
 
Unless they can get sufficient revenue out of their Portuguese acquisitions, however, the Spanish Empire is still going to crumble from far too many bankruptcies.

Not if Spain pulls out of the excessive conflicts and reestructures the economy, which is basically what happened in the reign of Charles II (though the Bourbons got later the full credit for it, denying another quality more to the poor deformed bastard).

Spain's Italian holdings- Genoa especially- would likely revolt, leaving a weaker Spanish presence in the Mediterranean. Ottoman resurgence? A second series of Italian Wars involving the French in the late 1600s? I dunno.

Genoa was a Spanish lapdog but an independent one. It was fine with her role. Naples did revolt in the 1640s but that revolt didn't last and in the following decades the Spanish didn't have any problem there. In fact, during the following century the Napolitans often rejected Austrian and French influence in favour of getting the Spanish again. If this didn't happen in full form in OTL was only because of British and French opposition.
 
The easiest I can think now is to have the Portuguese independence of 1640 failing. No revolts in Catalonia before it might do the trick.

Indeed. The Portuguese revolt could have been suppressed if the Catalonians had not revolted at the same time and opened the door to the French (and only to be betrayed by them later and to lose two provinces to them). By the time peace with France was signed in 1659 the war had been wasted too many men, resources and years to put Portugal back in the fold again. Still, peace with Portugal wasn't signed till 1668...
 
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