AH Challenge: Obama didn't misspeak

Of course, if BC, SK and MB were states, Gore would have won....


Assuming my math is right, here's how the 12 Canadian provinces and territories (minus Quebec) would be likely to vote if they were states, how many House seats they would have, and how many electoral votes:

AB: Safe GOP, 5 House seats, 7 EVs
BC: Leans Dem, 6 House seats, 8 EVs
MB: Toss up, 2 House seats 4 EVs
NB: Safe Dem, 1 House seat, 3 EVs
NL: Safe Dem. 1 House seat, 3 EVs
NS: Safe Dem, 1 House seat, 3 EVs
NT: Safe Dem, 1 House seat, 3 EVs
NU: Safe Dem, 1 House seat, 3 EVs
ON: Safe Dem, 13 House seats, 15 EVs
PE: Safe Dem, 1 House seat. 3 EVs
SK: Toss-Up, 2 House seats, 4 EVs
YT: Safe Dem, 1 House seat, 3 EVs
 
Last edited:
What about buying St.Pierre and Miquelon from France, Vancouver Island and Graham Island from Canada, and make some of Alaskas islands States, for example Kodiak Island?
 
In the first scenario, Canada breaks up either because of the failure of Meech Lake or due to one of the Quebec Referenda passing. Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia. 57 States! Yukon is appended to Alaska. Ontario, the Territories, and the northern portion of Quebec which voted overwhelmingly to stay in Canada are all that's left of Canada.

Prince Edward Island would presumably become a state along with NB and NS. So this scenario would add 8 states (2 more needed).

However, this scenario would also be a such a good deal for the Dems, the GOP would likely stop it if they could:

Of the resulting 16 new Senate seats, only 2 would be from a red state (AB), 2 from a purple state (SK), 4 from blue-leaning states (BC, MB), and 8 from blue states (NB, NL, NS, PE).

In the electoral college, the GOP would gain only 4 safe electoral votes, while the Dems gained at least 12, plus another likely 10.
 


Lincoln
Franklin
Jefferson

Baja (purchase)
Toronto (purchase after vote to join)
New York City
Washington DC
New Brunswick (purchase after vote to join)
Nova Scotia (purchase after vote to join)
Prince Edward Island (purchase after vote to join)

TEN

Remember the POD here has to be post-1960, or no Obama. That would make some of the above pretty unlikely.
 
Here's three possible new states consistent with the OP, and how they would break politically:

Lincoln

Split Eastern and Western Washington, create Lincoln in the east. Rump WA would have 5.2 million people, and Lincoln would have 1.3 million.

This would give the GOP 2 two new Senate seats from a safe red state, and would also benefit the GOP in the electoral college, as it would split WA's reliably Dem 11 electoral college votes, giving 4 of them to the GOP.

Columbia

Make DC a state. This would give Dems 2 new safe Senate seats, and 1 new voting House seat, but would not give them any new EC votes.

Buffalo or Gotham

Split NYC metropolitan area from upstate NY. The former has a population of 7 million, the latter 12 million.

One of the two new states would still be called "NY state". Upper NY could be called the state of Buffalo, after its largest city. Or NYC could be called the state of Gotham.

This would add 2 new Senate seats from a purple state, and benefit the GOP by splitting NY's 31 reliably Dem electoral votes, making 12 of them competitive (Kerry beat Bush in upstate NY by less than 1,500 votes).

Others...?
 
Last edited:

Jefferson

Split 12 counties from northern California and 7 counties from southern Oregon.

Would give the GOP 2 new senate seats and 3 electoral votes from a safe red state.
 

Franklin

The state of Franklin existed for a few years in the 1780s, consisting of 8 counties in what is now eastern Tennessee, before it ceased to exist in 1790.

It doesn't appear there has been any recent movement to re-create it.

But if it were re-created, it would be a safe red state, with 3 electoral votes.
 
Another way to get around the problem of Canadian provinces being a Senate and Electoral College bonanza for the Democrats, is to gerrymander them before their admission to the Union, splitting them up and joining them together, so instead of 5 liberal provinces, 1 conservative, and 2 toss-ups, you have 3 liberal provinces and 3 conservative.

Possible new states created this way:

Atlantica: Northern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Solid Dem. 1 House seat, 3 EVs.

Kelowna: Interior British Columbia, named for the largest city. Solid GOP. 1 House seat, 3 EVs.

The rump New Brunswick would lean GOP, the rump BC would be solid Dem.
 
Last edited:
So you have 8 new former Canadian states

Alberta: Solid GOP (7 EVs)
Kelowna: Solid GOP (3)
New Brunswick: Leans GOP (3)

Atlantica: Solid Dem (4 EVs)
BC: Solid Dem (7)
Newfoundland: Solid Dem (3)

Manitoba: Tossup (4)
Saskatchewan: Tossup (4)

Now to make it the even 60, you just need to carve out 1 new blue state and 1 new red state from the original 50 (most logical would be DC and Jefferson), and you have the 10 new states, all roughly balanced politically.
 
Last edited:
To flesh out this ATL (I'm close to a completed timeline), I researched the question of when the new states would first get their House and Electoral College representation:

After Alaska and Hawaii were added in 1959, each immediately received 1 House seat and 3 EVs, which lasted until 1963, when following the 1960 census and reapportionment. Hawaii was given a second House seat.

So I think that if the 10 new states are all added in 1999, each will have 1 House seat and 3 EVs in the 2000 election. The first federal election where they have their full House and EC representation will be 2004.
 
Remember that he wasn't allowed to go to some states so maybe the US would have an internal passport, there is no freedom to travel...

What about an Indian tribe having its own state?
 
Remember that he wasn't allowed to go to some states so maybe the US would have an internal passport, there is no freedom to travel...

Don't think that would fly in the US. More likely those doing the preventing were more his handlers, stopping him from traipsing all over the map, trying to keep him reigned in of those states the could be important.
 
This one may have been done already, but I couldn't find anything in a search, so...
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go. Alaska and Hawaii, I was not allowed to go to even though I really wanted to visit, but my staff would not justify it."
Note the POD probably has to be post-1960, or butterfly effects will mean that Obama is never conceived.

Okay, so a total of 60 states? (57 + one left + Alaska + Hawaii)

Canada is a lovely place, but we don't need it to reach 60.

DC granted statehood by the 23rd Amendment in 1961, with only the Mall, the Capitol and the White House remaining the Federal District. The South is incensed the heavily black city is made a state. (Total 51 states.)

Texas splits into 5 states in 1964, to try heading off the 1964 Civil Rights Act in the Senate. It fails to do so, but they split anyway. (Total 55 states.)

In order to balance the extra Democratic states in Texas, on June 4, 1965, the California State Assembly votes to split the state along the Tehachapi Mountains. South California is reliably Republican, of course. (Total 56 states.)

In 1975, amid a budget meltdown, upstate New York State secedes from New York City and Long Island. Upstate New York is now called Hudson. (Total 57 states.)

In 1990, the US Supreme Court in Diro v. Reina, suggested a new state as a means to clarify the legal status of Native American tribal governments. The following year, the state of Native America, a geographically discontinuous conglomeration of 310 recognized Indian reservations is created. (Total 58 states.)

Puerto Rico gains statehood in 1998, by plebiscite, approved by Congress later that same year. (Total 59 states.)

All overseas territories (USVI, Guam, etc.) are organized as a state in 1999. Also eligible are all Americans living overseas or serving outside of their home states for military or diplomatic service. Membership is voluntary, but tax benefits are considerable. The total population is nearly 3 million. The name of the state is "Americans Abroad". (Total 60 states.)
 
Last edited:
Okay, so a total of 60 states? (57 + one left + Alaska + Hawaii)

Canada is a lovely place, but we don't need it to reach 60.

DC granted statehood by the 23rd Amendment in 1961, with only the Mall, the Capitol and the White House remaining the Federal District. The South is incensed the heavily black city is made a state. (Total 51 states.)

As long as some part of it remained the Federal District, would you actually need a Constitutional Amendment to make the rest of DC a state?
 
Okay, so a total of 60 states? (57 + one left + Alaska + Hawaii)

Canada is a lovely place, but we don't need it to reach 60.

DC granted statehood by the 23rd Amendment in 1961, with only the Mall, the Capitol and the White House remaining the Federal District. The South is incensed the heavily black city is made a state. (Total 51 states.)

Texas splits into 5 states in 1964, to try heading off the 1964 Civil Rights Act in the Senate. It fails to do so, but they split anyway. (Total 55 states.)

In order to balance the extra Democratic states in Texas, on June 4, 1965, the California State Assembly votes to split the state along the Tehachapi Mountains. South California is reliably Republican, of course. (Total 56 states.)

In 1975, amid a budget meltdown, upstate New York State secedes from New York City and Long Island. Upstate New York is now called Hudson. (Total 57 states.)

In 1990, the US Supreme Court in Diro v. Reina, suggested a new state as a means to clarify the legal status of Native American tribal governments. The following year, the state of Native America, a geographically discontinuous conglomeration of 310 recognized Indian reservations is created. (Total 58 states.)

Puerto Rico gains statehood in 1998, by plebiscite, approved by Congress later that same year. (Total 59 states.)

All overseas territories (USVI, Guam, etc.) are organized as a state in 1999. Also eligible are all Americans living overseas or serving outside of their home states for military or diplomatic service. Membership is voluntary, but tax benefits are considerable. The total population is nearly 3 million. The name of the state is "Americans Abroad". (Total 60 states.)

Pretty good. If you drop two of the above (say, have Texas only split into 2 or 3 parts) you could even throw Canada in there too:

Following the sucession of Quebec, have the rest of Canada minus Ontario and the Territories, admitted to the Union as two or three states.

The 4 western provinces become one physically gigantic state of West Canada, or possibly two states if you split off BC.
 
Somewhere in the South after the civil rights arguments go very, very wrong?

Your Civil Rights example could maybe come to pass if a new state is carved out of majority-black portions of Mississippi and Alabama.

How about:

Selma. New state formed from the eight majority-black Alabama counties between the Mississippi border and Montgomery. Has a current population of about 150,000.
 
The two most likely ways of the US gaining portions of Canada, post 1900, both involve the Maritimes.

1. The Dominion of Newfoundland, 1949. The plebiscite could have gone differently. OTL, in the first round of voting 58% voted for something other than joining Canada. Had the process gone differently... well, this one was a very real possibility for a state. Had Truman campaigned for it, he probably could have gotten it. In recent polls, 17.6% of Atlantic Canada supports annexation, and that's during the Bush administration. Imagine the support during the 50's or early 60's when the US was more popular.

2. In the 1970's, had the October Crisis led to a truly independent Quebec, the Maritimes would be an exclave of Canada and the West may decide they are tired of paying them equalisation payments. Now, it is more likely that in a TL where Canada falls apart, the Maritimes simply go independent, or maybe try to join the UK in some way. But joining the US would at least be on the table.

A newly independent Quebec is a slight possibility for joining the US, but unlikely as any independence for La Belle Province would be preceded by a period of intense francophone nationalism. Besides, the US would be unlikely to accept them as a full state. The language thing is the big reason, but more subtly Quebec has a more, umm... European culture, politics, society and, for lack of a better term, way of being than the US. Bottom line, the US would see Quebecois as simply too foreign and not accept them. Maybe as a territory or Commonwealth vis a vis Puerto Rico, but not a state.
 
Texas splits into 5 states in 1964, to try heading off the 1964 Civil Rights Act in the Senate. It fails to do so, but they split anyway. (Total 55 states.)

In 1964, the Senate GOP would kill an attempt to split Texas by filibuster.

Since 1960 there have been two periods when Dems had filibuster-proof majorities and the Presidency: 1965-1968, and 1977-78. During those periods, they could theoretically have packed the Senate by admitting as many new solid Democratic states as they wanted, provided that state legislatures were willing to create them.

They might have been able to make all of DC except the White House, Capitol, and Mall a state without a constitutional amendment (precedent from 1846 says Congress can reduce the District's borders with a simple majority).

And if the legislatures of Alabama and Mississippi could be convinced, maybe create a couple of black majority states out of the clusters of black majority counties in southwest Alabama and along the Mississippi Delta, ostensibly in order to make the Senate more racially representative.

In 1975, amid a budget meltdown, upstate New York State secedes from New York City and Long Island. Upstate New York is now called Hudson. (Total 57 states.)
Hudson is a good name for upstate NY, I like it better than Buffalo.

However, it's unlikely that the Senate Democrats would approve upstate statehood, since it would mean subtracting about 40% of New York's 27 electoral votes from the reliably Democratic column. Unless this were balanced with a Dem electoral vote pickup somewhere else.
 
Another possible new state: South Florida.

In OTL 2008, the city of North Lauderdale passed a resolution saying that Florida should be split in two. The new state of South Florida would include Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties. Total population 5.4 million, solid Democratic, with 8 or 9 of Florida's 25 electoral votes.

In 1975, amid a budget meltdown, upstate New York State secedes from New York City and Long Island. Upstate New York is now called Hudson. (Total 57 states.)

Was just reading how Leon Panetta, the CIA Director nominee, wrote in support of NYC statehood back in the 1970s.

Also, in 1969, Norman Mailer ran for mayor of NYC on a platform which included making the city the 51st state. He came in 4th in the primary with 5% of the vote (the winner had 33%). If plausibility isn't too much of a concern, maybe Mailer winning can be the POD.

All overseas territories (USVI, Guam, etc.) are organized as a state in 1999. Also eligible are all Americans living overseas or serving outside of their home states for military or diplomatic service. Membership is voluntary, but tax benefits are considerable. The total population is nearly 3 million. The name of the state is "Americans Abroad". (Total 60 states.)
I really like this idea (is it original?). Might be better tho to call it "Americans Overseas", since "abroad" implies away from home, which wouldn't apply to those living in the territories.

You could also make a separate state out of the USVI (that wouldn't violate the challenge rules, since like Puerto Rico they are closer to the mainland than Hawaii).

And since Americans in mainland Latin America aren't technically "overseas", maybe you could have a separate state for Americans abroad in the Americas (can't think of a pithy name for that one tho).
 
Last edited:
Top