AH Challenge: Nuclear proliferation gone MAD!

^ The Olmert comment was a slip-up on his part. Yes, while Israel has not willingly said "we have nukes", everybody knows they do - Vanunu made that rather clear to the Sunday Times in 1986.

A slip up that confirmed something long suspected. If ahmedinejad would say "oh yes, we have a facility that produces HEU and have enough material for 5 nukes" would that be treated as a slip and dismissed as such or a confirmation of Iranian nukes and used to "do something about it"?
 
Indonesia did announce at one time it was seeking the bomb. I'm not sure if it was due to prestige or fear of the US...or China...

The Ukraine and Kazakhstan could have kept their nukes, at least.

Anyone want to cue up "Who's Next" by Tom Lehrer?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Uhm, yes they have. They:
A. jailed Vanunu for treason and espionage because he disclosed details about their nuclear program (if Israel had no nukes than telling world about them is not a treason but a lie)
B. Then PM Olmert said so. Don't have exact quote handy but he said something like "Iran can't be trusted with nukes because they would not handle them responsibly, unlike other nuclear armed countries like US, France or Israel"

Oh, for Christ's sakes...

...did I say I didn't think they had them? Holy lord God, The Yom Kippur War by Abraham Rabinowitz talks in great detail about how they didn't even get near the delivery systems because Golda Meir was too busy making "more important" decisions.
All they're doing is playing around with legal loopholes. If they say they've got them, it makes things more difficult for us when we're dealing with all these other people.

A slip up that confirmed something long suspected.

Well, it's not like it was settling people's bets or anything. I'm pretty sure everyone's sure by now they've got them, you know?
 
Oh, for Christ's sakes...

...did I say I didn't think they had them? Holy lord God, The Yom Kippur War by Abraham Rabinowitz talks in great detail about how they didn't even get near the delivery systems because Golda Meir was too busy making "more important" decisions.
All they're doing is playing around with legal loopholes. If they say they've got them, it makes things more difficult for us when we're dealing with all these other people.

No, you said they never admited having them. I pointed out how they did.

Well, it's not like it was settling people's bets or anything. I'm pretty sure everyone's sure by now they've got them, you know?

True, but look at Pakistan. In 1990 everybody thought they have nukes but there was nothing really concrete. When they "came out" things changed for them.
 
Easiest way for this to happen is probably a nuclear exchange and the Soviet Union, United States and Europe to get turned into a pile of warlord states with nukes and those Warlords to have some staying power in the aftermath.

There is also For All Time which has things like France break apart into a pile of Warlords and the Soviet Union dies in a Nuclear Civil War, it also features a West African Federation and Venezula (as well as a Australian/New Zealand and Canadian) nuclear program.

An agreement to put nuclear weapons in every NATO country and a WARPAC response in kind would suit the bill as well.
 
With regards to Taiwan getting Nuclear weapons. Even if PRC had nukes as well, the milisecond that PRC discovers Taiwan attempting to aquire nukes, PRC would invade, it would be one step too far and from that point, PRC would either have to take the island by force or acknowledge that ROC was independant which would not happen.

So even in secret, even with outside help, it would be the end of ROC/Taiwan as an independant entity.
 
With regards to Taiwan getting Nuclear weapons. Even if PRC had nukes as well, the milisecond that PRC discovers Taiwan attempting to aquire nukes, PRC would invade, it would be one step too far and from that point, PRC would either have to take the island by force or acknowledge that ROC was independant which would not happen.

So even in secret, even with outside help, it would be the end of ROC/Taiwan as an independant entity.

Which means Taiwanese would be smart to keep development secret then go "Ta-dah".
 
Wouldn't matter if Mao or Deng are in charge at the time. PRC would invade in a heartbeat.
And to be honest, the chances of China not finding out something that huge would be microscopic. Japanese Communists leak the information? Chinese spies in Taiwan? CND release it thinking they're doing the right thing?
If they can keep it secret into the mid/late 90's it might be different though.
 
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