AH Challenge: No Russia

Right ho. Is there any way we can prevent Vladimir / Muscovy from overrunning Novgorod, Smolensk, Kiev, Tver etc. in order to form the OTL Russia that we all know and love?

What do you think would take its place? A confederation of 'Russian' states? An uber-Novgorod? Poland-Lithuania?
 
Justin Pickard said:
Right ho. Is there any way we can prevent Vladimir / Muscovy from overrunning Novgorod, Smolensk, Kiev, Tver etc. in order to form the OTL Russia that we all know and love?

What do you think would take its place? A confederation of 'Russian' states? An uber-Novgorod? Poland-Lithuania?
How about a Scandinavian Empire replacing Russia?
 

Diamond

Banned
I am presently working on a TL where Kiev remains stable and strong and acts as a counterweight to Novgorod. Muscovy remains a minor player and its lands are eventually absorbed by the two forming rivals in north and south Russia.

My thought is to have Novgorod build dynastic links with Sweden, forming an empire centered around the Baltic, while Kiev concentrates on the south, perhaps ending up in control of Constantinople and the Balkans.
 
Diamond said:
I am presently working on a TL where Kiev remains stable and strong and acts as a counterweight to Novgorod. Muscovy remains a minor player and its lands are eventually absorbed by the two forming rivals in north and south Russia.

My thought is to have Novgorod build dynastic links with Sweden, forming an empire centered around the Baltic, while Kiev concentrates on the south, perhaps ending up in control of Constantinople and the Balkans.

I still do not fully understand why Kiev Rus was so fragile in the first place. In realtion to its neighbours it was the most advanced militarily, socially, culturally and had a literacy rate way above anywhere in Europe outside of Byzantium. Given another century of uninterrupted advances it may have been able to unite the other principalities into a stable state.
 
Diamond said:
I am presently working on a TL where Kiev remains stable and strong and acts as a counterweight to Novgorod. Muscovy remains a minor player and its lands are eventually absorbed by the two forming rivals in north and south Russia.

My thought is to have Novgorod build dynastic links with Sweden, forming an empire centered around the Baltic, while Kiev concentrates on the south, perhaps ending up in control of Constantinople and the Balkans.
I like that idea. Who in the end, gets Siberia?
 
Despite the extremely personally distateful possibility, winking Russia as we know it out is painfully easy. Anything from Kiev to the Tatars to Khazars to Scythes have a decent shot at disappearing her before she even existed, though some sort of Orthodox Slavic state would likely have risen in the area regardless.

And of course you mentioned Smolensk - and as late as the Smolensk war it could have remained under the Polish yoke.
 
Wendell said:
I like that idea. Who in the end, gets Siberia?

You know, Siberia was so much interior wasteland that nobody apart from the locals (Sibirs!) had much incentive of keeping the place, so maybe Kiev would have chased their own cossacks eastwards, and taken Siberia regardless, and push on to Far East. Then again, if Moskva were to survive between Sweden and Kiev, it might see the East as the prime frontier to do so in - so perhaps Russia will be really 'Asiatic' in this timeline!
 
I just started writing a Kulikovo - a russian disaster timeline not too long ago. That's the most likely cause of a Moscow downfall and several Russian kingdoms in the end.


MarkA said:
I still do not fully understand why Kiev Rus was so fragile in the first place. In realtion to its neighbours it was the most advanced militarily, socially, culturally and had a literacy rate way above anywhere in Europe outside of Byzantium. Given another century of uninterrupted advances it may have been able to unite the other principalities into a stable state.
To answer that from wikipedia:
wikipedia said:
Kievan Rus′ was not able to maintain its position as a powerful and prosperous state, in part because of the amalgamation of disparate lands under the control of a ruling clan. As the members of that clan became more numerous, they identified themselves with regional interests rather than with the larger patrimony. Thus, the princes fought among themselves, frequently forming alliances with outside groups such as the Polovtsians, Poles, and Hungarians. During the years from 1054 to 1224 no less than 64 principalities had a more or less ephemeral existence, 293 princes put forward succession claims, and their disputes led to 83 civil wars.

The Crusades brought a shift in European trade routes that accelerated the decline of Kievan Rus′. In 1204 the forces of the Fourth Crusade sacked Constantinople, making the Dnieper trade route marginal. As it declined, Kievan Rus′ splintered into many principalities and several large regional centers: Novgorod, Vladimir-Suzdal, Halych, Polotsk, Smolensk, Chernigov (modern Chernihiv), and Pereyaslav. The inhabitants of those regional centers then evolved into three nationalities: Ukrainians in the southeast and southwest, Belarusians in the northwest, and Russians in the north and northeast.
 
MarkA said:
I still do not fully understand why Kiev Rus was so fragile in the first place. In realtion to its neighbours it was the most advanced militarily, socially, culturally and had a literacy rate way above anywhere in Europe outside of Byzantium. Given another century of uninterrupted advances it may have been able to unite the other principalities into a stable state.
What Souyz posted, and more: their abominable "ladder" succession system advanced their strife to the levels truly horrible.
IMHO any POD that disappears away the Mongol invasion will see at least two "Russian" states (south-western and north-eastern, "Kiev" and "Vladimir" or "Muscovy"). The timeline I'm working on (very slowly) gets six (OK, five and a half): Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod, Lithuania, "Siberia" and heavily Russian-ized state in Far East (Manchuria?)
 
The problem is size. The Kievan Rus, apart from the reasons mentioned, collapsed because they reached a point where further expansion became illogical and unteneble. With no realistic frontiers, the stats of the Southern steppe were bound to be dominated by the more constrained northern states.

The principle holds true almost universally. The more defensible a state, the more successful it is. Rus was not very defensible. Muscovy was/is.
 
Justin Pickard said:
Right ho. Is there any way we can prevent Vladimir / Muscovy from overrunning Novgorod, Smolensk, Kiev, Tver etc. in order to form the OTL Russia that we all know and love?
Fine-tuning the political situation in the Golden Horde's Vassal States to put another into leadership is easy (many more familiar with the period speak of Tver as being a more likely candidate than Muscovy), but I suspect you are looking for something different
Justin Pickard said:
What do you think would take its place? A confederation of 'Russian' states? An uber-Novgorod? Poland-Lithuania?
Depends a lot on the presice POD. If the principalities in question are kept apart or subsumed into the Golden Horde outright then an expansive Novgorod is a very likely result....

HTG
 
NFR said:
Despite the extremely personally distateful possibility, winking Russia as we know it out is painfully easy. Anything from Kiev to the Tatars to Khazars to Scythes have a decent shot at disappearing her before she even existed, though some sort of Orthodox Slavic state would likely have risen in the area regardless.
Slavic yes.

Orthodox? Hehehe....

HTG
 
htgriffin said:
If the principalities in question are kept apart or subsumed into the Golden Horde outright then an expansive Novgorod is a very likely result....
HTG
No, it is not. How would you feed it? Many AH builders dismiss the simple fact that Novgorod was VERY dependent on imported grain.
 
serebryakov said:
No, it is not. How would you feed it? Many AH builders dismiss the simple fact that Novgorod was VERY dependent on imported grain.
Trade of course. First with the Khanate and later via the Baltic.

Of course it is not going to get insanely big unless/until the Golden Horde goes belly up and Lithuania fails to move in. I see any *Novgorod as very strongly linked to North-Central Europe

HTG
 
Well, how do we define what counts as Russia anyway? For me, I'd say if the population is of Slavic stock, speaks a language derived from what they spoke in the Kievan Rus, is mostly orthodox (ok, that's not necessary, nobody says they can't convert or have their own reformation, but its a bonus) and owns most of the Rus' territory, then it's Russia, even if they don't call themselves Russians.
 
serebryakov said:
No, it is not. How would you feed it? Many AH builders dismiss the simple fact that Novgorod was VERY dependent on imported grain.
Would an expansion to secure that grain then not be very likely?
The way I see it, this grain problem is a very good reason to expand in the first place.
 
What about those pesky Ottomans. What if they took a right turn in Bulgaria?

If they had concentrated in Russia for a time, who knows?
 
Well, they had the Ukraine for a few years. But at that time, Russia was clearly there and couldn't have been destroyed that easily. And if you consider that the Ottomans started as a small emirate emerged from the fallen Rum-Selchuk empire... I can't see them do the work alone...

Maybe Russia is never invaded by the Mongols, the states continue to split up and develop so different that at the end those "Russian" states not swallowed by their neighbors don't have much in common with each other, so there's no big Russia?
 
Smaug said:
What about those pesky Ottomans. What if they took a right turn in Bulgaria?

If they had concentrated in Russia for a time, who knows?
Poland-Lithuania or the Teutonic Knights would probably have a better shot. (Russia is pretty far from the Ottoman Power base…)
 
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