AH Challenge: Nazis still in power in Germany following WWII defeat

Anaxagoras

Banned
With a POD no earlier than January 1, 1943, how can Germany survive as an unoccupied Nazi-ruled country at the conclusion of World War II?
 
There are two major obstacles to this: one is unconditional surrender, the other is the Atomic Bomb. The Americans will use the Atomic Bomb once they have it. Unconditional surrender is an unnegotiable demand as long as Hitler is in power. Therefore, I think the best POD would be for the July plot to succeed, and for the Wehrmarcht and some party bureaucrats to take power once the dust settles. Such a Germany might not remain "Nazi" for very long though: right-wing, ultra-conservative militarist is more likely.
 
The biggest obstacle to Nazis maintaining power in a post-WW2 defeat world is not the Americans or the Russians or the British... it's the German people themselves. I doubt they'd want to hang on to people, or a political movement that's lead them to so much suffering and devastation, and this is only going to be compounded further when the truth about what the political leadership has been doing to 'undesirables' over the past 10+ years is revealed to the German people..
 
Militarily, Germany probably has the means to achieve a stalemate, if they use their resources wisely.

One can imagine a situation that the Stalingrad disaster leads to a nervous breakdown of Hitler, a coup by the army or even that the army violently blames Hitler for the disaster as he had been increasingly taking a direct role in directing the armies (even serving as Army Group commander by remote control for a time).

Let’s assume the army takes over the direction of the war with Hitler either gone or vastly reduced in power (certainly over policy). Matching means to goals, the Ostheer assumes an active defence posture in the east. This might well have allowed Germany’s weaker army to hold off the Russian steamroller (the same strategy NATO would have used).

Meanwhile the Westheer consolidates and prepares to receive the invasion.

None of these measures would allow Germany to win the war but it could make it equally impossible or simply too costly to win for the allies.

The only thing remaining is the atomic bomb. Either it is butterflied away or the Germans are capable of mutual assured destruction with a significantly upgraded V2 program fitted with chemical warheads. A simple “you nuke us and we gas the population of England” exchange would be enough to neutralize this avenue. In fact, a sufficiently believable V2 program might even have neutralized the mutual destruction of cities, as happened in 1939 when both sides were loath to bomb cities for fear of retaliation.
 
Militarily, Germany probably has the means to achieve a stalemate, if they use their resources wisely.

One can imagine a situation that the Stalingrad disaster leads to a nervous breakdown of Hitler, a coup by the army or even that the army violently blames Hitler for the disaster as he had been increasingly taking a direct role in directing the armies (even serving as Army Group commander by remote control for a time).

Let’s assume the army takes over the direction of the war with Hitler either gone or vastly reduced in power (certainly over policy). Matching means to goals, the Ostheer assumes an active defence posture in the east. This might well have allowed Germany’s weaker army to hold off the Russian steamroller (the same strategy NATO would have used).

Meanwhile the Westheer consolidates and prepares to receive the invasion.

None of these measures would allow Germany to win the war but it could make it equally impossible or simply too costly to win for the allies.

The only thing remaining is the atomic bomb. Either it is butterflied away or the Germans are capable of mutual assured destruction with a significantly upgraded V2 program fitted with chemical warheads. A simple “you nuke us and we gas the population of England” exchange would be enough to neutralize this avenue. In fact, a sufficiently believable V2 program might even have neutralized the mutual destruction of cities, as happened in 1939 when both sides were loath to bomb cities for fear of retaliation.

ranoncles

I played around with a TL, off line this was for my own interest, where I took over Germany on 1/1/43 and basically saw what I could do to avoid a German defeat but by that time, even with a supernatural knowledge by Hitler, its bloody difficult as they are already in such a mess. However would be possible to do a hell of a lot.

On the nuclear issue the easiest way might be to win a stalemate by say mid-late 44. If things are going badly, landings in France defeated, Italy stalemated and the Red Army bleeding heavily on the Dnieper then you might be able to persuade the Russians to make a separate peace, rather than spend another year dying virtually on its own. In that case, if the bomber campaign is not looking decisive and continuing to suffer heavy losses then the western powers may decide that the war is un-winnable. At this point the Manhattan Project is only just beginning to start producing plutonium in more than microscopic amounts. Even the scientist can't really promise a bomb at this point and those few politicians [i.e. decision makers] in the know are going to be less certain. With Britain virtually out of available manpower the US would face the nightmare of mobilising vastly larger forces to both invade Japan and a German controlled Europe, with the expectation of huge losses. [Might also factor in that with things going considerably worse Roosevelt might well have his health collapse in 44 rather than early 45, throwing the US political situation into considerable disorder].

Steve

PS, realised after posting this that doubtful whether it actually counts as a defeat for Germany?
 
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What if Germany, without Hitler in power, withdrew to its pre-War borders in the West at sometime before D-Day, withdrew its aid from Italy and shortened its lines in the Soviet Union, perhaps establishing lines that include the Baltic states, Belarus and Ukraine. Norway would be evacuated also. New fortified lines are drawn up and the first peace feelers are sent towards the Allies with the hope that an armistice can be agreed to with Germany dominating central Europe.
 
What if Germany, without Hitler in power, withdrew to its pre-War borders in the West at sometime before D-Day, withdrew its aid from Italy and shortened its lines in the Soviet Union, perhaps establishing lines that include the Baltic states, Belarus and Ukraine. Norway would be evacuated also. New fortified lines are drawn up and the first peace feelers are sent towards the Allies with the hope that an armistice can be agreed to with Germany dominating central Europe.

David

I doubt if they could afford to make all those concessions without some certainty they would get something in return. Especially since they would be effectively deserting allies in Italy and Vichy France.

Furthermore the lines you suggest are not really that much if any shorter in the east. Also, unless they change their occupation policies and you would need to remove more than Hitler to alter that significantly, they are still going to have a hell of a lot of problems.

I suspect their best bet, after the more flexible military policy means they serious maul a Soviet offensive, [provided its not left too late so they can do that] is to try and open negotiations with Stalin.

Steve
 
The biggest obstacle to Nazis maintaining power in a post-WW2 defeat world is not the Americans or the Russians or the British... it's the German people themselves. I doubt they'd want to hang on to people, or a political movement that's lead them to so much suffering and devastation, and this is only going to be compounded further when the truth about what the political leadership has been doing to 'undesirables' over the past 10+ years is revealed to the German people..

Why should that truth get out, if it wasn't out before? I can't see the Nazis staying in power in any sit where there's actual occupation of German soil.

And else, the fact remains that the Nazis were amazingly popular right up till the end of the war, mostly because of the hellishly expensive welfare state they built up.
 
The only thing remaining is the atomic bomb. Either it is butterflied away or the Germans are capable of mutual assured destruction with a significantly upgraded V2 program fitted with chemical warheads. A simple “you nuke us and we gas the population of England” exchange would be enough to neutralize this avenue. In fact, a sufficiently believable V2 program might even have neutralized the mutual destruction of cities, as happened in 1939 when both sides were loath to bomb cities for fear of retaliation.

No it wouldn't. People had trained for gas bombardment all through the war, and knew how to defend against it. And gas, even nerve gas, was not a superweapon even back then, with issues of dissipation, limited spread and bad targeting. It would cause casualties, certainly, but not MAD, especially with the limited German delivery capabilities. More likely, the result would be gas with the Allied bombs over Berlin, Dresden etc.
 
No it wouldn't. People had trained for gas bombardment all through the war, and knew how to defend against it. And gas, even nerve gas, was not a superweapon even back then, with issues of dissipation, limited spread and bad targeting. It would cause casualties, certainly, but not MAD, especially with the limited German delivery capabilities. More likely, the result would be gas with the Allied bombs over Berlin, Dresden etc.

While it is true that all nations had made anti-CW preparations for their civilians, it would be anybody's guess how effective these measures would have been.

The armies of 1918 had the best equipment available at the time and they certainly weren't impervious to its effects.

Yet, even if large scale casualties could be avoided, the disruption and dislocation of civilian life and economic production would have been immense. Just imagine having to wear a gas mask and a protective poncho at all times in cities filled with toxic clouds.

The allies might have filled their conventional bombs with CW too but that's not the point. In OTL, all nations except Japan refrained from using CW (and Japan only dared using it against China because it didn't have CW of its own) because they feared retaliation in kind.

Apparently, dying by conventional means could be accepted by the public (as shown by the failure of strategic bombardments) but CW or NW is different and everybody instinctively recognized the difference.
 
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