AH Challenge: Nazis Lose, Soviets Lose

I agree with Canaris, those scenarios have still to deal with the UK subject. To say that Hallifax would surrender UK and allow occupation is clearly ASB. Britain somehow invaded in 1940 is almost ASB,too.
So the only plausible explanation for a non-western front is peace with the british. And no UK in the war means no US entry in the war, that's for sure.
So that leaves us with the Moscow option. The germans do better and defeat the USSR in the first blow (or the second, with Blue). That means they still have two years to prepare against allied invasion and, more important, to divert resoruces to their only real menace, the allied air force.
Then we get to 1945 with a Reich that has been reinforcing their air defences with almost nothing else to do (maybe clean up North Africa and garrison the east).
I guess it won't be that easy to nuke that Reich. The germans would have factories far away from allied range, and can use all their oil and men to their fighters. They had a lead also in land-air missiles.
And Hitler always can find a flat in Paris or Copenhaguen, if he is too afraid of the bomb.

This, however, is wank the other way. The B-36 was, by the standards of the time, effectively a "wank-weapon", with its range and ceiling. The Germans might be able to scramble something that could barely intercept it (Is TBO set in '46 or later? For some reason I come to think of 1948.), but not entire fleets of it.

Also, you're making defeating the Soviets waaay too easy.
 
Karlos,

I agree with Canaris, those scenarios have still to deal with the UK subject. To say that Hallifax would surrender UK and allow occupation is clearly ASB. Britain somehow invaded in 1940 is almost ASB,too.

Agreed. The scenario we are discussing is simply a thought experiment in which Germany is given as many advantages as possible to see if it can hold off the US. It can't.

So that leaves us with the Moscow option. The germans do better and defeat the USSR in the first blow (or the second, with Blue). That means they still have two years to prepare against allied invasion and, more important, to divert resoruces to their only real menace, the allied air force.

Two points, here. Only a maniac would attempt an invasion if Germany was not fighting in the Soviet Union. Second, this scenario postulates that Germany does indeed deal with the menace of the American air force - the Luftwaffe actually deals a crippling defeat to the B-29.

Then we get to 1945 with a Reich that has been reinforcing their air defences with almost nothing else to do (maybe clean up North Africa and garrison the east).
I guess it won't be that easy to nuke that Reich. The germans would have factories far away from allied range, and can use all their oil and men to their fighters. They had a lead also in land-air missiles.

Right, but they don't have anything that can actually climb high enough to threaten a B-36 - either missile or fighter. Look at what the actually had on the drawing boards IOTL. Projecting a mere two years into the future doesn't give them a realistic chance of fielding anything in significant numbers.

And Hitler always can find a flat in Paris or Copenhaguen, if he is too afraid of the bomb.

That's assuming he knows about it. Why would he? The Germans don't even think it's possible.
 
Oh, AdmiralCanaris,

I agree that TBO gives the US a very neat victory, with nothing significant going wrong. Possible, but unlikely.

The end result is the same, regardless, IMHO.
 
Oh, AdmiralCanaris,

I agree that TBO gives the US a very neat victory, with nothing significant going wrong. Possible, but unlikely.

The end result is the same, regardless, IMHO.

Then we basically seem to be in agreement. If one accepts the premises as what they are - fiat to pose the TBO scenario, basically - the end result would have been much the same, though the actual execution would be more uneven.
 
This actually brings up an interesting question:

What POD is needed to allow Germany to triumph militarily in a war in which the US becomes involved against them, assuming the Nazis still rise to power? Are there any possibilities at all?
 
A working atomics programme could go a long way towards it. You'd likely need a POD somewhere in the late '30s.

Britain should be occupied by/allied to Germany to prevent invasions and give acces to Africa and India. POD in the '30s at the latest if it's supposed to be reasonable, preferably earlier.

Germany must mobilise for the confrontation with the Soviets immediately. Not before the invasion, as that would alert the enemy, but start spinning full gears ASAP after Barbarossa's first days. Psychological problems, but it should be doable.

Streamlining of production.

Streamlining of production.

Streamlining of production.

Super air force. Germany must be able to protect itself from US air attacks. This borders on ASB.

And, finally, make the US enter later, a year or two, so it takes longer for them to run up.

Basically, Germany must have the optimum possible scenario. Even then it's not a sure thing, but at least they stand a chance.
 
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