Erm...the Manhattan project gets mothballed. Hitler pours tons into the expansion of the Kriegsmarine. He then actually keeps his promise not to invade Russia. The Depression gets worse in the US. Then, by 1949-ish, Hitler nukes US military bases with V2 descendants and captures the East Coast, and...
Well, as you can see, unless we have an earlier POD this is borderline ASB, if not totally.