AH Challenge: Modernized but not imperial "Siamese" Nippon

Thailand/Siam managed to walk a road between the colonized nations that characterized most of Asia and Japan that ended up a colonial power then got a beat down.

But what if Meiji Japan hadn't gone imperialist, and had gone more along the lines of Siam/Thailand?

Is that at all plausable?

What might be the result?
 
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