AH Challenge: Meiji Ottomans

Sang

Banned
Well, maybe the Ottomans could industrialize in Egypt, if they re-annexed it.
And as said before, in Bulgaria.
We could end up seeing the industry booming in large cities like Istanbul.

The coastal cities of Istanbul, Beruit and Alexandria would be ripe for industrialization, if you ask me.
They Ottomans got oil. The Ottomans had coal, steel and iron. Apart from the required population density, they got everything that would be needed for industrialization.
 

Sang

Banned
Yes, people always assume an industrial revolution has to be based on coal - why not oil?

We are forgetting several factors.
Industrialization usually (if not always) corresponds with Urbanization.
The life of a village-dweller and hamlet-dweller revolves around farming (agriculture), fishing, animal husbandry or mining.
The life of a town-dweller and city-dweller revolves around trade and industry-working.

Increase urban population, and combine it with oil, you might trigger an Industrial Revolution.
 
The Ottomans didn't actually do as badly as you think against the Russians. It was hardly a one sided affair, as the Ottomans did achieve some victories over the Russians, and the front moved back and forth.

Nah, actually it really was one of the most one-sided theaters of the war. The only case where the Ottomans lost to the British they lost for reasons having to do with problems of geography and terrain more than British resistance in itself, while in the battles before Third Gaza every time they met the British it was an Ottoman asskicking of the British (where ironically it was the small Balkans states that would kick both Ottoman and Habsburg ass). But against Russia every single battle the Ottomans fought was a Russian victory. It's a weird parallel.
 
Yes, people always assume an industrial revolution has to be based on coal - why not oil?

For starters, using coal to provide steam, and later electrical energy requires fewer technologies overall. During the industrial revolution, said technologies are fairly common place in Europe. Oil industrialization would require developing oil geology, drilling equipment, refining capacity, pipelines to transport said fuel in sufficient volume, and the generators to convert the oil into power. This will take considerable time to develop, and said time would almost certainly prevent the Ottoman Empire from pulling a Meiji.

The second problem is oil tends to be worth more being sold as product in itself, than as a fuel stock for heavy industry. Using oil to operate smelting furnaces would get expensive quickly.

Considering that the Ottoman's were already engaged in proto-industrialization in Bulgaria until the Balkan Wars mucked everything up. Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Kosevo are relatively close to the Ottoman's population centers, and rich in coal, timber, iron, lead, copper and other metals. I'd imagine that Ottoman's given the right circumstances could industrialize at the same rate as Eastern Europe.
 

Sang

Banned
Well, I believe the main point of pulling a Meiji - from the AH-writer's perspective - is not exactly to modernize the empire, but to preserve it, like the way Japan remained a Monarchy even to this day.
Of course, for the Ottomans, the main point of pulling out a Meiji would be to make the empire stronger, and more modern.

As for coal:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/01/us-europe-coal-imports-idUSTRE6803ZC20100901
http://www.mbendi.com/indy/ming/coal/as/tr/p0005.htm
http://www.merchantcircle.com/business/Lebanon.Coal.Company.2.207-339-9689
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=eg&product=coal&graph=production
http://www.iea.org/stats/coaldata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=EG
http://www.mbendi.com/indy/ming/eu/bl/p0005.htm

Anatolia (Turkey) has coal deposits.
Bulgaria has coal deposits.
Lebanon has coal deposits.
Egypt has coal deposits.

So, "lack of coal" wouldn't be a problem, because the Ottomans wouldn't lack coal to begin with.
Sure, they have more oil than coal, but it will take a while to learn how to utilize oil. Until then, coal will do just fine.
 
So, "lack of coal" wouldn't be a problem, because the Ottomans wouldn't lack coal to begin with.
Sure, they have more oil than coal, but it will take a while to learn how to utilize oil. Until then, coal will do just fine.

Yup. The nice thing about Balkan coal though, is that its relatively close to the population centers likely to supply the empire with industrial labor. Coal delivered via train would fairly easily power the factories of Sofia and Instanbul, while barges from Varga, Burgas (or even Salonika) could ship coal Izimar and the other port cities along the Mediterranean coast.
 

Sang

Banned
Yup. The nice thing about Balkan coal though, is that its relatively close to the population centers likely to supply the empire with industrial labor. Coal delivered via train would fairly easily power the factories of Sofia and Instanbul, while barges from Varga, Burgas (or even Salonika) could ship coal Izimar and the other port cities along the Mediterranean coast.

Yes. And not to mention, the demand for railroad would be high. The Ottomans would build a bridge between the European and Asian part of Istanbul, and then the railroad would go through the bridge.
From the European side of Istanbul, the railroad would go to Salonika, Burgas and Sofia.
From the Asian side of Istanbul, the railroad would go to Izmir, and then Adana, and then Antioch, and then it would split to two. One would go to to Mosul and then to Baghdad, the other would go first to Beruit, then to Jerusalem, then to Gaza, and finally, it would split to two: one would go to Alexandria, the other to Cairo.
This railroad would accelerate the influx of workers from the rural areas to the urban areas all the way in the Empire.
Istanbul would become the modern-day London of it's day: only 50% of the population would be Turkish... the rest would be all sorts of minorities: Arabs (Egyptians, Iraqis, Palestinians, Lebanese), Kurds, Bulgarians, Greeks, Assyrians, Armenians, Jews, and even Black Africans (from Sudan) etc.
Just like in Japan's case, the Ottoman Empire would get visitors as well: British, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, etc. businessmen looking to make money in the Ottoman Empire.

In the end, the Ottoman Empire could turn out to be extremely rich, rich enough to make education reform (therefore, increasing the literacy rate from about 30% to about 80% or 90%), create a decent army, and go for colonization.
I bet the Turks would go for annexing nearby North African states, or colonizing Somalia and/or Ethiopia. Maybe the Turks would go for unifying the Arabian Peninsula, and/or even annexing Persia.
 
Why not worry about securing and keeping secured the areas they already have?

Even with more successful reforms (or "even more successful" if you prefer), they have things needing to be sorted out and dealt with - and doing that will be time consuming.

The Ottomans don't need to build an empire, they have an empire.
 

Sang

Banned
The Ottomans don't need to build an empire, they have an empire.

They might have an Empire, but they don't have "overseas colonies", if you know what I mean...
Like... the Brits have Canada, India, Australia, South Africa, etc.
The French have Vietnam, Algeria, Senegal, etc.
The Dutch have Indonesia
See what I mean?
 
Istanbul would become the modern-day London of it's day: only 50% of the population would be Turkish... the rest would be all sorts of minorities: Arabs (Egyptians, Iraqis, Palestinians, Lebanese), Kurds, Bulgarians, Greeks, Assyrians, Armenians, Jews, and even Black Africans (from Sudan) etc.
Just like in Japan's case, the Ottoman Empire would get visitors as well: British, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, etc. businessmen looking to make money in the Ottoman Empire.
Actually, Istanbul was only about half-Turkish throughout the 19th century. The city had very large Greek and Armenian communities as well as a significant Bulgarian one, though information on the other Muslims of the empire living there is a bit harder to get, as all Muslims were recorded as such on the census, rather then as their specific ethnic group.
 

Sang

Banned
Actually, Istanbul was only about half-Turkish throughout the 19th century. The city had very large Greek and Armenian communities as well as a significant Bulgarian one, though information on the other Muslims of the empire living there is a bit harder to get, as all Muslims were recorded as such on the census, rather then as their specific ethnic group.

If Istanbul was only 50% Turkish in OTL, than in this timeline it will be only 30% Turkish or 20% Turkish, or even less...
Perhaps the most cosmopolitan city of it's age (in this timeline) ?
 
They might have an Empire, but they don't have "overseas colonies", if you know what I mean...
Like... the Brits have Canada, India, Australia, South Africa, etc.
The French have Vietnam, Algeria, Senegal, etc.
The Dutch have Indonesia
See what I mean?

"Silly infidels of silly countries that need silly overseas colonies." - me. More to the point, the Ottomans even if they reform have plenty on their hands to govern and defend, more is not better.

"Oversea colonies are awesome! If we're going to be awesome, we need overseas colonies!" is...foolish.

And something like the Arabian peninsula, for the most part, is not much better - leave it to the Bedouin. Its worthless*.

Going beyond Egypt into North Africa isn't much better.

* Yes there is oil, but there's also oil in places worth fighting over. Stick to holding those.
 

Sang

Banned
"Silly infidels of silly countries that need silly overseas colonies." - me. More to the point, the Ottomans even if they reform have plenty on their hands to govern and defend, more is not better.

"Oversea colonies are awesome! If we're going to be awesome, we need overseas colonies!" is...foolish.

And something like the Arabian peninsula, for the most part, is not much better - leave it to the Bedouin. Its worthless*.

Going beyond Egypt into North Africa isn't much better.

* Yes there is oil, but there's also oil in places worth fighting over. Stick to holding those.

What about the goal to unify all Muslims under one State?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Islamism
 
"Silly infidels of silly countries that need silly overseas colonies." - me. More to the point, the Ottomans even if they reform have plenty on their hands to govern and defend, more is not better.

"Oversea colonies are awesome! If we're going to be awesome, we need overseas colonies!" is...foolish.

And something like the Arabian peninsula, for the most part, is not much better - leave it to the Bedouin. Its worthless*.

Going beyond Egypt into North Africa isn't much better.

* Yes there is oil, but there's also oil in places worth fighting over. Stick to holding those.
Actually, the Ottomans wouldn't even need to expand to get most of the oil in Arabia. They held the area of al-Hasa through most of the 19th century, which is where nearly all of Saudi Arabias oil at any rate. This, combined with Iraqs oil, leaves only a few of the oil reserves in the Middle East out of their hands. So that makes even less reason to attack those pesky Nejdis.
 
Actually, the Ottomans wouldn't even need to expand to get most of the oil in Arabia. They held the area of al-Hasa through most of the 19th century, which is where nearly all of Saudi Arabias oil at any rate. This, combined with Iraqs oil, leaves only a few of the oil reserves in the Middle East out of their hands. So that makes even less reason to attack those pesky Nejdis.

Interesting. I did not know that (on Saudi Arabia's oil).

Makes one really wonder why even the Saudis wanted to cover the whole of that area. What is worth holding in the middle of the peninsula besides a claim to being a space filling kingdom?
 
Interesting. I did not know that (on Saudi Arabia's oil).

Makes one really wonder why even the Saudis wanted to cover the whole of that area. What is worth holding in the middle of the peninsula besides a claim to being a space filling kingdom?

"My dick is bigger than yours, Iraq!"
 

Sang

Banned
I think we went a little off-topic here, didn't we? :D
By the way... I'd still love to see a timeline.
 
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