AH Challenge: Meiji Ottomans

[Sang]

Objectives:
-Must: Modernize the Ottoman Army, first based on the French (or British or American, whatever) model, and later on the Prussian/German model (just like Japan did). This has to be done in the 19th century.
-Must: Industrialize the Empire. The reforms must accelerate industrialization, which will make the Ottomans as powerful as OTL Japan. The industrialization should also include making railways, importing blueprints of modern tools, etc. This has to be done in the 19th century.
-Must: Increase literacy throughout the Empire. Compulsory education must be introduced, mainly after the Prussian model. The average Turkish urban citizen must become literate (Turkish rural citizens, Arabs, Jews, Armenians and minorities are optional). The literacy can be increased by any means. This has to be done in the 19th century.
-Optional: Secularize the Empire, just like Atatürk did to Turkey. Abolish the Caliphate, separate politics from religion. This has to be done in the 19th century.
-Optional: Colonize some nearby lands, or at least attempt to return the Ottoman Empire to it's former glory..
-Must: The Ottoman Empire must survive until at least 1945.
-Optional: Make the Ottoman Empire part of Axis during WW2, like Japan.
-Heavily Optional: Don't use ASB


Go for it!

 

[Sang]

Anyone has any ideas?

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

I believe OTL fulfills most of these. Just add keeping them out of world war 1

 

[Sarantapechaina]

Why keep the Ottomans out of the First World War? Just have them join the Entente powers - as the Turks wanted to do in June and July 1914 before they were rejected. (Turkish conspiracy theorists claim that this was because the British and Russians wanted to carve up the empire for themselves, and judging by Anglo-Russian conduct from August to October 1914, I find it hard to disagree - with the caveat that it was mostly just the relevant members of both states' governments and militaries who wanted to do that, not everybody at once.)

 

[Ridwan Asher]

You don't need abolishing the Caliphate to secularize the empire. It was secularizing either way, as the Padishah had lost pretty much all temporal power after 1908. What Kemal did was only some bits of cosmetical modifications that contained radical messages which actually quite harmed Turkish culture and language and brought unfortunate implications throughout the muslim world.

Latest PoD to make it a power on par with imperial Japan, probably even US, is to have the empire won Russo-Ottoman War in 1877-78. That way, you could have saved the Balkan territory which was undergoing proto-industrial phase with burgeoning muslim middle class. You won't ever going to have the Axis like we saw IOTL though, not even OTL WW1.....

 

[Nassirisimo]

Objectives:
-Must: Modernize the Ottoman Army, first based on the French (or British or American, whatever) model, and later on the Prussian/German model (just like Japan did). This has to be done in the 19th century.

The Ottoman armies were reformed along European lines as early as the late 18th century. Both French and British military instructors were sent to help train them at first, but in the reign of Abdul-Hamid II and into World War 1, the Germans replaced them in this war.

-Must: Industrialize the Empire. The reforms must accelerate industrialization, which will make the Ottomans as powerful as OTL Japan. The industrialization should also include making railways, importing blueprints of modern tools, etc. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Easier said then done, as most of what the Ottoman Empire holds is not prime land for Industrialization, being sparsely populated and relatively lacking in Industrial resources. If they hold on to the provinces they held in the Balkans, then the march towards Industrialization they were seeing in the mid-nineteenth century will continue. There could also be some government support of heavy Industry in Anatolia, which has some iron and coal reserves. This could even lead to an indigenous arms industry, but the initial development must come from private sources, probably in the Balkans.[/QUOTE]

-Must: Increase literacy throughout the Empire. Compulsory education must be introduced, mainly after the Prussian model. The average Turkish urban citizen must become literate (Turkish rural citizens, Arabs, Jews, Armenians and minorities are optional). The literacy can be increased by any means. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Difficult, as schooling requires money, something the Ottomans lacked. (Much of it went to the army and navy, which were essential for the preservation of the Ottoman state). If they managed to increase their revenues in the 19th century, say by re-annexing Egypt, they could get the money together to at least introduce schooling to some parts of the country.

-Optional: Secularize the Empire, just like Atatürk did to Turkey. Abolish the Caliphate, separate politics from religion. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Better if this is left alone. Without the office of Caliph being held by the Sultan, there will be much less legitimacy amongst the Muslims of the empire. OTL, it took years and years of disastrous war in order to even make people think of getting rid of the Caliph. And at any rate, what happened OTL wasn't a great desire on the part of the people to be rid of him, merely indifference and a support of Ataturk.

-Optional: Colonize some nearby lands, or at least attempt to return the Ottoman Empire to it's former glory..

They have a few opportunities for this in the 19th century, mainly in Egypt and North Africa. They will not be able to recover any lands in the Balkans, as the Christian powers will not stand for the Ottomans gaining more Christian subjects. Perhaps if the Ottomans are quicker to recover from the crisis of the early 19th century, Egypt could be taken back along with the other rebellious provinces.

-Must: The Ottoman Empire must survive until at least 1945.

If the steps above are followed, this really shouldn't be a problem.

-Optional: Make the Ottoman Empire part of Axis during WW2, like Japan.

With a POD in the 19th century, it is not likely that WW2 like the one in OTL will even happen.

-Heavily Optional: Don't use ASB

Done!

 

[Sarantapechaina]

How possible was it to develop coalfields like the one at Zonguldak before the early twentieth century? Were there technological barriers?

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Difficult, as schooling requires money, something the Ottomans lacked. (Much of it went to the army and navy, which were essential for the preservation of the Ottoman state). If they managed to increase their revenues in the 19th century, say by re-annexing Egypt, they could get the money together to at least introduce schooling to some parts of the country.

Maybe this would require a different enough later half of 18th century ? That period was filled with Janissary's persistent failure and external military pressures that ultimately resulted in Ottoman near bankruptcy from losing to wars and extortions by the great powers. Maybe if Selim was a more gutsy fellow or we have more gutsy fellow in his place as the Sultan the empire could've saved considerable sum of money they lost IOTL. This would have further reaching consequences then just better financed education.

 

[Sang]

I think you are all forgetting about Mesopotamia (Iraq) and the Levant.
They were all parts of the Ottoman Empire until 1918.
Re-annexing Egypt would surely help them.

As for education... the Ottoman Empire's multinational demographics could cause some serious trouble...
While Japan was 100% Japanese, the Ottoman Empire had Turks, Arabs, Assyrians, Kurds, Greeks, Armenians, Jews, etc.
To force the Iraqi, Egyptian, Palestinian and Lebanese youth to learn Turkish at schools would provoke nationalist uprising in the Ottoman Empire.

I believe OTL fulfills most of these. Just add keeping them out of world war 1

Or better yet, make the Central Powers win WW1.

 

[Nassirisimo]

I think you are all forgetting about Mesopotamia (Iraq) and the Levant.
They were all parts of the Ottoman Empire until 1918.
Re-annexing Egypt would surely help them.

As for education... the Ottoman Empire's multinational demographics could cause some serious trouble...
While Japan was 100% Japanese, the Ottoman Empire had Turks, Arabs, Assyrians, Kurds, Greeks, Armenians, Jews, etc.
To force the Iraqi, Egyptian, Palestinian and Lebanese youth to learn Turkish at schools would provoke nationalist uprising in the Ottoman Empire.



Or better yet, make the Central Powers win WW1.

The Christians may be a problem, but as long as the Empire maintains legitimacy as the Caliphate, the Muslim subjects shouldn't really be a problem. Also, I'm not so sure if they Ottomans would enforce Turkish at schools. Maybe later on in the school system, for those looking to work for the government, but there would probably not be a system of Turkification.

 

[Sang]

The Christians may be a problem, but as long as the Empire maintains legitimacy as the Caliphate, the Muslim subjects shouldn't really be a problem. Also, I'm not so sure if they Ottomans would enforce Turkish at schools. Maybe later on in the school system, for those looking to work for the government, but there would probably not be a system of Turkification.

More languages = more types of teachers = more complex system = more expensive system = more expensive

 

[Caesar Australis]

Objectives:
-Must: Modernize the Ottoman Army, first based on the French (or British or American, whatever) model, and later on the Prussian/German model (just like Japan did). This has to be done in the 19th century.

Was done OTL as detailed by others. In fact their army was objectively superior qualitatively speaking to the Russian one in the 1877-78 Russo-Ottoman war... defeat resulted from being outnumbered and the Bulgarian defense being led by a totally incompetent old man. Said old man was only in charge because of the inconvenient assassination of the previous competent commander before the war.

Now for the perception of modernity to take route, well victory against Russia in said war will do that(and takes nothing more then said assasination being avoided). With that they garner some international prestige for their military, and more importantly won't lose the Balkan and North African territories(their greatest sources of revenue) which means more capacity to fund further improvements of their military.

-Must: Industrialize the Empire. The reforms must accelerate industrialization, which will make the Ottomans as powerful as OTL Japan. The industrialization should also include making railways, importing blueprints of modern tools, etc. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Bulgaria was protoindustrial before 1877, while Bosnia had an abundance of coal, iron and wood. As railroads were being developed throughout the Balkans the industrialization of Bulgaria fueled by Bosnian resources is entirely likely if they had held of the Russians in aforementioned war.

It is however near-inevitable that it would be a fairly pitiful industrialization during the late 19th and early 20th century, due to the low population density of the Ottoman territories and more importantly the capitulations imposed upon them by Europeans which forbid a substantially protectionist trade policy.

3 things are necessary for them to go beyond limited light industrial development. Firstly an opportunity to jettison the capitulations(Europeans distracted by a WW1 style conflict would probably be necessary). Secondly growing population in Bulgaria
due to the baby boom that normally comes in the early stages of industrialization and immigration from poorer Middle Eastern regions. Thirdly time to develop Middle Eastern oil reserves and leverage the capital to fund further development.

Given time and relatively few European depredations and they have the long term potential for total industrialization and probably at least lower-order first world status.

Must: Increase literacy throughout the Empire. Compulsory education must be introduced, mainly after the Prussian model. The average Turkish urban citizen must become literate (Turkish rural citizens, Arabs, Jews, Armenians and minorities are optional). The literacy can be increased by any means. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Entirely conditional on having money to spare. Revenue from retained and industrializing Balkan territories+retained Egypt+tariffs once they get the opportunity to jettison capitulations+oil revenue once that starts flowing... much of it will be sucked up debt obligations, military expenditure and infrastructural investment... but some will probably end up subsidizing education as well. Economic growth obviously means the citizens having more money to spare as well, so we probably see growth in private education even if the government is slack in the public department.

-Optional: Secularize the Empire, just like Atatürk did to Turkey. Abolish the Caliphate, separate politics from religion. This has to be done in the 19th century.

Not happening. Islam was the closest the Ottomans had to nationalism, less Islam and the state is a crappier and less stable Austria-Hungary.

-Optional: Colonize some nearby lands, or at least attempt to return the Ottoman Empire to it's former glory..

Eh, they can maybe expand their influence in Africa by backing Muslim proxies in the Sahara, Sahel and East Africa. I've also seen talk in the past of them backing Aceh against the Dutch. But that's not European style exploitative colonialism.

-Must: The Ottoman Empire must survive until at least 1945.

Maybe. But we're talking about a state with 40% of the world oil reserves... I can't see such a situation being tolerated by the foreign powers, they'll find some casus belli to either destroy the empire or split of some of it's oil rich regions(be that separation de facto or de jure).

 

[King Gorilla]

A wealth of raw materials (iron, copper coal, and timber) are available to the ottoman's provided they maintain their hold in Bulgaria. Likewise Kosevo controls major deposits of coal, lead, and iron. Provided the empire retains said territories and their inhabitants, they would be essential towards any sort of Ottoman industrialization.

 

[Nassirisimo]

I could see the Ottomans industrialization being similar to that of Austria-Hungary's. Concentrated in certain areas, not a huge industrial power but a fair sized one, though there may be a wide disparity between the industrialized and non-industrialized provinces. These of course would have their day as oil production increases and funds start flowing their way as well.

 

[Snake Featherston]

1) This was being done by the Committee of Union and Progress. They had all of two years to start doing it before Italy invaded and then the two Balkan Wars and then WWI complicated the whole thing to Hell and gone. The Ottoman reforms were sufficient to ensure that every time they fought the British up to the latter part of 1917 when the British developed superior numbers and the tactics of the Second World War the Ottomans won (though oddly enough Russia kicked their asses every single battle through the war, go figure).

2) This, too, was being done by domestic production and foreign agreements such as with the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, and World War I interrupted it. Adding to the problem was that the Empire, after the defeats of the 19th and 20th Century was in a perpetual problem of trying to do much more with much less, to avoid those defeats requires them to win the 1877 war and this pretty much butterflies away WWI as we know it.

3) Same as the other two, again also interrupted by the war and with the challenge that the nationalists in the rump of the empire were being backed by opportunistic foreign powers using them as proxies and this naturally complicated question of education in certain provinces.

4) Abolishing the Caliphate is not necessary, the CUP was already secularizing the Empire IOTL after 1908. Once more WWI was the big interruption here.

5) The Ottomans tried this in WWI, failed every time against Russia and spent the period 1915-most of 1917 kicking British ass until the British developed WWII tactics and had superiority of numbers to go with it.

 

[Nassirisimo]

1) This was being done by the Committee of Union and Progress. They had all of two years to start doing it before Italy invaded and then the two Balkan Wars and then WWI complicated the whole thing to Hell and gone. The Ottoman reforms were sufficient to ensure that every time they fought the British up to the latter part of 1917 when the British developed superior numbers and the tactics of the Second World War the Ottomans won (though oddly enough Russia kicked their asses every single battle through the war, go figure).

5) The Ottomans tried this in WWI, failed every time against Russia and spent the period 1915-most of 1917 kicking British ass until the British developed WWII tactics and had superiority of numbers to go with it.

The Ottomans didn't actually do as badly as you think against the Russians. It was hardly a one sided affair, as the Ottomans did achieve some victories over the Russians, and the front moved back and forth.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

The Ottomans didn't actually do as badly as you think against the Russians. It was hardly a one sided affair, as the Ottomans did achieve some victories over the Russians, and the front moved back and forth.

Actually, they eventually counter-invaded Russians in Caucasus and The Army of Islam was marching to Astrakhan just before Sevres.

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

Actually, they eventually counter-invaded Russians in Caucasus and The Army of Islam was marching to Astrakhan just before Sevres.

AFTER the Russian Army mostly left to fight in the Civil War.

 

[Mathalamus]

Easier said then done, as most of what the Ottoman Empire holds is not prime land for Industrialization, being sparsely populated and relatively lacking in Industrial resources. If they hold on to the provinces they held in the Balkans, then the march towards Industrialization they were seeing in the mid-nineteenth century will continue. There could also be some government support of heavy Industry in Anatolia, which has some iron and coal reserves. This could even lead to an indigenous arms industry, but the initial development must come from private sources, probably in the Balkans.

so basically your telling me that if the ottomans had just anatolia, they wouldn't be able to industrialize very well or at all?

 

[Nassirisimo]

so basically your telling me that if the ottomans had just anatolia, they wouldn't be able to industrialize very well or at all?

Very well. There would be some limited industrialization, as there was OTL, but there wouldn't be anything to compare with the great powers of Europe, as there could have been.