No, because he has no support. Actually, if RFK had not waited so long (he had made a reasonably firm "yes" decision in the summer of '67 according to Ted in True Compass) and declared his candidacy in November 1967, McCarthy would not do as well as OTL. This leaves Kennedy with the New Hampshire victory and able to compete in the early primaries. 1968 was quite an ideological race, something which the media picked up at the time but was partially submerged by Vietnam. Gene has what today would be considered the "Deaniacs"- the official left, progressives, and a few young people. Humphrey, the New Dealer, has the party establishment and loyalists of all stripes. Kennedy, the proto-DLC candidate, has his coalition of blacks, Hispanics and WWC, namely the New Deal Coalition. No other candidate could hold that together, certainly not McCarthy. In addition, McCarthy has no fundraising apparatus- Humphrey had the relatively useless DNC, which had been gutted of all its talent (on suspicion of being RFK loyalists) by LBJ and was in serious debt. Kennedy, of course, had no money issues. Organization: Humphrey has the party organization. McCarthy has a limited grassroots one but not on a national scale. Kennedy's is most comparable to Obama's- grassroots, amply funded, with plenty of local youth volunteers, but led by seasoned veterans from either in or out of state.