AH Challenge: McCarthy in '68

Wolfpaw

Banned
So, what if Gene McCarthy got the Democratic nomination in '68 and somehow (through the intervention of the fey Allen Specter Butler) manages to beat Nixon. What would his (presumably) one-term presidency have looked like? I suppose we ought to consider how he could realistically get the nomination, unless we'd also like to attribute that to the shadowy Mr. Butler ;)
 
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I will call ASB on this. Gene McCarthy is far too leftist to secure the nomination, the bosses (read Daley) control 75% of the delegates, and they will never allow him to be nominated. McCarthy has a shallow base of support on the left, but nothing else. If the Dems want to win, not to mention have a successful presidency, they'll pick RFK if he lives. There is one possibility, however slim. RFK briefly entertained the notion of making McCarthy Secretary of State (though he'd most likely choose Vance or even Kissinger). So Kennedy wins in November, and something happens that eliminates the line of succession to leave McCarthy as President.

I know it's cliched, but having done McCarthy threads before, anything else is ASB. ;)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I know it's cliched, but having done McCarthy threads before, anything else is ASB. ;)
I think both myself and Mr. A. S. Butler would agree with you on this one, my fine Canuckian friend ;)

I've changed the title to make this an AH Challenge so that we can try and figure out a somewhat plausible way to get Genie elected and to avoid this being (rightfully) dismissed as ASB. Obviously a dead RFK helps this a good deal. Perhaps a running mate in the bosses' pocket would help McCarthy's chances? Or would the bosses demand something like pliable people in the Cabinet or something like that?
 
No, because he has no support. Actually, if RFK had not waited so long (he had made a reasonably firm "yes" decision in the summer of '67 according to Ted in True Compass) and declared his candidacy in November 1967, McCarthy would not do as well as OTL. This leaves Kennedy with the New Hampshire victory and able to compete in the early primaries. 1968 was quite an ideological race, something which the media picked up at the time but was partially submerged by Vietnam. Gene has what today would be considered the "Deaniacs"- the official left, progressives, and a few young people. Humphrey, the New Dealer, has the party establishment and loyalists of all stripes. Kennedy, the proto-DLC candidate, has his coalition of blacks, Hispanics and WWC, namely the New Deal Coalition. No other candidate could hold that together, certainly not McCarthy. In addition, McCarthy has no fundraising apparatus- Humphrey had the relatively useless DNC, which had been gutted of all its talent (on suspicion of being RFK loyalists) by LBJ and was in serious debt. Kennedy, of course, had no money issues. Organization: Humphrey has the party organization. McCarthy has a limited grassroots one but not on a national scale. Kennedy's is most comparable to Obama's- grassroots, amply funded, with plenty of local youth volunteers, but led by seasoned veterans from either in or out of state.
 
Without a few assassinations I do not see a plausible path unless McCarthy has a different ideology than OTL, which negates the point of this challenge.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Without a few assassinations I do not see a plausible path unless McCarthy has a different ideology than OTL, which negates the point of this challenge.
Obstinate bugger ain'tchya ;):p

Well, who else would have to drop out of the running/die? I mean, say RFK decides not to run for whatever reason in '68 or that he dies (plane crash, car accident, crazy gunman) prior to launching his candidacy; surely that would help Gene.
 
No, because Daley and his fellow "Syndicate" bosses control 75% of the delegates. Gene McCarthy is like Howard Dean: beloved by progressives but completely unpalatable to most of the Democratic Party, to say nothing of the electorate at large. Who would vote for him?
 
Wolfpaw: it's ASB. McCarthy committed the Original Sin- rebelling against an incumbent- and without any redeeming qualities like electability and presidential potential like HHH or RFK. Ironically Daley's reservations about RFK (though post-LBJ Daley was always neutral-leaning-RFK) had mostly to do with his "brashness" according to period reports- which means, as usual with him, a personality, not a political issue.
 
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The only way I see McCarthy gaining strong support among the Democratic Base is through RFK endorsing him. I realize that this is not all that possible, but let us say that for some reason he decides to wait out another four years and let McCarthy take the hit. Lyndon Johnson withdraws allowing for Hubert Humphrey to campaign for the Presidency. It is a disaster, with McCarthy (thanks to Kennedy's help) winning all the primaries except Florida, New Jersey, and Ohio. To the average Democratic voter, it appears as if his victory at the convention is assured.

Then the Democratic Party Bosses step in and shatter that dream, nominating Hubert Humphrey anyway. Many are up in arms, McCarthy is shooting off steam, and decides to run on an Independent ticket. Richard Nixon still wins.

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There really is no way for Eugene McCarthy to become the President. Maybe if he waited until 1972 or 1976, but even then he could be facing Robert Kennedy, who would not have entered had it not been for McCarthy's strong showing in the New Hampshire primary.
 
One of Bobby's staffers did propose that to him IOTL. The response was, shall we say, quite unpleasant, and the suggestion was not made again. At bottom they hated each other's guts and would both endorse Hubert rather than each other if forced to choose.
 
What if McCarthy curbstomps LBJ in New Hampshire and the succeeding primaries, giving him enough national clout to disuade Bobby from running, and Johnson to still refuse renomination?
 
No, because Kennedy would be getting in anyways- no matter what. Ambitious for the Oval Office as the Clintons combined, remember? RFK's voters are not going to vote for Gene McCarthy. 1968 is the year of the blue-collar. Ideologically (and socioculturally, which was a major boost with Hispanics especially), Bobby's the best pick. Gene's dilemma was summarized as follows by one of his staffers: "if Gene McCarthy appears in the ghetto, it will harm us with Polish votes in Milwaukee." RFK easily held both constituencies, being "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime". Johnson would not be intimidated by Gene McCarthy anymore than George W. Bush would be intimidated by Lincoln Chafee in 2004 or George H.W. Bush by Pat Buchanan in 1992- a fly to be swatted while the media gawks at it. LBJ's hatred of Bobby was in part based on fear- an inferiority complex to be precise- which would not be the case with Gene McCarthy. Johnson admits in his memoirs that RFK's announcement was the clincher that caused him to withdraw. Both men had made their decisions in the summer of 1967 (RFK to enter, LBJ to withdraw) but "...not to oppose any man, but to propose new policies" (partially true- on policy) was the clincher beyond a shadow of a doubt.
 
I recall in the "Cuban Missile War" TL in "What Ifs of American History", he may have become POTUS after things just all fell to hell. Then again, I felt that the conceptualization of a nuclear/Third World War between the US and USSR in that wasn't well written (everybody just nukes one another from afar, the US decimates the USSR to oblivion ten times over and suffers some strikes herself. Everyone else is fine and Europe becomes snobby and hates us.) but I think apocalypse is your best bet.:D
 
With Out Bobby.

Robert Kennedy who kept saying he hadn't decided if he was running for president, decides not to run. It's a three way fight between Vice President Humphrey who both fairley and unfairley is associted with president Johnsons policys. Then theres Alabama Govenor George Wallace opponent of intagration. Then there's McCarthy who is against the war. Something the other two arn't. All three have a fairly liberal economic plan. Wallace has a lot of deligates in the south. McCarthy and Humphry spliteverything else available. Leaders of several states, decide not to become favorite son candidates since momentum is shifting to McCarthy.
 
Wallace wouldn't seek the Democratic nomination, and you're ignoring the fact that the bosses had sole control over the nomination, controlling 75% of the delegates. Without Kennedy or LBJ in the race, they back Humphrey no matter what. Even IOTL, when after Kennedy's assassination Humphrey's nomination was a given, they suppressed all dissent at the convention- imposed their platform, their candidate and forcibly muzzled dissenting viewpoints. If the Dems lose 1968 (Reagan will wipe the floor with Hubert in '72 if HHH squeaks in over Nixon), Kennedy will be in the position Hillary was in from 2004 to Iowa- or Reagan was from 1976 to 1980- in unquestioned command of the party personally and ideologically.
 
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