AH Challenge: Manchuria - Korea as Rump Qing State

This thread is one part AH challenge and one part floating my solution to that challenge.

The Challenge: With a POD no sooner than 1790, have Manchuria and Korea ruled by the Qing dynasty as budding kingdom in personal union by 1865 or so.

I offer my solution in part to explain just what I mean and in part because I've been toying with the idea. Say a powerful anti-Manchu, anti-Qing dynasty revolt begins in the 1840s. There a number of possibilities (stronger, earlier Taiping; something organized by those protesting against an "Occidentalizing" emperor, perhaps with the help of Lin Zexu; a dynastic squabble). British aid to the Qing (ironic since it will probably have been something like an Opium War that prompts the rebellion) is effectively countered by another foreign power (probably a strong France, but aslo perhaps Russia). With strong bases in southern and central China and a provisional capital in Nanking, the rebel dynasty seizes Beijing in 1850 or so. The European powers force a peace treaty which recognizes a Qing kindom of Manchuria. The British pour money into the Qing as a bulwark against Russia. The Qing effectively assert their dominance over the Joseon dynasty in Korea, a traditional Chinese vasal. In the 1860s, no successor to the Joseon dynasty can be found. [IOTL, the Andong Kims found a "lost" member of the dynasty who seems to have largely been a puppet; something similar could happen TTL]. The designated successor to the Qing throne is married to the last female descendant of the Joseons [optional, since it wouldn't really be necessary nor assure transmission of dynastic rights, but it might allow for some kind of settlement to an internal power struggle].

Thoughts on the overall plausibility of such an event or on potential details to make this happen? I'm not sure Chinese dynastic theory or East Asian culture (either Chinese, Manchu, or Korean) would really allow such a development, but it has the potential for interesting three-way dynamic between a very strong Manchuria-Korea, Japan, and a southern-focused China.
 
Didn't DOD have something like this?

I don't think so. I believe Russia annexed a lot more of Manchuria and later Korea, which would seem to preclude the possibility.

I think Thande may have something interesting in store for China and Korea in LTTW, but there haven't been too many posts on it yet.
 
In China and Korea, females cannot inherit the throne. Nor can they pass on they right to their offsprings.

But a rump Qing in Manchuria is possible. In OTL, Han Chinese are prohibitied from settling in Manchuria beyond the Willow Palisade (i.e. all of Manchuria except the small part to the South) until 1904 - and in 1911 Han had become the majority. That's why the revolutionaries adopted a 18-pointed star flag, which represented only 18 provinces of China proper - they do not consider Manchuria, East Turkestan and Tibet as "Chinese" then. If the Manchus adopt agriculture and populate Manchuria, I think it would be more probable for the Qing to remain there.

But Korea? I don't think so. With a weaker Qing it is even more unlikely that Korea will be annexed. It will go on either of the following route:-

1) [most likely]get annexed by Japan as in OTL. And this comes easier to the Japanese as no Qing would fight them.

2) If the new China reforms as Japan did, it will become part of the Chinese sphere of influence, and might pledge allegiance to China.

3) Come under influence of all the powers, but none of them dominant. But it is less likely due to its proximity to Japan, and its traditional linkage to China - none of them would give it up without a fight. In this scenario it might be nominally a Qing tributary. But Qing cannot annex it even so.
 
This seriously seems like an Asian Austria-Hungary, with the Qing Manchurians lording over the Koreans, although I don't think Asia would have a "Double Monarchy" in the works...
 

yourworstnightmare

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Personal Unions and Double Monarchies was more a European thing. However the outskirts of an Empire is always less controlled by the capital than the core provinces. A special case could have developed as the local authorities gained much freedom from Beijing.

In Asia females don't inherit, quite true. But as always if a prncess or queen has a strong charisma and can create a solid powerbase behind her anything could happen.
 
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