AH Challenge: Manchukuo survives to 21st Century

Gracie

Banned
With a POD of no earlier than 1930 and (you cannot disrupt the PROC from forming in Oct 1949), have the puppet state Manchukuo survive into the 21st century as a nation that joined the UN in the 1950s.

What situation would allow Manchukuo's continuation after the establishment of the PROC in 1949?
 
IIRC, Manchukuo's existance came to an end in 1945. It's fairly easy to have it survive to the end of the cold war: just have the soviets establish it as a Mongolia-type puppet state. However, this would unleash a lot of butterflies, which might prevent the Communists from winning the Chinese Civil War. Not necessarily, however.
 
Ummmmm . . . . I got nothing. Maybe a kinder, gentler Japan (one that doesn't decide to choke itself on China and the rest of the Far East), that the West sees as a counter to the evil Communists? This would need an earlier victory for the Communists . . .

I can see maybe this happening in a TL where WWI takes less time (say successful Gallipolli) leading to quicker Entente victory (No American intervention- Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicates in favor of son post-loss- Germany monarchy remains)- which means Russia now has actual ownership of Constantinople, and various other bits of the Ottoman Empire- Russians create super Yugoslavia by cutting Bulgaria up some more and marrying it to Yugoslavia- British now see Russians as main threat in Europe- Anglo-Japanese Alliance remains- Japan remains sane due to this- Germany makes noises- Russia makes noises back and Germany decides its not a good idea to make noises anymore (no Russian CW means Russia has way more industrialization= obvious superiority to Germany in head to head fight)

Anyway the long and short of this world is that WWI is the true "War to end all Wars"- the Great Powers had shed enough blood to know it was a bad idea, but the killing didn't go on for so long that the old order collapsed. Post WWI I foresee something along the lines of the Congress of Vienna- where Germany is punished to some degree, but not humiliated as per OTL. The Great Powers maintain their colonial empires for longer, spinning them off as independent countries under tighter control (limited independence). Sub-Saharan Africa doesn't collapse as per OTL, because the Asian colonial enterprises that bankrolled the African colonial administrations remain under European control longer. This is not necessarily an entirely nicer world however. There is little Western guilt for the Age of Imperialism, and white racial superiority theories remain popular. Longer control over colonies leads to larger settler populations in places like Algeria, Kenya, Rhodesia, and Manchukuo. On the other hand, the lack of Great Power military conflict means that armies are much leaner, oriented toward counter-insurgency campaigns rather than state on state violence. It has also meant that concerted research to create the atomic bomb has never been done. It remains a pet project of physics department in some of the West's leading universities.
 

Thande

Donor
It's easy to see the survival of an independent Manchuria - eg if the Communists had done worse in the Chinese Civil War but had held on in Manchuria with Soviet backing. But not Manchukuo itself, with the emperor and everything - I don't see how it could have held on without a Japanese victory in WW2, and even then I imagine if the Japanese were that successful they might go the whole way and annex it once they were in a stronger position. In other words, very difficult. Maybe if you have a world with a powerful Soviet Union breathing down the neck of a WW2-victorious Japan, and the Japanese have to keep Manchukuo nominally independent for propaganda purposes...
 
Well, firstly, if this thread is really about Manchukuo, shouldn't it be in Post-1900?

Secondly, what about this for an independent Manchuria: sometime in the 1840s-1860s, a revolt against the Qing leaves a rump Qing kindom in control of Manchuria and far Northern China (though perhaps not Beijing). This rump Qing state also retains the loyalty of the Joseon Dynasty in Korea. It survives mostly because it has foreign backing (perhaps the British). It evolves into something of a dynastic union between Manchuria and Korea (the Joseons had some succession issues around 1860). Machu-Korea fights off the Japanese and ensures independence from the new Chinese dynasty and Russia (another front for the Great Game). Then, the Russian Empire collapses in the early 20th century and Manchu-Korea gains the area around Valivostok.

Eventually, the country becomes more Korean than anything else, but retains a heavy strand of Manchu because of the Qing reaction against all things Chinese after their defeat in China itself.
 
That's ASB territory. Wasn't Manchuria one of the more important / loyal bases of Communist support?
well that means the only option in this case is a victory for the Kuomintang. the Communists are forced to retreat to Manchuria and the Western terr. Both under Soviet protection. Sinkiang, Mongolia and Manchuria all become Soviet clients separating them from Nationalist China.
 
well that means the only option in this case is a victory for the Kuomintang. the Communists are forced to retreat to Manchuria and the Western terr. Both under Soviet protection. Sinkiang, Mongolia and Manchuria all become Soviet clients separating them from Nationalist China.

But the OP specified that the PRC had to be formed AIOTL in 1949.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
It's easy to see the survival of an independent Manchuria - eg if the Communists had done worse in the Chinese Civil War but had held on in Manchuria with Soviet backing. But not Manchukuo itself, with the emperor and everything - I don't see how it could have held on without a Japanese victory in WW2, and even then I imagine if the Japanese were that successful they might go the whole way and annex it once they were in a stronger position. In other words, very difficult. Maybe if you have a world with a powerful Soviet Union breathing down the neck of a WW2-victorious Japan, and the Japanese have to keep Manchukuo nominally independent for propaganda purposes...
Maybe have more popular support for Manchukuo, and once the Japanese Empire begins to crumble, the Emperor decides to break ties with it's...well, I want to say this is plausible. I really do. But I can't seem to shake the idea that this would cause either A: Immediate annexation by the Japanese, or something like that...

What about a POD that is in Europe, not Asia? Russia is swiftly beaten by Germany, Japan grabs the Eastern Coast(well, the important bits) and as the rest of the Empire crumbles around it, Manchukuo declares independence taking the Russian coast with it?
 
Well, Ed Thomas' (EdT) "Greater Britain" TL had a surviving Manchukuo which might have made it to the 21st, but it doesn't have a WWII or the PRC emerging in 1949.

Bruce
 
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