Van Buren was an abolitionist, so I doubt New England would secede.
However, the possibility of Van Buren becoming Lincoln-esque is an awesome idea. I never thought of it on such a scale, but what about having an earlier PDO, perhaps Burr wins in 1800 and goes on to be something of a dictator. Winning three terms for President.
Finally, politics and the War get in the way and Burr is ousted (violently or otherwise). This could probably keep the Federalists in power, who have now become an (ironic) voice of freedom. Timothy Pickering becomes POTUS and is elected to his own term in 1816.
The Federalist Party becomes the universal Party in the short time. James Monroe is America's new golden-boy and is elected to two terms. 1828 is a heated election with the new Nationalist Party hailing war hero Stephen Decatur as their President while Federalists want a good economic man: Henry Clay. Unfortunately, it's the people's choice that wins out and Decatur is elected.
In 1836, the Federalists once again nominate Henry Clay. Decatur has chosen as his successor the Little Magician from New York: Martin Van Buren. Van Buren barely loses, riding mostly on Decatur's post Presidential-popularity. But Clay wins in the end, being forced to deal with the Panic of 1837. Four years later, 1840, Van Buren faces Clay in a rematch. This time it's no contest.
Van Buren is able to juggle the economic hardship and carry it out of his term. The problem is that it was slow going and the Panic didn't truly end until 1843. Van Buren's economic policies are bad mouthed in Congress and state politics. People are beginning to think a National Bank wasn't such a bad idea. In 1844, Senator Nicholas Biddle is elected over President Van Buren.
1844 rides on the bank issue. But soon issues with expansion, especially concerning Mexico grow. Biddle reestablishes the bank, and pushes for expansion diplomatically into Mexico. Of course, expanding into Mexico would involve annexing the newly freed Texas... which would violate Texas' treaty with Mexico.
War is unavoidable and quickly won by 1848. Biddle chooses not to run again in favor of Vice President John M. Clayton. Clayton loses to the Nationalist choice: Martin Van Buren.
Since I'm running out of momentum, I'll just say that the States begin falling apart to sectionalism. Van Buren supports the Compromise of 1851... which many of the southern states do not support. The Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia) secede from the Union, saying the Federal Government has no right to implement such an act.
The Confederacy forms an impromptu Government, basically reviving the Articles of Confederation, and bringing the militias together to form the Confederate Army. Van Buren calls for troops and in a matter of months, the Confederacy is ashamed and slavery is brought to question.
The prevailing attitude is that slavery would end on its own. Van Buren begins talking to the various Senators and Governors about manumission just as the British Empire did in the 1830s. A plan is agreed upon and approved by both Houses of Congress. The Confederacy is put under reconstruction, is completely reconstructed by 1860. And Martin Van Buren is a hero.
1. George Washington (1789-1797) None
2. John Adams (1797-1801) Federalist
3. Aaron Burr (1801-1815) Democratic-Republican
4. Timothy Pickering (1815-1821) Federalist
5. James Monroe (1821-1829) Federalist
6. Stephen Decatur (1829-1837) Nationalist
7. Henry Clay (1837-1841) Federalist
8. Martin Van Buren (1841-1845) Nationalist
9. Nicholas Biddle (1845-1849) Federalist
10. Martin Van Buren (1849-1853) Nationalist