AH Challenge: Make Argentina an industrial power by 1900

You could fill books writing pros and cons of that. You have to bare in mind that Peron's government increased a lot the purchasing power and the access to higher education of the working class, therefore increasing the internal market and the Argentinean talent pool. He also gave a heavy political blow to the real left by, basically, controlling the unions and gaining the support of the working classes, thus turning socialist, communists and anarchist groups in nothing else than far smaller and rather intelectual groups. Without Peron, Argentina might very have ended up with an Allende like figure.
Of course Peron has plenty of cons such as his authoritarism, the extremely strong division he left in the Argentinean politics, impulsing non-profitable industries, attaching the unions to a political party, the personality cult, etc

Although he increase the purchasing power of the Argentines (it was just a short-term measure of Juan Peron, after 1950, Argentina's economic power starts to degenerate 'cause he discourages exports), but he didn't encouraged foreign investment in manufacturing and energy sector (he encouraged the foreign investment in oil in 1953 but the Exxon and the Royal Dutch Shell shun Argentina because Peron is not foreign investment friendly and his anti-market stance). He didn't support the heavy industry industrialization.

Peron was very erratic in terms of political stance (Peron was pro right-wing at the same time pro left-wing), that's why there's extremely strong division among the Argentines. He's very autocratic and demagogic. He use democracy to destroy democracy. He nationalise the railroad system owned by the British and the French (which at that time, the most extensive in the world). After the nationalisation of railways, Argentina's railway system began to disintegrate due to the mismagement and corruption (which Peron had tolerated).

Because of Peron's pro-Facist stand, he destroy Argentina's economy forever and he prevents Argentina to boom economically after the WWII.

If Peron didn't become a president, Argentina would be the 4th largest economy in the world and Argentina would be the 9th member of the major highly industrialized nations, US$50,000 per capita by 2008, 60 million population, and highly innovative and competitive nation in par with US, Japan, Germany, France, and UK.
 
Read the previous post, Tyg got a lot of things right
If Peron didn't become a president, Argentina would be the 4th largest economy in the world and Argentina would be the 9th member of the major highly industrialized nations, US$50,000 per capita by 2008, 60 million population, and highly innovative and competitive nation in par with US, Japan, Germany, France, and UK.
Not even the most anti-peronist Argentineans would even consider such bs
 
If Peron didn't become a president, Argentina would be the 4th largest economy in the world and Argentina would be the 9th member of the major highly industrialized nations, US$50,000 per capita by 2008, 60 million population, and highly innovative and competitive nation in par with US, Japan, Germany, France, and UK.


Excuse me for saying so, but these figures can't be proved. I personally am not a titan of Argentine history, but even Peron-less, the military might have still forced Argentina to be pro-facist. Meanwhile, I notice you constantly repeat these figures. Economies do not sprout just as people claim or predict. It's very likely that Argentina would still be in the top 20 in such a scenario, but even then, 50,000 per capita in USD? Even Japan without the lost decade couldn't top that, most likely. Could you explain how you get these numbers?
 
Excuse me for saying so, but these figures can't be proved. I personally am not a titan of Argentine history, but even Peron-less, the military might have still forced Argentina to be pro-facist. Meanwhile, I notice you constantly repeat these figures. Economies do not sprout just as people claim or predict. It's very likely that Argentina would still be in the top 20 in such a scenario, but even then, 50,000 per capita in USD? Even Japan without the lost decade couldn't top that, most likely. Could you explain how you get these numbers?

Prevent the 1930 coup to happen, Roberto Ortiz remains healthy and became a president in 1934, democratizing the Argentine political system permanently (preventing the military and the communists from making destabilization in Argentina), industrializating the Argentine economy as early as 1920s to reduce the dependence on meat exports, massive European immigration to Argentina in the 30s and after WWII, Argentina should join the WWII with troops, junk the import-substitution industrialization by 1950 and shift to export-oriented industrialization to compete with North America, Western Europe, and Japan, encourage the foreign investment on energy sector, implement a strong and efficient land reform so that the immigrants could have a land in Pampas and Patagonia area (therefore encourages economic development in these areas, not just in Buenos Aires area), invest in education sector, make a nuclear facilities (not for weapons), pacifiying the military and forbids them from meddling in politics, Argentina should remain friendly to the United States, Western Europe and Japan instead of being a neutral country, change the architectural structure of the Buenos Aires and Manhattanize the Puerto Madero, La Boca, Montserrat, and the Recoleta area (today, there's no so much modern skyscrapers in Buenos Aires that New York and Tokyo have).

Economic growth in Argentina without the 1930 coup and Peron:

1950-1960 - 8%

1960-1970 - 10%

1970-1980 - 4%

1980-1990 - 3%

1990-2000 - 5%

2000-2010 - 3%

Without Peron, Argentina would be much prosperous than in OTL and the people around the world would not shun Argentina.


Capitalism is the best. Socialism is bad.
 

maverick

Banned
implement a strong and efficient land reform so that the immigrants could have a land in Pampas and Patagonia area

For this you need a POD in 1878.

Minister of War Adolfo Alsina doesn't die, so the Alsina plan to gradually conquer the Pampas and Patagonia combined with land distribution and town building continues, so instead of 100 rich landowners owning Patagonia, you get thousands in an american model.

Alsina becomes president in 1880, continues with his moderate policies, and by 1900, there's a stable two party system in which the PAN is nevertheless still the strongest, but no authoritarian as IOTL, since it won't fall under the control of the autocratic and genocidical General Roca.

By 1900, the Argentinean army is trained by German (of French)
, not british advisors, meaning that the army is not linked to British economic interests, nor american interests.

In the 1930s, they switch to French military advisors, while the economy industrializes as an effect of several economic crises, and the army is not linked to nazis for the most part.
 
For all Argentine or even non-Argentine posters:

What would be the size of the Argentine economy without WWI, Great Depression, 1930 coup, WWII, 1943 coup, Juan Peron, Cordobazo, Videla, and Menem? Would Argentina's economy at top 10 of the largest economies? Would Argentina's GDP per capita above US$40,000 per capita, Could Argentina host the Olympic Games without Peronism? Could South America stable politically if Argentina remains in the developed nation status?
 
Alsina presidency would means more stronger and democratic Argentina. Julio Roca is undemocratic president of Argentina.

But I have a question:

Is Alsina anti-Chile?

Is Alsina anti-Mapuche?

Could Argentina gets the whole Patagonia area under Alsina?
 

maverick

Banned
No.

No. (most likely, but it doesn't matter, they started attacking in 1876 and Alsina was in charge of the Defense as Minister of War)

No.

But we don't need all of Patagonia, and we him in the Presidency, we wouldn't get it, but if we focus in developing the Pampas and northern Patagonia, we can still see much economic development.

We could still get most of Patagonia, and the stuff south of the Deseado river go to Chile.
 
Prevent the 1930 coup to happen, Roberto Ortiz remains healthy and became a president in 1934, democratizing the Argentine political system permanently (preventing the military and the communists from making destabilization in Argentina), industrializating the Argentine economy as early as 1920s to reduce the dependence on meat exports, massive European immigration to Argentina in the 30s and after WWII, Argentina should join the WWII with troops, junk the import-substitution industrialization by 1950 and shift to export-oriented industrialization to compete with North America, Western Europe, and Japan, encourage the foreign investment on energy sector, implement a strong and efficient land reform so that the immigrants could have a land in Pampas and Patagonia area (therefore encourages economic development in these areas, not just in Buenos Aires area), invest in education sector, make a nuclear facilities (not for weapons), pacifiying the military and forbids them from meddling in politics, Argentina should remain friendly to the United States, Western Europe and Japan instead of being a neutral country, change the architectural structure of the Buenos Aires and Manhattanize the Puerto Madero, La Boca, Montserrat, and the Recoleta area (today, there's no so much modern skyscrapers in Buenos Aires that New York and Tokyo have).

Economic growth in Argentina without the 1930 coup and Peron:

1950-1960 - 8%

1960-1970 - 10%

1970-1980 - 4%

1980-1990 - 3%

1990-2000 - 5%

2000-2010 - 3%

Without Peron, Argentina would be much prosperous than in OTL and the people around the world would not shun Argentina.


Capitalism is the best. Socialism is bad.
I don't want to be mean, but holy hell your posts are getting increasingly annoying: more than once, you've been told quite clearly that these aren't even remotely likely things to happen or that your conclusions are completely absurd leaps of faith with no basis in reality.

Starting from the OP, the way Argentina's government was set up in 1820, it was impossible for it to be stable, it was a super centralized system that none of the provinces would have accepted.

While I'm far from being a Peronist, he was not the worst thing to happen to Argentina, he was in fact a consequence of the first coup, which itself was a consequence of the Great Depression.

Furthermore, he was vital in bringing Argentina into the modern world (admittedly, he forced it and as a result Argentina has a slew of social problems today), and without him conditions for laborers would remain at XIXth century levels.

What would be the size of the Argentine economy without WWI, Great Depression, 1930 coup, WWII, 1943 coup, Juan Peron, Cordobazo, Videla, and Menem?
:mad: Butterflies man, do you want to kill them all?

No WWI would have such far-reaching butterflies, that the rest of the 20th century would be completely different for the whole world (also, it would allow Argentina to remain a huge agricultural exporter and as a result grow wealthy through that).

No Great Depression would again have huge repercussions the world over, although in the short term for Argentina it means no drop in exports and as a result no collapse of the Agro-exporter economy (this butterflies away the 1930 coup).

...the rest are just too absurd to even mention.
 
For all Argentine or even non-Argentine posters:

What would be the size of the Argentine economy without WWI, Great Depression, 1930 coup, WWII, 1943 coup, Juan Peron, Cordobazo, Videla, and Menem? Would Argentina's economy at top 10 of the largest economies? Would Argentina's GDP per capita above US$40,000 per capita, Could Argentina host the Olympic Games without Peronism? Could South America stable politically if Argentina remains in the developed nation status?
Argentina would be devastated and Southern South American would be a terrible place to live. Seriously, look:
The balance of power in Europe results in a "Great Game II" or some sort of cuasi Cold War due the fear of chemical weapons against population centers and exceeding confidence in the role of air forces. This accelerates technological development through arm races between the major powers. By the 1940s Imperial Germany is the first country to sucessfully test an atom bomb, which accelerates nuclear research throughout the world.
In the meantime, in Argentina, the conservatives, seeing they don't stand a chance to return to power in free elections, hold military coup after military coup, which increases the independence and arrogance of the local military leaders. The military, following the worldwide trend, also entices indutrial development and scientific research through the armaments indutry. The world remains at peace and Argentina's exports begin to diversificate. Small border disputes and overall rivarly mark the relationship between Southamerican countries through this decades, but war is averted. In fact, the closest thing to war was a conflict between Bolivia and Paraguay, which is avoided through Argentinean negotiators, hence increasing the already important arrogance of the country leaders and population.
By the 1960s and 1970s rivalries between the ABC countries (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) increases due petty comercial and border disputes. Eventually, by 1972 Argentina and Chile go to war due border disputes in the Magallanes strait. Bolivia and Peru join Argentina due rivalries with Chile and Bolivia's wishes to regain a sea exit. Sensing an Argentinean victory, and future predominance, a hard line hawk Brazilian government declares war on Argentina, but Argentinean forces manage to invade southern Brazil through Uruguay (which turns to be some sort of WWI Belgium - neutral and invaded to get easy access to another country). In desesperation, Brazil stops the Argentinean offensive with tactical nukes. Argentina, who secretly has them but refused to use them because international pressure, feels the gloves are off and launches a dozen fission nukes against Chilenean and Brazilian cities. Brazil responds in kind and Chile counters with chemical and biological attacks against Argentinean population centers.
It is a possible outcome
 
For all Argentine posters here in AH.com:

Since tommorow there in Argentina is the 199th anniversary of the May Revolution, what would be the best case scenario for Argentina to fully industrialize by mid-20th century? also what would be the best case scenario for Argentina to achieve the standard of living of France and Germany?
 
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Furthermore, he was vital in bringing Argentina into the modern world (admittedly, he forced it and as a result Argentina has a slew of social problems today), and without him conditions for laborers would remain at XIXth century levels.

No, Juan Peron deprives Argentina to become a full-fledged high developed nation by isolating Argentina from foreign trade, he discouraged foreign investment through the reckless nationalization of railroads, he encourages the people follow him always or else, you are a traitor (a sort of cult of personality), he encourages civil disturance, he tolerates corruption, he discourages entrepreneurship, he discourages free trade and he destroy the property rights. Because Juan Peron is a facist fanatic thats why he destroy Argentina.

Juan and Evita Peron are very flamboyant and demagoge people in Argentina and because of them, they destroy Argentina not only economically but also the reputation of Argentine people. Because of Peron, most of the people around the world especially in Asia shun Argentina.

Without Peron would be a prosperous Argentina. Laissez-faire and Free trade economics always works while economic nationalism and fair trade always destructive.
 
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For all Argentine posters here in AH.com:

Since tommorow there in Argentina is the 199th anniversary of the May Revolution, what would be the best case scenario for Argentina to fully industrialize by mid-20th century?

I'd like to answer, but it's a complicated question. I don't think it isn't doable, but I'd have to think it trough. The thing is, before 1930, it wasn't worthy (for those who had the money) to set up factories here, as goods could be bought abroad at much cheaper prizes, and custom taxes where low. There was a lot of money to be made much more easily in other sectors (agriculture, services, etc.), so industry was neglected.

Also, for complex cultural reasons, the landowner elite wasn't inclined to invest in the industrial sector. It only started doing so (very cautiously at first) after 1930, when (as manufactured goods couldn't be imported any longer) enormous profit became easy available for those who invested in the industrial sectors.

This could have been changed, but I have to think well about how.
 
Since tommorow there in Argentina is the 199th anniversary of the May Revolution, what would be the best case scenario for Argentina to fully industrialize by mid-20th century?

I'd like to answer, but it's a complicated question. I don't think it isn't doable, but I'd have to think it trough. The thing is, before 1930, it wasn't worthy (for those who had the money) to set up factories here, as goods could be bought abroad at much cheaper prizes, and custom taxes where low. There was a lot of money to be made much more easily in other sectors (agriculture, services, etc.), so industry was neglected.

Also, for complex cultural reasons, the landowner elite wasn't inclined to invest in the industrial sector. It only started doing so (very cautiously at first) after 1930, when (as manufactured goods couldn't be imported any longer) enormous profit became easy available for those who invested in the industrial sectors.

This could have been changed, but I have to think well about how.

What if the import-substitution was encouraged in 1890, a good time for industrialization and a stable economy than in 1930?
 

Deleted member 5719

What if the import-substitution was encouraged in 1890, a good time for industrialization and a stable economy than in 1930?

I dont see how this can be done, the Argentinian economy was growing quickly through the export of agricultural produce. The ruling classes were oligarchic landowners who were getting rich off this, and porteno merchants and politicians who were taking their cut.

You need a psychic socialist dictator who has seen dependency theory textbooks from the 1970s in his crystal ball in order to make this happen.
 
1890 was not a good time for industrialization. Not only the international crisis was breaking havoc among Argentinean economy and politics, but also the infraestructure wasn't yet ready to exploit the iron, coal and oil resources Argentina has. As explained, these aren't easly accesible and are spread instead of concentrated. Inmigration was in its beginings so there is hardly a market to sell industrial goods and 1890 is not a global world where you can relatively easly export overseas.

Now, to the topic at hand.
Maverick suggestion of keeping Alsina alive is an interesting one (a small butterfly is that Carlos Tejedor might not rebel, or might not have support for his rebellion, so the city of Buenos Aires remains part of the province of Buenos Aires). I don't think however that the wealthy elite wouldn't pressure for the conquest of the Patagonia in order to own those lands so, either:

  • Around 1884 Alsina is forced to attack and conquer as much as the Patagonia as he can
  • Whoever wins the 1886 presidential election does so. That might be Roca or he might be butterflied away from nation wide Argentinean politics. I don't think so as he probably would, at least, be the one leading the conquest
  • Chile gets as much as they can of the Patagonia, reaching the Atlantic. IF Argentina still mantain claims on those lands that has a fair chance of a war between Argentina and Chile, somewhere between 1895-1940. Such a war would likely devastate both countries.

In any case we would see a ring of small farms owned by a rural middle class and large settlements further south. How much south is an open question.

As we move into the 20th century and asuming no war with Chile (or Brazil, which depending on butterflies still has a small chance of happening by the turn of the century) there would still be no industrialization until a major economic crisis ala the 1929 crisis or WWII (either otl or atl). At this point such industrialization can be more solid as there is a larger internal market for its products. Whoever political leader arises in the mist of these butterflies needs to take the following measures:

Dilute social conflict by making the necessary social reforms (8 hours shift, paid vacations, legal unions, health care, democracy, etc). Your point for Laisse Fairez would work against this and that would lead to more blood (workers at strike being shot by the police, military or, esencially, death squads) and hence, radicalization. With a Laisse Fairez economy, real communist leaders have a chance to seize power, either democratically or by force.

Encourage profitable industries. I'm not sure which ones these would be. Agricultural related industries for sure, which would lead to the development of an auto and chemical industry, petrochemical depending on what happened to the Patagonia. The military would also have a saying on this, so it would be plausible to see a dual use nuclear program (as in otl), small arms industries and probably aeronautics and shipbuilding industries. Whether those last two can be made profitable, I don't know. Some of this projects are likely to encourage investment in science and technology. Tourism should be encouraged as well, specially later on when aeronautic advances makes travelling around the world cheaper and faster.

Take the appropiate meassures to make Argentina less vulnerable to global economic crisis and more politically solid. A revocative referendum might do a lot for the latter, but I don't see how to plausible change the Constitution to add it. A Parlamentary system might work in that same direction and is less harder. Regarding the economy, no idea how.

The thing is, Argentina would need a long term strategic plan and such a thing will not exist as long as businessmen understand that, not only the economy will crash every 10 years or so, but also that those crashes would be radically changing the economic enviroment and such changes are impredictable as they depend a lot in political decisions made by few people who might not consult all the major business actors. Argentinean history is full of political decisions that broke apart entire sectors of the economy and without preventing this there is no way of long term plans that will allow long term investments. By long term I mean around 10 years or so
 
1890 was not a good time for industrialization. Not only the international crisis was breaking havoc among Argentinean economy and politics, but also the infraestructure wasn't yet ready to exploit the iron, coal and oil resources Argentina has. As explained, these aren't easly accesible and are spread instead of concentrated. Inmigration was in its beginings so there is hardly a market to sell industrial goods and 1890 is not a global world where you can relatively easly export overseas.

Since you say that 1890 is not a good time for industrialization, what year would be the good time for Argentina to industrialize?

You just need a strong democratic institutions by 1920 to ensure stability in Argentina an to avoid Peronism.
 
Since you say that 1890 is not a good time for industrialization, what year would be the good time for Argentina to industrialize?
The 1920s at the very most, and that with an international context that favours industrialization. Remember that there is no way at this time for any Argentinean manufacture would outcompete European/American products in European/American colonies, puppets and so on.

You just need a strong democratic institutions by 1920 to ensure stability in Argentina an to avoid Peronism.
Or you can make social reforms before Peron comes into the stage. Doing so would deprive him from his support base. But that's a hard one as well
 
The 1920s at the very most, and that with an international context that favours industrialization. Remember that there is no way at this time for any Argentinean manufacture would outcompete European/American products in European/American colonies, puppets and so on.


Or you can make social reforms before Peron comes into the stage. Doing so would deprive him from his support base. But that's a hard one as well

You say that 1920s is the best time for industrialization. In order to achieve this, Argentina should encourages import-substitution in the stable times of 1920s instead in the times of Great Depression of 1930s. If Argentina does have an industrial capacity to export industrial products to US and Western Europe, Argentina should shift to export-oriented industrialization in order to compete with American and Western European countries in terms of exporting industrial products (East Asian style of industrialization in Argentina that I will going to suggest to you).

To have a reasonable social reforms, by 1920s, Argentina should prioritize the social reforms alongside with democratic reforms to avoid populists to rule in Argentina like Peron such as 8-hour work, prohibation of chile labour, fair and efficient land reform, universal free health care, universal free education, and democratization of labour unions in order to have reasonable Argentine society without severe divisions made by Juan Peron's facist style social reforms.

Also for democratic reforms, I want to reduce the importance of the Armed Forces in the Argentine politics such as depriving them the right to participate in political processes such as voting in free elections, running in public office, and working at civil service.

In foreign policy for Argentina, Argentina should be pro-US and pro-Western Europe instead of being neutral to avoid any economic boycott to Argentine products. Argentina should not accept any offer from Nazi Germany, Facist Italy and Communist Russia because these 3 countries hates freedom and democracy.

Carlos Saavedra Lamas is an anti-US and anti-democracy that's is why he block Argentina from participating in World War II .
 
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Because of Juan Peron's economic destruction, Argentina's image around the world is negative, there is no Manhattan-type skyscraper in Buenos Aires, there is no Argentine company at the top 2000 of largest companies in the world.

The only POD for Argentina to become a highly developed nation by 2000 is to butterfly away Juan Peron from the scene and replaced it with Roberto Ortiz (we say did not die in 1942 but instead he died in 1972) reduce the budget of Argentine Armed Forces to 1% of GNP.
 
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