AH Challenge: Louisiana War of 1804

[stevep]

Steve: I was thinking about those political problems when I came up with the first timeline: I realized that if the Americans were to make a few early victories and then stop to offer terms while the French were still fighting the British, then the Napoleon might decide it would be worth it to decamp his force for some British post that would do more damage to his immediate enemy, and take a reduced sum for the Territory from the Americans.

It seems that the French government's main hope would be that at some point early in the campaign, the Americans fall flat on their face, and decide to act like it never happened.

Thoughts?

MacCaulay

Sorry about the slow reply but been very busy this week so 1st look at the pre-1900 board since last Sunday!

It might be a possibility although one problem would be the vast distances involved. Napoleon was not one for allowing much initiative in his sub-ordinates so you have the problem of who the US negotiate with and when. If they have to try talking to Paris, even if he doesn't have to leave to fight in eastern Europe, it would take time. Things could change dramatically in the Americans while that was going on. [Alternatively, if the US wins some early victories as you suggest and then offer negotiations will they believe the local French commander when he says something like we’ll agree a cease-fire and contact Paris who will let you know in a few months?]

I would also suspect, unless they really balls up, the French to win the initial encounters. They would have very tough veteran troops and probably the support of the local population, both colonial and Indian. The US would have to expand from its very small peacetime base, which traditionally means a lot of militia who tended to be unreliable in combat and commanders who needed the dead-wood thinning out. They could find a Jackson type leader who might hold his own but I would expect the 1st year or so to be pretty rough for the Americans unless the French over-extend themselves.

If a deal was agreed where would the French troops go? Difficult to see them going somewhere by sea with British control. If they march through the US to attack Canada then, a) Britain is pissed off with the US, which may suit Boney but could be nasty for the US and b) how and where do they trace supply from? Unless the US would be willing to switch sides totally and work with the French as allies, say agreeing they could have Canada? This might be difficult given the conservative nature of the French in Canada and also would the US feeling happier with Boney rather than George III as their neighbour?

Steve

 

[Doeth]

Hey!

I'm doing a tl of this...

But America got a tad more owned by the Europeans...

EDIT: I know he was supposed to give it to Spain, its still in the thinking stages...

 

[Nicole]

Why would Vermont be added to Quebec- it would probably be separate, and I think Maine would be separate as well.

 

[stevep]

Why would Vermont be added to Quebec- it would probably be separate, and I think Maine would be separate as well.

Interesting idea but I agree with Imajin about Vermont, especially as it makes a long and vulnerable border for both sides. If the US makes the wrong choice and takes a beating, which appears to be the case, I could see the Indian Confederation later becoming a Canadian state. Possibly also Maine but Vermont makes the border too unstable.

Not sure I can see Louisiana lasting given the potential power difference between the US and the French colonies, unless your presuming a permanent French empire which supports it strongly. In that case I would expect further conflicts down the line as the US seeks to expand.

Interesting about the super-Brazil and the fact it still seems to be linked to Portugal. That is a bit different and would like to know the background to that.

Steve

 

[Darkling]

Interesting idea but I agree with Imajin about Vermont, especially as it makes a long and vulnerable border for both sides. If the US makes the wrong choice and takes a beating, which appears to be the case, I could see the Indian Confederation later becoming a Canadian state. Possibly also Maine but Vermont makes the border too unstable.

Britain would much prefer upstate New York so in any scenario where they get Vermont they would probably run the border west to Lake Ontario.

Not sure I can see Louisiana lasting given the potential power difference between the US and the French colonies, unless your presuming a permanent French empire which supports it strongly. In that case I would expect further conflicts down the line as the US seeks to expand.

This Louisiana also seems to include the Red river area which it really shouldn’t (this area was given to the US by Britain but wasn't part of Louisiana).

I also wonder about France expanding it’s holdings by pushing the border West to Lake Superior, I doubt the British would be impressed by that.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

There is simply no possibility for this POD. Great Britain was never going to accept Napoleon as the world's most powerful ruler.

All that this does from the British perspective is make the US a junior ally while leaving a large piece of the French Army out where the RN can cut the supply line at its own leisure, probably claiming much of the French navy and merchant marine in the process.

It would also be out of character for Napoleon as the impending demise of the Treaty/Ceasefire of Amiens is the main reason he abandoned Haiti, rather than leave a fairly substantial army in a hopeless position.

Furthermore, doesn't that leave Napoleon in a hopeless position? Build a more powerful fleet and provoke London to war or leave matters as they are and, when war begins anyway, accept that all of his efforts and resources in Louisiana were for nothing.

 

[DuQuense]

Not sure about the Vice royal of Florida.

Remember in 1806 Spain offered to sell the US Florida, and all of new Spain north of the Red River\ California border, which at the time meant north of San Fransisco.

 

[Doeth]

Its a rough map. The USSRA, about the onlything that could hint at it being a modern map is sort of a visual note I leave on my maps, to help me remember.

The Red river border (will) be the agreed border between the US, Britain, and Spain.

New France will become a British Kingdom (ATL Dominion) In a couple of seconds

Vermont remained independent, tired of the bickering between New Hampshire and N<ew York, the joind Quebec...


This is all extremely tenetive.

 

[Wendell]

Not sure about the Vice royal of Florida.

Remember in 1806 Spain offered to sell the US Florida, and all of new Spain north of the Red River\ California border, which at the time meant north of San Fransisco.

I have never read about this before. Have you more information, or, perhaps, a map?

 

[DuQuense]

Well there is this [Unfinished]
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/printthread.php?t=3577

You surf the web and come across a titbit like this. You think Wow Great. & it sticks in your memory. A year later you go hunting and can never find it again.

Some Times I hate the Web.

 

[MacCaulay]

DuQuense: That is creepy. But I honestly think your idea was more realistic. The more I look at it, the more I realize that, even HAD the French decided to keep it, the Americans wouldn't be in any position to take the land until a long while afterwards. 1820, at least.