AH Challenge: Larger South Africa

Interestingly, it is possible that through this process, an ATL Nelson Madela might still end up a respected and prominent black politician. OTOH, the likes of ATL Mugabe, Mbeki, Zuma, Dos Santos, and the rest of the militant black nationalists leadership will either rot in maximum security prisons, or languish in exile. Not a bad result at all if you ask my opinion.

I don't know if I agree with your statement that Mbeki and Zuma are militant black nationalists. Remember, Mandela was the founder of the ANC's armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe.

And which Mbeki are you referring to? Govan or Thabo, because Thabo was never in jail, he went abroad before the authorities had a chance to arrest him.
 

General Zod

Banned
I don't know if I agree with your statement that Mbeki and Zuma are militant black nationalists. Remember, Mandela was the founder of the ANC's armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe.

True. OTOH, in an ATL more moderate British-oriented white segregationist regime, it is likely that he would pursue his law career, and end up as a moderate civil rights leader.

And which Mbeki are you referring to? Govan or Thabo, because Thabo was never in jail, he went abroad before the authorities had a chance to arrest him.

I mean the current president loonie who denies the reality of HIV and endorses another health minister nut promoting garlic and lemon as a cure for Aids. Honestly, I acknowledge I dunno if he technically qualify as a militant nationalist. But his stubborn stance on HIV negationism screams "dangerous political extremist nut" to me. Similarly, as it concerns Zuma, his rape trial hints me he might be another closet Mugabe-like "big man" thug. Those personality flaws of them, which I do not find any in Mandela, is why I saw both of them taking the route of violent black nationalist extremism in ATL. Of course, I might be mistaken on both.
 
The Rhodesias and the High Commission Territories have already been mentioned, so how about Angola and Mozambique? There was talk since before WWI of Portugal either selling some colonies to avoid ruin or having them simply given to Nazi Germany by Western consensus as an alternate form of appeasement. I could see how South Africa could end up with most or all of Mozambique and maybe part of Angola.
 
Yes, Viriato's analysis is quite excellent. Tip of my hat. :cool:

There's only an aspect of it that leaves me wondering. I believe the numbers he gives for European post-WWII immigration are too limited, and only right if one restricts it to UK and Northern Europe. If, as it is likely, we also take Southern Europe into consideration, there were several countries (e.g. Italy, Spain, Portugal) that were the source of massive emigration in the 40s-60s. It is reasonable to assume a significant slice of it would have gone to an immigration-friendly Greater South Africa. Therefore his numbers IMO should be doubled or tripled, to a 1-2 million new citizens in the 40s-60s. Assume they doubled their numbers in the next generation (1st-generation immigrants generally build somewhat large families), and you have the white minority boosted to 20-25% of the population in 1980s-2000s. Still a minority but one that would be less in the grips of siege mentality and better able to enforce favourable power sharing schemes.

I think the main problem with attracting a large number of white immigrants to Africa was that you already have a large pool of unskilled labour that places like Canada, Australia and to a lesser extent the United States lacked. There was a large out migration from Southern Europe in the 1950-1973 period, however most of the emigrants went to other European countries, mainly France, West Germany, Switzerland and the Benelux countries and the United Kingdom. These countries were close meaning that transportation was cheap and often men would emigrate alone leaving their families behind and often it was temporary. Those that chose North America or Australia were able to find unskilled jobs paying much higher than those in South Africa or Rhodesia. In fact some jobs payed so little that workers were recruited in Mozambique and Malawi.

The immigrants South Africa and the Rhodesias attracted during this period were overwhelmingly English-speaking for a reason. Most immigrants went to work in the service industry or in the civil service, most also had some sort of capital and were educated. The few that did go into the agricultural sector were generally well off as farming in Africa was very capital intensive. There were some immigrants from Southern Europe including Portuguese, Greeks and Italians. They generally dedicated themselves to commercial ventures, owning restaurants, small markets or being middlemen.

What the South African government needed and wanted were doctors, engineers, technicians etc. If white rule had lasted longer I'm sure that the government would have attempted to attract Eastern Europeans in the 1990s. After the collapse of communism, the former Soviet Bloc had a large pool of highly-skilled individuals that would have been highly desirable. Being that the SADF strove for self-sufficiency due to international sanctions and I'm sure they would have tried to attract Russian or Ukrainian personnel from the former Soviet defence industries.

If South Africa manged to become home to a large enough Russian diaspora of say 100,000 or more, this could impact Russo-South African relations. The Russian government may try to be soft on South Africa to protect the large Russian community. As far fetched as this may seem, Greece and Portugal were often reluctant to be too harsh on South Africa in the 1980s for that very reason.
 
I think the main problem with attracting a large number of white immigrants to Africa was that you already have a large pool of unskilled labour that places like Canada, Australia and to a lesser extent the United States lacked. There was a large out migration from Southern Europe in the 1950-1973 period, however most of the emigrants went to other European countries, mainly France, West Germany, Switzerland and the Benelux countries and the United Kingdom. These countries were close meaning that transportation was cheap and often men would emigrate alone leaving their families behind and often it was temporary. Those that chose North America or Australia were able to find unskilled jobs paying much higher than those in South Africa or Rhodesia. In fact some jobs payed so little that workers were recruited in Mozambique and Malawi.

The immigrants South Africa and the Rhodesias attracted during this period were overwhelmingly English-speaking for a reason. Most immigrants went to work in the service industry or in the civil service, most also had some sort of capital and were educated. The few that did go into the agricultural sector were generally well off as farming in Africa was very capital intensive. There were some immigrants from Southern Europe including Portuguese, Greeks and Italians. They generally dedicated themselves to commercial ventures, owning restaurants, small markets or being middlemen.

What the South African government needed and wanted were doctors, engineers, technicians etc. If white rule had lasted longer I'm sure that the government would have attempted to attract Eastern Europeans in the 1990s. After the collapse of communism, the former Soviet Bloc had a large pool of highly-skilled individuals that would have been highly desirable. Being that the SADF strove for self-sufficiency due to international sanctions and I'm sure they would have tried to attract Russian or Ukrainian personnel from the former Soviet defence industries.

If South Africa manged to become home to a large enough Russian diaspora of say 100,000 or more, this could impact Russo-South African relations. The Russian government may try to be soft on South Africa to protect the large Russian community. As far fetched as this may seem, Greece and Portugal were often reluctant to be too harsh on South Africa in the 1980s for that very reason.


Have to agree with virtually everything in this post. This ATL South Africa would still have (as OTL SA did) trouble recruiting a large number of immigrants. And of course they didn't need a large numbers of immigrants due to the large unskilled black population. SA would always have to go for 'quality' over 'quantity' in regards to white immigration.

An interesting point is the extent to which a large number of white immigrants will help or hinder the development of the sort of South Africa we are talking about here (ie no apartheid but minority rule with gradual co-optation of skilled blacks)

Certainly an increased white population would reduce the siege mentality that the OTL white population developed. However TOO much massive immigration will potentially be a disadvantage if too many middle managment and semi-skilled positions in the economy are taken up by the new immigrants, as these are the sort of positions needed to 'bribe' the educated blacks into accepting the system.
 

General Zod

Banned
I have considered the arguments of Viriato and mtg999. However, I also think that such arguments neglects the role that an active subsidy of the SA government to white immigration might have in removing the barriers to substantial arrives of new whites.

If the South African govenrment offers substantial subsidies and incentives to unskilled white immigration, with the express purpose of replacing part of the unskilled blacks in the workforce and replenishing the numbers of the white minority, I assume that a substantial part of that large migration from Southern Europe may choose South Africa instead of Northern, Central, and Western Europe. This would bring massive numbers in the 1950-1973 period.

I agree that South Africa would also try and be largely successful in attracting massive immigration from Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
 

General Zod

Banned
An interesting point is the extent to which a large number of white immigrants will help or hinder the development of the sort of South Africa we are talking about here (ie no apartheid but minority rule with gradual co-optation of skilled blacks)

Certainly an increased white population would reduce the siege mentality that the OTL white population developed. However TOO much massive immigration will potentially be a disadvantage if too many middle managment and semi-skilled positions in the economy are taken up by the new immigrants, as these are the sort of positions needed to 'bribe' the educated blacks into accepting the system.

This is true to a degree. However, I also assume that there is a temporal mismatch between white immigration and education of blacks that may offset this problem to a point. If the massive white immigration takes place in the 1946-1973 period, the rise of educated blacks in substantial numbers will occur in the 1970s and onward, when the bulk of the white immigrants ought to have been assimilated already, and leave plenty of places in the economy for educated blacks, too, in a steadily expanding economy.
 
This is true to a degree. However, I also assume that there is a temporal mismatch between white immigration and education of blacks that may offset this problem to a point. If the massive white immigration takes place in the 1946-1973 period, the rise of educated blacks in substantial numbers will occur in the 1970s and onward, when the bulk of the white immigrants ought to have been assimilated already, and leave plenty of places in the economy for educated blacks, too, in a steadily expanding economy.

Actually that is a good point. Especially as co-optation of educated blacks would be seen to be more necessary from the 1970's onwards, as prior to around that time period, groups such as the ANC, etc, didn't have such a mass following, relatively speaking.
 
My larger South Africa is:

South Africa includes Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

South Africa's population including Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique would reach to 85 million as of 2007.

More whites in South Africa than in OTL. I presume a 50% white people in South Africa if British had brought convicts into South Africa or more immigration of English people to South Africa.
 
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