AH Challenge: Italy dominant axis power in WW2.

And can you name a single historical example of this happening? And can you think there might be a reason for that?

Puppets are puppets because they benefit from outside resources. If the puppet genuinely control the country he can swiftly gather more resources than his master and defy them as he pleases.

Well, to give you a quick answer, Germany has allowed a much weaker France to call the shots in the EU after WWII, despite being a much stronger economical power. In exchange, France facilitated Germany's rehabilitation.

As to this challenge:
Much like Germany, Italy's economy operated at considerable lower efficiency levels than it could have, for political reasons. Secondly, Mussolini was an idiot who mismanaged the war on an even grander level than Hitler did. If he had actually wanted to screw up his war effort, he could not have done a better job.

So how can this pan out? Let's assume the Italians do a little bit better in WWI, sufficiently to be a major player in the post-war peace negotiations. And let's assume Italy blocks the punitive reparations demanded by France. This would garner Italy considerable goodwill in Germany and Austria.

OTL, Hitler was a great admirer of Mussolini and Germany actually was the junior fascist partner of Italy for awhile and backed down over Austria in the 1930s under Italian pressure (until France and Britain forced Italy in a Italo-German alliance).

But while Germany's economy bloomed, Italy's stagnated under corrupt and incompetent leadership and strategies.

It wouldn't take too much changes to have Italy perform to its potential in economic and military issues. Perhaps Mussolini's power and influence is curtailed by the Fascist council and the unhealthy relationship between industrialists and the fascists is cut. Or the King develops a backbone. Nah, that would be ASB but perhaps the army clips Mussolini's wings when he tries to raise the blackshirts in a rival organization.

The Italian army was actually quite good by late 1930s standards. Its problem was that Mussolini enlarged it beyond the limitations of its manpower pool and industrial output, leading to a large army with insufficient, outdated equipment and poor leadership. A smaller army of higher quality would improve their chances. And a more focused strategy which played to their strengths instead of scattering their forces and focus. Instead of major campaigns in North Africa, the Balkans and Russia which was beyond Italy's logistical capacity, a campaign in a single theatre would have been well within their abilities and would have placed their opponents in difficulties.

Just imagine a properly motorized Italian army in North Africa, with sufficient supplies.

Could such an Italy have dominated Germany? No, but then Germany did not dominate Italy from the start either. Italian weakness sucked Germany into the Italian war effort and eventually forced it to prop up the faltering Italians.

Had the Italians done better, they would have been top dog in their own sphere of influence and could well have been an equal partner in European affairs.
 

Krall

Banned
Well, to give you a quick answer, Germany has allowed a much weaker France to call the shots in the EU after WWII, despite being a much stronger economical power. In exchange, France facilitated Germany's rehabilitation.

As to this challenge:
Much like Germany, Italy's economy operated at considerable lower efficiency levels than it could have, for political reasons. Secondly, Mussolini was an idiot who mismanaged the war on an even grander level than Hitler did. If he had actually wanted to screw up his war effort, he could not have done a better job.

So how can this pan out? Let's assume the Italians do a little bit better in WWI, sufficiently to be a major player in the post-war peace negotiations. And let's assume Italy blocks the punitive reparations demanded by France. This would garner Italy considerable goodwill in Germany and Austria.

OTL, Hitler was a great admirer of Mussolini and Germany actually was the junior fascist partner of Italy for awhile and backed down over Austria in the 1930s under Italian pressure (until France and Britain forced Italy in a Italo-German alliance).

But while Germany's economy bloomed, Italy's stagnated under corrupt and incompetent leadership and strategies.

It wouldn't take too much changes to have Italy perform to its potential in economic and military issues. Perhaps Mussolini's power and influence is curtailed by the Fascist council and the unhealthy relationship between industrialists and the fascists is cut. Or the King develops a backbone. Nah, that would be ASB but perhaps the army clips Mussolini's wings when he tries to raise the blackshirts in a rival organization.

The Italian army was actually quite good by late 1930s standards. Its problem was that Mussolini enlarged it beyond the limitations of its manpower pool and industrial output, leading to a large army with insufficient, outdated equipment and poor leadership. A smaller army of higher quality would improve their chances. And a more focused strategy which played to their strengths instead of scattering their forces and focus. Instead of major campaigns in North Africa, the Balkans and Russia which was beyond Italy's logistical capacity, a campaign in a single theatre would have been well within their abilities and would have placed their opponents in difficulties.

Just imagine a properly motorized Italian army in North Africa, with sufficient supplies.

Could such an Italy have dominated Germany? No, but then Germany did not dominate Italy from the start either. Italian weakness sucked Germany into the Italian war effort and eventually forced it to prop up the faltering Italians.

Had the Italians done better, they would have been top dog in their own sphere of influence and could well have been an equal partner in European affairs.

So basically we'd need Mussolini to not mismanage the Italian economy? Once that's done, their economy and industrial capacity could boom like Germany's did?


What territory do you think Italy could get off A-H? Could they get the entire 'Austrian panhandle' and get an actual border with Germany? From what I know, Austria itself was the area with the most industry in A-H, so could Italy get some of it?
 
Well, to give you a quick answer, Germany has allowed a much weaker France to call the shots in the EU after WWII, despite being a much stronger economical power. In exchange, France facilitated Germany's rehabilitation..
West Germany was not signifcantly more powerful than France. Also Germany's status as pariah was quite a source of weakness. Also Germany was nowhere near being a French puppet.

As to this challenge:
Much like Germany, Italy's economy operated at considerable lower efficiency levels than it could have, for political reasons. Secondly, Mussolini was an idiot who mismanaged the war on an even grander level than Hitler did. If he had actually wanted to screw up his war effort, he could not have done a better job
So how can this pan out? Let's assume the Italians do a little bit better in WWI, sufficiently to be a major player in the post-war peace negotiations. And let's assume Italy blocks the punitive reparations demanded by France. This would garner Italy considerable goodwill in Germany and Austria. .
There is no way on earth Italy could block reparations. I would also question how much better the Italian economy could realistically perform.

OTL, Hitler was a great admirer of Mussolini and Germany actually was the junior fascist partner of Italy for awhile and backed down over Austria in the 1930s under Italian pressure (until France and Britain forced Italy in a Italo-German alliance). .
Britain and France did not force Italy into a German alliance. Mussolini chose one because it gave him what he wanted in terms of expansionist opportunities.

Had the Italians done better, they would have been top dog in their own sphere of influence and could well have been an equal partner in European affairs.
Possibly, but that's not really the question under discussion.
 

Krall

Banned
Well, it wasn't.

Well it's certainly more relevant to the question at hand than discussing why it's apparently ASB for Italy to become the dominant member of the axis.

If you're not going to be constructive and help find a way to answer the challenge question, then just stop posting in this thread.
 
Well it's certainly more relevant to the question at hand than discussing why it's apparently ASB for Italy to become the dominant member of the axis.

If you're not going to be constructive and help find a way to answer the challenge question, then just stop posting in this thread.

I'll post where I please thank you very much.
 
Well it's certainly more relevant to the question at hand than discussing why it's apparently ASB for Italy to become the dominant member of the axis.

I don't think anybody is going to achieve this by strengthening Italy; it has to be done by weakening Germany.

Now there is some potential there. Let's take our point of departure as sometime around 1917 so that Wilson has a stroke and his 14 points never get issued. Without them to act as an inducement to surrender, Germany fights on until it collapses utterly some time in 1919.

Now, we look on Germany as an integrated whole but in 1919 this was a relatively new phenomena. The German Empire was only founded in 1870 so would have been less than 50 years old - and there were a lot of tensions between the various parts. So, in the maelstrom of defeat and occupation, Bavaria splits away, declares independence and negotiates a surrender deal all of its own - one that includes recognition of its status as an independent state. They get a relatively good deal since most of the animosity and rancour is directed at the Prussians. Other German states see this and follow suit, reverting to independent entities and getting a deal. France and the UK love this because it eliminates Germany as a unified threat to them. eventually, all the German states have broken away from Prussia and Prussia is left standing on its own. Prussia gets hammered under the peace treaty, being effectively dismembered and disarmed.

Italy goes more or less as historical except it gets some bits of Austria-Hungary it didn't get historically. So, its a little stronger. However, the key point is that its the strong victorious Mediterranean country, and it has no real rivals north of the Alps. What there is, is a Balkanized group of relatively small and weak states. Italy starts to become a dominant power in those small states (more by not doing much than by doing anything) since they look to Italy as a "big brother" who will prevent them from being re-absorbed by the slowly-recovering Prussia. Since Italy talks the talk but doesn't have to walk the walk, it gets away with holding that status.

So, by the 1930s we have a situation where Italy is the de-facto protector of the small, southern German states and is de-facto allied with them. When the Nazi take-over comes, it happens in Prussia only so the balance of power is Italy plus its southern German allies vs a weak Nazi Prussia. That means Italy and its allies dominate the Axis when it gets formed. QED.

How's that?
 
West Germany was not signifcantly more powerful than France. Also Germany's status as pariah was quite a source of weakness. Also Germany was nowhere near being a French puppet.


There is no way on earth Italy could block reparations. I would also question how much better the Italian economy could realistically perform.


Britain and France did not force Italy into a German alliance. Mussolini chose one because it gave him what he wanted in terms of expansionist opportunities.


Possibly, but that's not really the question under discussion.

Well, I would argue that from 1955 onwards, Germany was a significantly more potent economic power than France. They didn't translate this economic power into political power in the EU (and its predecessors) however and allowed France to be the main engine (the Adenauer-de Gaulle understanding). This Paris-Berlin axis largely formed the engine behind the development of the EU.


If Italy had cracked the Isonzo and rolled up Austria while the French and British were still dead-locked on the Western Front, then France would not be able to demand all that much since it had not defeated Germany. Alternatively, the Italians could threaten to start throwing their weight around the Med and Africa if France and Britain got too greedy in a peace treaty. That would not please France or Britain at all as their colonies were dear to them. The only question would be why Italy would want to do that? Perhaps for the same reason they signed their original treaty with Germany pre-WWI?


Italy sided with France and Britain over many issues in the early part of the 1930s and it single-handedly forced Germany to back down when it wanted to annex Austria. But when Italy attacked Ethiopia, the Western powers condemned this. An isolated Italy then had no other chance but to forge close links with Germany, leading to the Axis of steel alliance. And thus Germany was able to annex Austria and complete its rise to great power.
 
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Well, I would argue that from 1955 onwards, Germany was a significantly more potent economic power than France. They didn't translate this economic power into political power in the EU (and its predecessors) however and allowed France to be the main engine (the Adenauer-de Gaulle understanding). This Paris-Berlin axis largely formed the engine behind the development of the EU..

You can argue what you like, but Germany was only about 10% richer per head than France about about 10% larger in population. It's hardly a massive preponderance.

If Italy had cracked the Isonzo and rolled up Austria while the French and British were still dead-locked on the Western Front, then France would not be able to demand all that much since it had not defeated Germany. Alternatively, the Italians could threaten to start throwing their weight around the Med and Africa if France and Britain got too greedy in a peace treaty. That would not please France or Britain at all as their colonies were dear to them. The only question would be why Italy would want to do that? Perhaps for the same reason they signed their original treaty with Germany pre-WWI?.

The Italians could not crack an egg. If they had it would probably not have led to the defeat of Germany and Italy was massively economically dependent on Britain and France anyway,

Italy sided with France and Britain over many issues in the early part of the 1930s and it single-handedly forced Germany to back down when it wanted to annex Austria. But when Italy attacked Ethiopia, the Western powers condemned this. An isolated Italy then had no other chance but to forge close links with Germany, leading to the Axis of steel alliance. And thus Germany was able to annex Austria and complete its rise to great power.

The condemnation over Ethiopia demonstrated to Mussolini that Britain and France would never give him the free hand he wanted. In fact the British and French continued to court Mussolini extensively, he had other options but due to his imperial ambitions he chose not to exercise them We no this due to the latest research into the Italian archives. Suggestions of Italy having no other option are simply not true. Hitler would support Mussolini's ambitions.
 
The only way I could imagine this happening would be if Italy ended up as the centre of a kind of Super-Italy confederation (possible candidates - Austria, Yugoslavia....) and Germany was substantially reduced. There's a lot wrong with this, of course. Namely that Austria and Yugoslavia might not find any common ground with Italy.

It would also require a WW1 in which Germany was absolutely smashed, and in which Italy played a key role in the smashing.

This is the only remote possibility of such a thing happening, and to be honest it does seem pretty ASB, but better than nothing. For a better TL, one would have to go before 1900, probably with a united Italy emerging very early, and dominating the Balkans instead of Austria.
 
How about removing Hitler from the equation and letting Germany stay a bit longer in political instability during the early 1930s?
Then with his power base secured in Italy, Mussolini starts funding and supporting fascist movements in Germany. In the end you have some other guy come to power in Germany (around 1939), since the poverty went on for longer and the German people were more displeased. And that guy is actually a puppet from Rome. He would have to be someone who wouldn't try however to backstab the Italians then.
WW2 would still happen, but it would probably start in 1945 or so.
 

Krall

Banned
How about removing Hitler from the equation and letting Germany stay a bit longer in political instability during the early 1930s?
Then with his power base secured in Italy, Mussolini starts funding and supporting fascist movements in Germany. In the end you have some other guy come to power in Germany (around 1939), since the poverty went on for longer and the German people were more displeased. And that guy is actually a puppet from Rome. He would have to be someone who wouldn't try however to backstab the Italians then.
WW2 would still happen, but it would probably start in 1945 or so.

You have no idea how perfect this is for my idea for a TL [which was the reason I started this thread].
 
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