AH Challenge: Independent Estonia from 1918

Douglas

Have Estonia retain its independence from 1918 to the present.

The Soviet Union must (at the very minimum) annex all of the territory it did after the end of WW2 in OTL at some point, but leave Estonia independent.

The POD must be after 1933.
 

Analytical Engine

Urk...

I can see *all* the baltic states becoming Soviet puppets, if Stalin croaks it either before the War starts or sometime during the beigining...

Maybe they just keep Estonia as a puppet, because Latvia and Lithuania would be fine as a bulwark? :confused:
 
DrakonFin

DrakonFin

A longer, more indecisive WWII leads to the collapse of both the Nazi regime and the Soviet Union, resulting for the Baltic area in a situation akin to the one following WWI. The Western Allies dismember Germany and Russia is divided for an extended period by a new civil war. A centralized, stable state starts to emerge out of the Russian mess in the late fifties, but it will stay externally weak for decades. Germany is allowed to reintegrate post-1970, partly as a answer to the resurgent Russia, but reintegration is slow and the new democratic, highly federalist Germany has no designs towards Eastern Europe.

Since the Soviet/German occupations of 1939-1947, the Baltic states have retained their independence.
 

CanadianGoose

Banned
Douglas said:
Have Estonia retain its independence from 1918 to the present.

The Soviet Union must (at the very minimum) annex all of the territory it did after the end of WW2 in OTL at some point, but leave Estonia independent.

The POD must be after 1933.
Click to expand...
Stalin decides to go "Warsaw Pact" instead of "Unification with USSR" in 1939. He can't let Estonia be hostile, with 80 km of flatland between it and Leningrad and things starting to get hairy in Europe. Too much of a risk. But he could install friendly puppet regime there.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
ASB, USSR annexing Latvia and Lithuania, but not Estonia is impossible. If USSR had not annexed Estonia, neither would Latvia or Lithuania had been annexed. they were a package deal.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Well, no Fall of France would seem the best POD. Stalin won't then think that Anglo-French threats to bomb Baku etc are voided, and he won't dare an aggression in the Baltics. He always played it a step at a time, and if the odds were too stacked against him, he would not take the step.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

CanadianGoose

Banned
No Fall of France will not make Stalin less nervous, as hostile Estonia remains convenient bridgehead next door to Leningrad. Out of 3 Baltic countries, Lithuania has most chances to be left alone, as it does not possess anything of value for the Soviet regime (Latvia has Riga). Although, if you think about it, it is pretty close to Minsk an provides good route for outflanking Soviet defences in Belarus...
 
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