I'm wondering what it would take to shift China into the kind of state that would expand overseas.
My initial thought is that during the Yuan dynasty, the Mongol's overseas expeditions (Japan, Java) are more successful. Java and at least part of Japan become Chinese provinces, and Chinese seagoing commerce expands correspondingly. When the Yuan dynasty is eventually overthrown, let's say the overseas provinces are kept, and a vigorous new dynasty decides to push outward some more, focusing on the islands to the east instead of the nomad lands to the west. Perhaps Chinese conquests are aimed at he Philippines and the rest of Indonesia? (Or, if we want to get somewhat wilder, Hawaii and even the Pacific Coast?)
My initial thought is that during the Yuan dynasty, the Mongol's overseas expeditions (Japan, Java) are more successful. Java and at least part of Japan become Chinese provinces, and Chinese seagoing commerce expands correspondingly. When the Yuan dynasty is eventually overthrown, let's say the overseas provinces are kept, and a vigorous new dynasty decides to push outward some more, focusing on the islands to the east instead of the nomad lands to the west. Perhaps Chinese conquests are aimed at he Philippines and the rest of Indonesia? (Or, if we want to get somewhat wilder, Hawaii and even the Pacific Coast?)