Hnau
Banned
I like the death of Nicholas II in 1891... its a minimalist approach to the challenge. I would say that George dies only a little later than OTL, he already had so much medical attention as it was, so by the year 1900 his younger brother Michael of twenty-two years takes the throne. The West will be shocked when a twice-divorced commoner becomes the Russian Empress.
Michael won't be as stubborn as Nicholas, that's for sure. If I've read the man well enough, he was cautious and listened to the advice of others, he was more practical and rational than Nicholas, but he was also somewhat lazy and dispassionate. He'll probably make the same decisions as Nicholas II... until he finds himself in a situation in which Nicholas would have stubbornly forged ahead against the odds, faithful that God was on his side. Instead he'll panic and make rash deferments to the advice of others as well as popular opinion.
So where Nicholas was completely oblivious to the rising tensions with Japan, Michael will pay attention. The Japanese offered to negotiate in 1903 and early 1904, and there was fear that Russia would win if a war did come. They offered a guarantee of Russian suzerainty in Manchuria in return for a guarantee of Japanese suzerainty in the Korean peninsula. If the Russians become more involved in this dialogue, they'd be stupid not to agree to these terms. By 1905, a treaty divides Manchuria and Korea between the two powers. When Japan annexes Korea in 1910... who knows, the Russians will probably tighten control over Manchuria as well, though I don't think the region would be annexed.
The 1905 Russian Revolution will still happen, but it will be less intense, and I don't think Michael will be so adamant to keep total authority over the country... I think that the State Duma will have more powers, and that Michael will want the creation of the Duma to end opposition to his rule... within a few years, the Duma will take full control as the legislative branch of the Tsarist government, and the Russian Empire will become a representative constitutional monarchy. By 1910 there is something like a Bill of Rights, ensuring religious freedom and freedom of the press, as well as more freedoms for labor unions. Russification ends very quickly, though the non-Russians won't be encouraged at all to differentiate themselves. Finland and Poland aren't given any more autonomy than any other part of the country, but they do get more representation compared to OTL. Though Stolypin may or may not gain as much influence as he did, reforms of the type he pioneered will be present: privatization of land, as well as introduction of agricultural cooperatives, Siberian homesteading, dissemination of new technologies and knowledge to the peasants to help farming, etc. etc.
There's a number of butterflies. The Anglo-Russian conflict in Central Asia continues, as Russia doesn't find itself in a place of weakness, which sours relations. Franz Ferdinand might not be assassinated, though another crisis might wrap Europe into a conflict, sooner, or later. A slightly stronger Russian economy, the existence of three Russian fleets instead of one... if war does come, it will be completely different. Britain might not join, America might join earlier with a more democratic Russia, etc. etc... in any case, there is much, much less chance for a revolution as devastating as the one that occurred in 1917. The Russian Empire continues, adapts, fortifies itself... and it remains by the year 2009, probably in a radically different world.
Michael won't be as stubborn as Nicholas, that's for sure. If I've read the man well enough, he was cautious and listened to the advice of others, he was more practical and rational than Nicholas, but he was also somewhat lazy and dispassionate. He'll probably make the same decisions as Nicholas II... until he finds himself in a situation in which Nicholas would have stubbornly forged ahead against the odds, faithful that God was on his side. Instead he'll panic and make rash deferments to the advice of others as well as popular opinion.
So where Nicholas was completely oblivious to the rising tensions with Japan, Michael will pay attention. The Japanese offered to negotiate in 1903 and early 1904, and there was fear that Russia would win if a war did come. They offered a guarantee of Russian suzerainty in Manchuria in return for a guarantee of Japanese suzerainty in the Korean peninsula. If the Russians become more involved in this dialogue, they'd be stupid not to agree to these terms. By 1905, a treaty divides Manchuria and Korea between the two powers. When Japan annexes Korea in 1910... who knows, the Russians will probably tighten control over Manchuria as well, though I don't think the region would be annexed.
The 1905 Russian Revolution will still happen, but it will be less intense, and I don't think Michael will be so adamant to keep total authority over the country... I think that the State Duma will have more powers, and that Michael will want the creation of the Duma to end opposition to his rule... within a few years, the Duma will take full control as the legislative branch of the Tsarist government, and the Russian Empire will become a representative constitutional monarchy. By 1910 there is something like a Bill of Rights, ensuring religious freedom and freedom of the press, as well as more freedoms for labor unions. Russification ends very quickly, though the non-Russians won't be encouraged at all to differentiate themselves. Finland and Poland aren't given any more autonomy than any other part of the country, but they do get more representation compared to OTL. Though Stolypin may or may not gain as much influence as he did, reforms of the type he pioneered will be present: privatization of land, as well as introduction of agricultural cooperatives, Siberian homesteading, dissemination of new technologies and knowledge to the peasants to help farming, etc. etc.
There's a number of butterflies. The Anglo-Russian conflict in Central Asia continues, as Russia doesn't find itself in a place of weakness, which sours relations. Franz Ferdinand might not be assassinated, though another crisis might wrap Europe into a conflict, sooner, or later. A slightly stronger Russian economy, the existence of three Russian fleets instead of one... if war does come, it will be completely different. Britain might not join, America might join earlier with a more democratic Russia, etc. etc... in any case, there is much, much less chance for a revolution as devastating as the one that occurred in 1917. The Russian Empire continues, adapts, fortifies itself... and it remains by the year 2009, probably in a radically different world.