AH Challenge: Have Russia Annex China

how would such a conference affect World War 1, with Russia having more manpower to draw upon?
 
Let this ridiculously implausible challenge die already.
China is worse off than our timeline therefore it is implausible.
If only I could do that with the 90% of timelines and discussions that involve Russia.
At Avalon: It's not much really. First of all Russia wouldn't get the most populated parts except northwest China. Secondly they're not going to use Chinese troops to fight a war in Europe. At most they would fight the Germans at Tsingtao or something and that is it.
As far as a timeline... well, the Europeans could carve up up China late 1890s early 1900s. In the years before WW1 Chinese anger would most likely be directed at the foreigners.
When WW1 blows up I have a feeling China will blow up as well, leaving a large mess in the place with panicking colonial masters and Chinese of varying ideologies... There would probably be a coalition government (at first) to fight off the Europeans. Whoever did not get a piece of China or is willing to sacrifice it could support the Chinese.
After that Chinese history could branch off a number of ways, from civil war to the impacts of whatever ideology gets into power.
 
1795 ->

When napoleon enters the fray and western europe once more gets involved in its favorite hobby of killing eachother, the tsar decides to stay neutral.
Paul I, the reformer, would be a bit less asinine about previous favorites and allow the zubovs to continue with the persian campaign. Nor would he be as open handed buying new friends and seeking to eradicate his mothers legacy.

The end result of which is a treaty of gulistan -like borders, and the rest of persia satellited. A guard of 10.000 soldiers and zubov as governor ensures the treaty holds in respect of trade and loyalty. Theres even some training up of loyal enough local soldiers, fortifications etc.

With the ancient link between persia and central asia broken, bukhara, samarkand, merv and the rest fall in the next year, and even more investments take place.

The treasury reforms have been sucessful enough, far from a preussia or briotan in efficiancy, there is nevertheless considerble extra funds that arent being wasted in central european wars. None of these central asian wars require more than 15.000 men in the field.

Prussia and austria are doing worse tho, than historically. And the westphalian kingdom is set up by 1805. The Polish grand duchy contains all that was taken by prussia and austria.

Napoleons impatience with tsarist neutrality eventually boils over and in 1808 he invades with his grand army. Britain as historically is causing trouble in iberia. A militarily stronger, but less expirienced russia fights more battles and bloodier battles than historically, moscow is burned and napoleon has to march back while supply lines are in complete shambles and the empire is threatened in the rear. This goes much as historically, but sooner. In the pursuit, the polish grand duchy, now elevated to kingdom under paul I (who never ended up antagonicing his nobles too far), becomes part of the russian empire. Paris falls and napoleon is sent to elba by 1810.

Britain who is now more in control of india, is alarmed by the russian position of strength in persia, and is forced to admit a live and let live non-agression deal respecting eachothers territories is in the best intrest of them. This adds english diplomatic support to future actions by the tsar, just as the tsar congratulates the company on their progress in india.

1815 there is a border skirmish between qing and russian forces at the border between russian central asia and xingxiang. One that goes very well indeed for the, by now, napoleonically skilled soldiers. Infact they seize half of north western china just by pursuit.
The tsar, never willing to lower the flag where it has once been raised, authorises more troops to be sent in and ultimately some 150.000 soldiers end up occypying all of north china, and some inland along the coast upto and including beijing, the northern capital. (including korea)

The dragon emperor however refuses to accept peace and raises more troops, forcing the russians to answer, leading to a further 200.000 entering the war, partially as garrisons but also as fresh strike forces going ever deeper where the qing lose every battle, even when outnumbering the russians. Finally with all of mainland china occupied, 1817, the qing emperor commits suicide.
The tsars generals, as is common, allow local governance to continue and place their own governors to oversee things. Starvation from neglected rice irrigation systems are avoided and life continues mostly unchanged. There just is a new emperor, a tsar, that rules from very far away but his local governors are always present.

The next decade sees smaller rebellions by loyalists, but also much progress by introduction of modern techniques. The trade is allowed to continue, and unlike the previous policy, the tsar is more than happy to accept british (and others) manufactured goods for tea, silk and porcelain. The eastern seas fleet thus ends up being the mightiest in the pacific, and the many intricate mechanical goods are being diligently copied by artisans resulting in cheaper knockoffs that even the russian peasants and the chinese subjects can afford.

Lack of labour in the central asian and siberian lands lead to population transfers from the crowded chinese heartlands, with whole communities of artisans skilled in the knockoff-industry included. This results in local industries developing. Not exactly factories are are being seen in britain. but artisan driven.
A new culture is being created, eastern in look but christian and russian speaking. One that is settled and technically skilled and taking over the empty lands in the empire.

By 1825 the old chinese classics of the confusian gentlemen are being studied in russian (that by now has many chinese loanwords and idiomatic expressions), with the neo-confusian notion taken even further by the introduction of entirely western works. Even their education is taking place now in modern universities on the english model teaching aside from the skills also a imperial identity that the new educated class (russian, chinese-russian and other groups alike) are adopting.

This new identity is a break (partially) with the old identity which held that one became a imperial citizen by military service alone. Now you still leave your family and are trained elsewhere, but instead of becoming military alone, there are other venues open ones that dont even keep you from returning home. The break between the classes will thus never get as bad as during historical times, where the ones that had gone thru the military machine were practically speaking completely alien to the regular peasant, resulting ultimately in the soviet revolution. This new educated elite is closer to the masses, especially once the village schools are set up and a limited universal education takes root.

The surplus wealth allows even more than mere education to forge a empire of splintered nationalities into a nation, it also funds railways and industries far earlier than historically, as part of the payments for chinese rawmaterials are ready to operate factories, even factories capable of producing the neccesary precision tools required for even more mechanization.

The russian empire is definatly up to western standards regarding industry, railway and telegraphy. And much of it home made by 1840.

At that point the southern border also starts causing trouble, the old and almost forgotten foe, the turk is in trouble. Their former vassal egypt, is conquering them. The tsar, after deliberations and discussions with their english friends, decide to assist the turks. Muhammad ali is quickly defeated, egypt returned to the turks and the The Treaty of Hünkâr İskelesi is signed, creating an alliance and allowing unlimited access thru the straits, also opening up ports.

The british are getting more concerned, but the old agreement holds. The austrians make more sound, but are ignored. France and prussia dare nothing with the polish kingom acting as a powerful enough buffer. Unlikely they could even reach russia before being pummeled silly by this new and industrialised russia or 700.000.000 reasonably well educated imperial citizens. One that definatly isnt short on funds. Manchurian and Ural (&ukrainan etc) steel serves peace and a mighty threat to anyone violating the tsars homelands.
There is even talk on liberating algiers for their ottoman ally, but the tsar desires peace.

1848, prussia accepts the liberal proposal to form germany, not having the strength to defeat its neighbours. Once more the tsar desires peace, why bother with some tiny provinces when the east is where the future lies?

Perversly enough, the great successes have done little to convince anyone serfdom is wrong. It has nevertheless been fading as industry has marched onward and the links to old manors faded. Capitalism with dividends is the new way for the rich to live, not as landed aristocrats but as capitalists. The few remaining landed estates have instead been growing huge indeed, with investments allowing for greater production with far less labour. Even here the cog-thinking is taking root. Old inefficient villages living at near minimum sustenance are almost extinct, only to be found in the most marginal of areas. And even there farming is far from the sole business.

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End points,

The raising of domestic capital resulted in increased efficiency and thus staying out of the spiral of poverty that historically plagued russia.

Education formed the new identity, rather then military. It is also a shared nationalistic identity. The great divide that the panslavs and others were complaing about never had time to set its roots.

Russian culture was heavily changed by the chinese assimilation, the language is russian with far more loan words. Chinese rebellion is unlikely as the race has taken over the empire while the culture is russian with modification. Christianity is followed by the vast majority.

Authocracy and orthodoxy remain strong. Serfdom exists, but mostly in name alone. By 1900 less than 1/2 of a percentage live in anything resmbling serfdom and even then its more likely than not at a factory and not a farm. There has been no great pressure to reform, as things have been going smoothly on their own. Private wealth accumulation is tolerated as the empire has more than what it needs.

The great war is unlikely to happen, with a liberal germany, weak austria (that may yet splinter all on its own), and the surviving english-russian alliance of convenience. Even the ottoman empire is likely to live on as a protectorate of sorts of russia.

The southern slavs live under ottoman suzeranity, but can call upon frotection from russia, who acts as a protector of the entire ottoman empire.

The poles have their kingdom, and the tsar has shown little intrest in his title. make no trouble, get no trouble is the byword for polish culture and people.

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Too rosy? :)
Yeah i know.. im a bit hopeless in that regard.
 

CalBear

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Usually we lock necro'd threads, unless the new post has something substantive to add.

This seems substantive to me.
 
Let's start with the basic premise.

Keeping Russia out of central European affairs is probably a must. And the best way to do it is to limit their possessions to the west. So far you've kept Finland out of Russian hands, which is a good start and might see Russia pulling the capital back to Moscow when it's rebuilt or a generation after. The latter would in turn make a big difference in pulling Russian focus into asiatic affairs. Even up to the 1900s in OTL the Russians were using their Asian-ness as a propaganda tool when they felt it useful.

Keeping them out of Poland as well would arguably be better. It makes a clear cultural/economic line between East and Central Europe that probably last indefinitely. But more to the point, it makes pan-Slavism more romantic and less practical, and will - to Russian thinkers - make places like the Balkans feel further away.
 
Let's start with the basic premise.

Keeping Russia out of central European affairs is probably a must. And the best way to do it is to limit their possessions to the west. So far you've kept Finland out of Russian hands, which is a good start and might see Russia pulling the capital back to Moscow when it's rebuilt or a generation after. The latter would in turn make a big difference in pulling Russian focus into asiatic affairs. Even up to the 1900s in OTL the Russians were using their Asian-ness as a propaganda tool when they felt it useful.

Keeping them out of Poland as well would arguably be better. It makes a clear cultural/economic line between East and Central Europe that probably last indefinitely. But more to the point, it makes pan-Slavism more romantic and less practical, and will - to Russian thinkers - make places like the Balkans feel further away.

The polish debacle had less to do with intrest in central europe, than in that eternal feud between brothers. Also historically russia did attempt to get the entire polish kingdom after the napoleonic wars, and was even backed in this by prussia (who was more interested in saxony).

Nevertheless, it is not a important point, aside from functioning as a convenient buffer to central europe.

The far more important constellation is the persian move and thus the acute threat at india (which could be fought to everyons detriment, or be countered by acceptance), while this move also turns independent tartaria into a true vacum that just begs the tsar to enter.
A earlier presence in central asia, should also lead to a earlier crisis at xingxiang/tarim basin, as historically did. Earlier, and thus less of a international awareness.

Therein comes the second big change, and at the same time the premises for said scenario, conquest of china. Which in my view can really only be nibbled at, or then swallowed. Especially that han-circle, the area is just too interconnected. And as is the nature of rice, even a lack of constant maintenance at all time all along the entire irrigation system, will quickly lead to massive starvation.
Therefore its all or quite literally nothing for everyone.


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I know i also sort of jumped over the intricacies of the first and second industrial revolutions, except at hinting in the most obscure fashion. But the idea was to finish the text in a few hours, not a few years :)
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And yes, i didnt mention panslavism much. And yes, the powercenter isnt as far west either as historically, and this new sino-russia might not even feel the same bonds except on a religious level. A religious link which is well served by functioning as protectors of said minority in the lands of their weak ally in the south.
Besides, as even Catherine II put it, the greek project was only an illusion.
 
Actually, while breaking Persia could significantly accelerate Russian advances into Central Asia, conquering it would seem to make a Chinese move less likely.

If the Russians truly dominate or even annex Persia, it will become the center of their focus for a generation. Probably more. They'll have an enormous border with the Ottomans, whose disposition will now become a constant worry. They have an enormous population to manage/dominate over a tremendous logistical distance. They'll be trying to establish themselves in the Red Sea in the face of local powers and will want to secure intermediate ports en route.

Keeping Persia would absorb the attention of the state to the detriment of almost all else.
 
The polish debacle had less to do with intrest in central europe, than in that eternal feud between brothers. Also historically russia did attempt to get the entire polish kingdom after the napoleonic wars, and was even backed in this by prussia (who was more interested in saxony).

Nevertheless, it is not a important point, aside from functioning as a convenient buffer to central europe.

What I meant was that a Russia that has Poland is intimately involved with whatever happens in Germany, and by extension must spare attention for all of Germany's neighbors. With a Polish buffer, as you put it, Russia is insulated somewhat from the continent's conflicts.

Perhaps we could get that English steam engine pioneer to move to Russia instead of South America, and if a friend to visit him with a Ferguson rifle....
 
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