AH challenge: Greater Ethiopia

[Hendryk]

Can you think of a realistic POD that could make most of Africa either under direct control by an Ethiopian empire or satellized by it by the late 18th century?
The POD would have to be between the fall of the Western Roman empire and the Renaissance, so that by the time Europe takes an interest in Africa, it faces a relatively stable regional system. Bonus points if you detail how that changes the history of slave-trading (on both sides of the continent), and elaborate on the relationship with the Arab and Ottoman spheres of influence.

 

[Hendryk]

The following map was drawn by Portuguese cartographers in the 16th century. At that point they believed that the Ethiopian empire extended all the way to the Kalahari desert.
I notice maps have a way of firing up people's creativity...

 

[pa_dutch]

Ancient writers noted that the Axumites were very important in early trade along the East African coast (Azania), and that at times they even had control over the region. Perhaps if they become a sea power and manage to keep control over the Swahili trade cities in later times... Maybe if so, their language, or some kind of hybrid of it and Arabic or the Bantu languages, would be the lingua franca of the region rather than Swahili.

 

[DominusNovus]

Ancient writers noted that the Axumites were very important in early trade along the East African coast (Azania), and that at times they even had control over the region. Perhaps if they become a sea power and manage to keep control over the Swahili trade cities in later times... Maybe if so, their language, or some kind of hybrid of it and Arabic or the Bantu languages, would be the lingua franca of the region rather than Swahili.

They used to be a powerful maritime force and controlled much of Arabia. Just have this situation continue, and they're in a good position. So long as they pre-empt Islam.

 

[von Adler]

Well, we need several points of divergence here, I think.

First of all, the Nubians stay christian instead of converting, and being the natural ally of Ethiopia - they will most likely be over-run in the early renaissance and be force-converted, but it will relieve some of the muslim pressure on Ethiopia-

The crusaders take Alexandria and hold it for a hundred years or so - enough time to make contact with the Ethiopians and some cultural exchange to start. I expect the Ehtiopians to have been thrown out of Arabia, but that they will hold the entire horn of Africa, and perhaps southern Nubia and northern Kenya

Lets give the Ethiopians a stable line of Emperors and no Mesa Mesafint (War of the Princes) so that they can keep the Omani settlers out and not have a Sultanate at the shores of the African horn.

When the Portugese make contact in the 16th century and the Ehtiopians are trading down to Zanzibar and perhaps to India as well, and being a christian nation, my guess is that they would ally with them, as they did historically. Firearms and other modern technology, with a decently centralised government, could prop up the Ethiopians.

While I do not expect the Negus to take most of Africa, I expect Ethiopia to be a local power that the western nations will listen to and respect and above all keep their colonial fingers away from, much like Japan after the Meiji restoration or Thailand.

 

[Hendryk]

Here's the Ethiopian empire at the height of its expansion, say in the late 17th century. Now the more remote parts need not necessarily be under direct rule; I suppose petty vassal kingdoms would do. In this TL the status of neighboring polities such as Songhai and Zimbabwe is, of course, a completely open question.

 

[Hermanubis]

It interesting what this would mean to the spread of Christianity in Africa here.

 

[Wendell]

It interesting what this would mean to the spread of Christianity in Africa here.

That's a very good point. Especially Christianity of the Eastern sort, as well as the Islamic faith and even the Crusades.

Why doesn't Ethiopia have all of Madagascar if it gets the North? Is Merina in the South, then?

 

[Flocculencio]

That's a very good point. Especially Christianity of the Eastern sort, as well as the Islamic faith and even the Crusades.

Why doesn't Ethiopia have all of Madagascar if it gets the North? Is Merina in the South, then?

Perhaps this means more prevalent Christianity in S. India? If the Ethiopians are a major trading power, their Orthodox brethren in Kerala are probably going to have a even more influential position in society than they already did (they were landed gentry OTL, probably in TTL including the mercantile castes which OTL were Jews and Muslims)

 

[Wendell]

Perhaps this means more prevalent Christianity in S. India? If the Ethiopians are a major trading power, their Orthodox brethren in Kerala are probably going to have a even more influential position in society than they already did (they were landed gentry OTL, probably in TTL including the mercantile castes which OTL were Jews and Muslims)

Actually, that's an interesting idea too.....

 

[Ran Exilis]

It is, but don't forget that the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is a Monophysite Church, whilst the Malabar Christians were originally Nestorians.

And Nestorians and Monophysites don't mix very well...

 

[Flocculencio]

It is, but don't forget that the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is a Monophysite Church, whilst the Malabar Christians were originally Nestorians.

And Nestorians and Monophysites don't mix very well...

The Malabar Christians generally proved quite amenable to otuside influences. The general practice was for the Church to schism into two factions- one traditionalist and the other accepting the outside influence

 

[Keenir]

First of all, the Nubians stay christian instead of converting, and being the natural ally of Ethiopia - they will most likely be over-run in the early renaissance and be force-converted, but it will relieve some of the muslim pressure on Ethiopia-

I have a feeling that this would replace Muslim Nubian pressure with Christian Nubian pressure on Ethiopia.

(not neccessarily immediately, but still)

 

[Max Sinister]

Although I think an Ethiopia ruling half of Africa (with all those jungles) is ASBish, if they decided to missionarize among the other Africans, and maybe help them to kick out Arab slave traders, they could do a lot to increase Ethiopia's power.

 

[Homer]

Although I think an Ethiopia ruling half of Africa (with all those jungles) is ASBish, if they decided to missionarize among the other Africans, and maybe help them to kick out Arab slave traders, they could do a lot to increase Ethiopia's power.

I agree. They'd still face problems with supply lines and governing - even indirectly - far away territories across jungles and mountains. They could conquer the horn of africa, Nubia, some parts of the sahel maybe up to the niger and along the eastern coast down to Mocambique and Madagaskar.
But would they be able to rule the congo region?

 

[Hendryk]

But would they be able to rule the congo region?

It depends how one defines "rule". For the purpose of the TL, having the same amount of control over those areas as Portugal had over the Amazon Basin in the 18th century would be good enough. Plenty of forest-dwelling cultures might not even be aware that they are technically vassals of an Ethiopian Empire, but every once in a while a group of gold prospectors would lay a claim to this or that area, and in case of violent opposition by the locals could claim assistance from the nearest military outpost. There would also probably be government-supported missionary efforts and other attempts to gradually acculturate the empire's less civilized subjects, a task likely to take a few centuries at least.

 

[JamesFox]

The only thing I can think of is ending Ethiopia's isolation. Although no Jihad was launched against Ethiopia, the rise of Islam isolated Christain Ethiopia and diverted trade, causing the loss of revenue and the decline and fall of Axum.

So: Convert Axum to Islam, or prevent the rise of Islam.

After that, I don't think there is any good probability. Medieval Ethiopia was practically a Dark Ages state, capable of holding together only barely.

 

[Melvin Loh]

Well, the Ethiopians would still face a lot of opposition from the Somalis, wouldn't they ? I mean, with the skinnies being such a proud, ferocious, warlike ppl and all- even in a TL without Islam.

 

[Homer]

It depends how one defines "rule". For the purpose of the TL, having the same amount of control over those areas as Portugal had over the Amazon Basin in the 18th century would be good enough. Plenty of forest-dwelling cultures might not even be aware that they are technically vassals of an Ethiopian Empire, but every once in a while a group of gold prospectors would lay a claim to this or that area, and in case of violent opposition by the locals could claim assistance from the nearest military outpost. There would also probably be government-supported missionary efforts and other attempts to gradually acculturate the empire's less civilized subjects, a task likely to take a few centuries at least.

True. But the Portuguese had one advantage: the Amazonas. They had access to the mouth of the Amazonas and could ship it. ethiopians would have several hundred cilometres until they reach an upper part of the system of rivers in the congo region. Thus their acces to the region could be a lot worse.
I'm not sure, though, since my knowledge about shipping on the congo is not that good...

 

[Tom Veil]

POD: Ethiopian Royal Scientists discover a way to grow teff and enset at lower altitudes, or find a way to grow rice and sorghum in places with lower rainfall.

That does not guarantee a single, united empire, but it would let Ethiopian culture run amok anywhere from Senegal to Botswana. Without an agriculturual innovation, no one -- European, Hamitic, Black, no one -- could hope to have a single culture covering such harsh land.