AH Challenge: Gibraltar Conquered

I'd say that it's common knowledge that Gibraltar was an important base for the Allies, and the British in particular, during WWII. The Rock commanded sea traffic into and out of the western Med, offered a safe and effective harbor for Allied shipping, and helped aid in the defense of Malta.

But WI Gibraltar had come under a true threat, as in a German/Spanish/Italian invasion? Would such an invasion be plausible or is it doomed to failure like our favorite marine mammal? How would such an invasion proceed, and could it have any chance of being successful?
 
I'd say that it's common knowledge that Gibraltar was an important base for the Allies, and the British in particular, during WWII. The Rock commanded sea traffic into and out of the western Med, offered a safe and effective harbor for Allied shipping, and helped aid in the defense of Malta.

But WI Gibraltar had come under a true threat, as in a German/Spanish/Italian invasion? Would such an invasion be plausible or is it doomed to failure like our favorite marine mammal? How would such an invasion proceed, and could it have any chance of being successful?

If Hitler presuaded Franco to join in, or possibly attacked him to get access, it could be done. [The latter option would be highly unlikely and very costly for the Germans but is mentioned for completness]. One of the What If? series mentions a Med operation for Germany with attacks on Gib, Malta and Egypt, all being successful. [The latter may be rather doubtful for reasons of logistics].

However as it also mentions this is not a one sided thing for the Axis. After the civil war Spain is in no state for further conflict of Germany basically gains another economic burden while with so much anti-fascist feeling there probably a continued if fairly low level military ulcer. At the same time, while Gib is a big loss Britain seizes some of the Spanish islands, especially the Canaries. The Med is very much an Axis lake but Britain has even better bases for the war in the Atlantic. As such a net gain for Germany, especially if they can seize Egypt, but not as major as it may look.

Steve
 
Franco was afraid of a British landing along the coast, if only because he was misinformed by pro-British spies. Still, Spain was bled dry from the war, and may not contribute that much.
 
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