AH Challenge: German victory in WWII or a WWII analogue.

I wouldn't say that Germany's economy being 40% larger than Britain's in 1939 makes them broadly comparable. I'd say that Germany should be able to comfortably outproduce Britain in most things.

BTW, I hate getting bogged down in statistical debates, they always make Germany look like a basket case and ignore the punch-in-the-face facts. These facts include that despite an oil shortage in 1940 German armies/uboats managed to have fuel for fighting in 1944. Similarly despite steel shortages before the war German production peaked in 1944. Finance is even worse, I've had experts (who study this shit for a living) tell me that there is no way Germany could finance production increases in 1940-42. When I point out that their production peaked in 1944, and ask if they had more money then I get attempts at being baffled with psuedo-academic bullshit that I just don't believe. These statistical experts also ignore the massive economic problems faced by Briain and the SU, and see that Germany's problems may be actually less than it's enemies.

It's not about absolute production, it's about what proportion they are spending. And of course the Germans did outproduce the British in numerous areas in that period.

Well in 1944 the Germans occupied all of Europe and were massively exploiting its resources. Only recently has progress made in really understanding the full extent of this. Without occupied Europe the simple fact is that Germany's production would be much, much smaller in the 41-42 period. Exploitation, as well as gains made in rationalisation as managers became more experienced, account for the production increase. Also a lot of 4 year plan investment comes online in 1942, bringing a lot of fresh plant that can be sweated hard.

The 1944 German war economy is unsustainable - the example someone came up with is the use of fertilisers for explosives, but that was the tip of the iceberg. If Germany had not lost in 1945 she would have collapsed after OTL 1944. She had too many men under arms and too many working in weapons production and not enough labour in the other sectors of the economy, this is impossible to keep up -infrastructure starts to collapse.
 
The 1944 German war economy is unsustainable - the example someone came up with is the use of fertilisers for explosives, but that was the tip of the iceberg. If Germany had not lost in 1945 she would have collapsed after OTL 1944. She had too many men under arms and too many working in weapons production and not enough labour in the other sectors of the economy, this is impossible to keep up -infrastructure starts to collapse.

While this is certainly true, there is the question of how quickly a collapse shall occur. A total war economy cannot function indefinately, resources are consumed at a faster rate than they can be secured. Despite this I don't think this collapse would be a quick event.

It seems more likely that production would just decline, the standard of living would drop and so on. There wouldn't be some great crash and the entire German economy suddenly ceases to function. Germany is doomed since a similar drop of production shall not occur for her opponents, but if the Reich was not invaded (but a similar proportion was spent on arms) I doubt it would have properly collapsed untill atleast 1948, possibly 1950.

This is quite different to Japan, whose economy was toast and certainly would have been incapable of continued fighting after the winter of 1945.
 
If Germany managed to peak in 1941 and plateau after that by the time it had to stop the SU would have been defeated.
 
I don't know if this leader could get support of Jews, even if he said in private that he bullshitting everybody. But otherwise, I like it alot. How does he come to power/handle the economic problems? Where does he go from there towards his plans?

Heh. There was support of Jews for Hitler in OTL. They told each other he was just using anti-Semitism as a tool to gain support and wouldn't bother them once in power. Never underestimate the power of self-deception.
 
While this is certainly true, there is the question of how quickly a collapse shall occur. A total war economy cannot function indefinately, resources are consumed at a faster rate than they can be secured. Despite this I don't think this collapse would be a quick event.

It seems more likely that production would just decline, the standard of living would drop and so on. There wouldn't be some great crash and the entire German economy suddenly ceases to function. Germany is doomed since a similar drop of production shall not occur for her opponents, but if the Reich was not invaded (but a similar proportion was spent on arms) I doubt it would have properly collapsed untill atleast 1948, possibly 1950.

This is quite different to Japan, whose economy was toast and certainly would have been incapable of continued fighting after the winter of 1945.

It all goes to show you...the only thing Hitler really planned for was a War, and he didn't plan for that all too well...
 
Baumer's Nazi Party has a much broader appeal than Hitler's, and until the economic boom of the late twenties seems poised to achieve a full majority in the national government without the support of other parties. It's this late prosperity that convinces Baumer to seriously start planning for the possibility of a coup or other rise to power by less-than-legal means. He doesn't get a chance to put it into motion, though. In 1929 the stock market crashes, and extremist groups everywhere get a fresh breath of life. It is January of 1931 when the Nazi Party achieves an outright majority in the Reichstag, and Paul Baumer becomes Chancellor.

The Communists and Social-Democrats are immediately banned, and gentle but firm pressure put on the remaining center and right groups for the "divisiveness" of their continuing existence. Germany gradually begins rearmament, though much more slowly than in OTL. Instead, Baumer's interest is in super weapons. Almost his first act is to authorize investigation into the use of new technologies, including rockets, jet aircraft, hovercraft, helicopters, chemical weapons, radiation weapons, and new versions of conventional tech. While most of the efforts come to little immediate effect, it is in late 1931 that Germany begins serious efforts to create an atomic bomb. A fair amount of funding goes to education, with a focus overwhelmingly on physics (to be fair, next in line are eugenics and "the history of Aryan Civilization").

A lot of the early part of his rule is spent making a circuit of European capitals trying to end Germany's diplomatic isolation. This Nazi Germany gives off a lot fewer aggressive vibes, and Baumer is able to set up a series of useful trade agreements to help with his various pet projects and limit the inevitable tensions with France. It's the latter that pays off in 1935, the year the Saar region is returned to German control. That same year sees an agreement that ends the French occupation of the Rhineland and allows remilitarization of the eastern bank.

Anschluss follows a year later. The annexation of Austria is pulled off in a much more reputable-seeming manner than in OTL. The Austrian government is forced into a corner and agrees to a plebiscite. The offer is special self-governing status as a state of the Reich. Vocal opponents of the measure find themselves and their families suddenly under the threat of violence from Hitler's Austrian National Socialist German Workers Party. The end result is a convincing yes vote. Possibly too convincing, but who's to complain? Flush with the Austrian cash reserve, Germany begins rearmament in earnest, three years behind our TL.

The regime next sets its sights on Poland. [This was actually the area - not the Sudetenland - that the Germans were most interested in after Austria, but Hitler wasn't one to follow opinion polls, now was he?] Baumer goes to great lengths to stress the reasonable nature of Germany's claims, and eventually a peace conference to discuss the issue is arranged by the expedient of the British leaning on the French, who in turn pressure the Poles. Unfortunately, it is doomed before it even begins. When it comes to terms, the Germans will accept nothing short of Danzig and the Corridor, while the Poles refuse to turn over anything but Danzig. They're only willing to go that far because it isn't technically their own territory (memories of partition will do that to you). The result is that Poland goes it alone and in mid 1938 (to the horror of the West) war breaks out with Germany.

Baumer plays his hand well. Rather than rushing headlong to Warsaw, the Germans merely grind through the Poles in the corridor and push the Poles well back from the disputed areas. Despite diplomatic support from Czechoslovakia, the treaty gives the corridor to Germany. The treaty is recast as an effort to set the region to order and returns Vilnius to Lithuania, which in turn cedes Memel to Germany. Perhaps the greatest triumph of the war is Baumer's success in portraying the Poles as being at least as responsible as himself.

Abroad, Baumer applauds the result and the rapid return of peace, speaking hopefully about the future of Europe. At the same time within Germany, Gobbels propaganda machine is emphasizing Poland's control of Posen and Upper Silesia. Britain and France are portrayed as turning on Germany at the peace table yet again.

The war and 1938 end with the birth of two new alliances. Threatened by German resurgence, Czechoslovakia and Poland line up and begin coordinating their military efforts. Among other things, this means more and better tanks for Poland. Meanwhile, Lithuania concludes a strong defensive pact with Germany. Limited German forces are to be based in the country, and begin training Lithuania's small military.

Nineteen thirty eight is also notable as the year when German researchers forecast that by 1941 Germany will be able to produce a nuclear weapon.
 
Different Idea: The Red Menace.

Suppose that the Soviets handedly defeated Poland in the Polish-Soviet War of the 1920s. As Poland is forcibly reintegrated into the Soviet Sphere of Influence, Reds continue to gain across Europe. In Hungary, Bela Kun emerges as a communist leader--a situation that is loudly supported by the Soviet Union and therefore likely to prevail.

The Treaty of Versaillies had greatly weakened Germany, and the 1923 occupation of the Rhineland threatened to push the Republic into the Communist Camp. KPD leader Ernst Thallmann spoke of a New Order--and was a rising star, not least of all because the General Secretary of the Soviet Union--Leon Trotsky--was loudly seeking a world revolution.

By 1926, the Weimar Republic was failing. The Continued Occupation of the Rhineland had led to German Hyperinflation and Strong Gains of the KPD. At this point, the Western Allies were forced to see the writing on the wall--that the huge push for reparations were very likely to create a second communist power. And in Moscow, Leon Trotsky was doing all he could to get exactly that.

Including Staging a Coup.

With the Red Army Massing on the German Border, Trotsky made a deal with Thalmann--lead the revolution and the Red Army will pave the way. This was the Allies Worst Nightmare--but thanks to their previous abuses against Germany, there was little they could do to Support the failing German State. They certainly would not throw their own armies to support German Democracy, although they would respond with the harshest words they could.

There was considerable resistance to the Communist Coup. Much of the Army rallied under Von Hindenburg's exhortations to defend the Fatherland. In Bavaria, the National Socialists under Ernst Rohm would attempt to fight the Communist Uprising. But these efforts were doomed. Thanks to the artifically small size of their army and the large amounts of Germany that simple fell without a fight, the defeat of the Weimar Republic was a matter of time--and of months, not years. On May 1st, 1927, Ernst Thallmann celebrated May Day with special importance--the last pockets of German Resistance in the German Alps had surrendered. And there would be sensational show trials to follow--Paul Von Hindenburg was sentenced to death but this was commuted to Life imprisionment. Adolf Hitler and Ernst Rohm were executed, as were many of the ringleaders of the Reichswehr that had attempted to resist the Coup.

The Western World could only gape in amazement at the rising power of the political left. But the worst blow would be soon to come. On June 16th, 1929, the US Stock Market crashed. For the past four years, it had been pumped up by poorly financed credit and purchases on Margins. But Consumer confidence had simply faded--and in three weeks, the stock market lost half of its value.

Three Years Later, Western Democracies were failing. Maurice Thorez of France had been approached much the same way as Thalmann had six years before, and with similar results, except that now it was Thalmann who would be doing the supporting. With the German Worker's Liberation Army now a battletested force with the support of the Red Army in its wings, Germany was out to repeat the same strategy to France that the Soviets had done to Germany.

The United Kingdom, suffering from the Depression, could only sit and watch as the French Communists overthrew Pierre Laval, but this time there would be no Civil War. The Third Republic had already bled its own dry from the first world war, and while there was some resistance to the takeover, it was little more than elements of the French Right fleeing to other countries, such as Italy and the UK.

With France a Communist Ally, much of Europe was pressured into the Communist Camp--President Benes of Czechloslovkia was outright bullied into offering army bases for the Worker Liberation Army, and Romania would fall into the hands of the Soviets.

Italy and Spain found themselves allying against the rising red tide, and bringing Greece, Austria and Yugoslavia on board as well. The United Kingdom had been marginalized in Europe not by a state but an ideology, and Italy now appeared to be the great bastion against Communism.

This Tension built for a full Decade. Spain quashed a Republician Coup attempt and the Kind remained in control, even though the attempt needed Italian troops to put down the rebellion. Engelbart Dolfuss of Austria was murdered by Communist Radicals, but Italy's military posturing ensured that Kurt Schussnigg would be his successor.

Finally, there would be a flashpoint: 1938. The Death of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in Turkey left the job to Ismet Inonu, but the position of Turkey was crucial in world politics. Inonu would grudgingly choose the communists--on a deal that would guarantee Soviet Access through the Bosporus and would guarentee the Eastern Borders of the Country. Seeing the opportunity, the Communists would push into Bulgaria in the attempt to control the Black Sea entirely. This move would be resisted by Greece, who quickly deployed elements of their army into Sofia and attempted to hold out against the Romanian-Soviet Attack.

And this flashpoint would eventually signal the end of a cold war between Fascists and Communists. The German Worker's Liberation Army would smash right into Austria, fighting Austria and Italy through the Alps. France would also join the fighting, it also smashing into Italian Alps.

It would be a long, drawn out war, a war fought without the awesome Panzer doctrine of OTL. But the Fascists would be beaten in a circle. First Bulgaria would fall, followed by Austria. Yugoslavia and Greece would put up a hard fight, but they would also fall. It would be Spain and Italy that would very difficult to crack. But Five Years of War would eventually crack even these nations. Italy had been forced back to the Po River through heavy fighting, but the German Campaign of 1943 would smash the Messe Line and lead to the quick fall of Rome and Italy's surrender. In Spain, a similar situation arose on the outskirts of Madrid--the Spanish built solid defensive lines, but once these were broken the nation could not survive in the face of numerical and technical superiority.

In light of these events, It seems obvious that the creation of the Anglo-American Alliance, and their successful effort to include Japan in their arrangements would be in the cards. It would be on this basis that the Allies would unite against Communism. But the development of the Atomic Bomb in 1952, followed by the H Bomb in 1960, would indicate that this would be an ideological war without all-out fighting. And the fall of Communism, although a miracle when it began with the Polish Uprising of 1998, was based ultimately on the failure of nations to meet their own people's needs. When Ernst Thalmann died in 1964, he was celebrated as a hero, just as Leon Trotsky had been three years earlier. But the people who followed weren't heroes--they were corrupt exploiters who did nothing as their own economic situations stagnated and began to fall. Their legacy remains heavy on the world today, with endless numbers of starving French Children and millions of immigrants from various German States and Eastern Europe.

To some degree, its an open question what victory Thalmann won. Ideological Hedgemony to be sure, but in the end it didn't work out that way.
 
Baumer's Nazi Party has a much broader appeal than Hitler's, and until the economic boom of the late twenties seems poised to achieve a full majority in the national government without the support of other parties. It's this late prosperity that convinces Baumer to seriously start planning for the possibility of a coup or other rise to power by less-than-legal means. He doesn't get a chance to put it into motion, though. In 1929 the stock market crashes, and extremist groups everywhere get a fresh breath of life. It is January of 1931 when the Nazi Party achieves an outright majority in the Reichstag, and Paul Baumer becomes Chancellor.

The Communists and Social-Democrats are immediately banned, and gentle but firm pressure put on the remaining center and right groups for the "divisiveness" of their continuing existence. Germany gradually begins rearmament, though much more slowly than in OTL. Instead, Baumer's interest is in super weapons. Almost his first act is to authorize investigation into the use of new technologies, including rockets, jet aircraft, hovercraft, helicopters, chemical weapons, radiation weapons, and new versions of conventional tech. While most of the efforts come to little immediate effect, it is in late 1931 that Germany begins serious efforts to create an atomic bomb. A fair amount of funding goes to education, with a focus overwhelmingly on physics (to be fair, next in line are eugenics and "the history of Aryan Civilization").

A lot of the early part of his rule is spent making a circuit of European capitals trying to end Germany's diplomatic isolation. This Nazi Germany gives off a lot fewer aggressive vibes, and Baumer is able to set up a series of useful trade agreements to help with his various pet projects and limit the inevitable tensions with France. It's the latter that pays off in 1935, the year the Saar region is returned to German control. That same year sees an agreement that ends the French occupation of the Rhineland and allows remilitarization of the eastern bank.

Anschluss follows a year later. The annexation of Austria is pulled off in a much more reputable-seeming manner than in OTL. The Austrian government is forced into a corner and agrees to a plebiscite. The offer is special self-governing status as a state of the Reich. Vocal opponents of the measure find themselves and their families suddenly under the threat of violence from Hitler's Austrian National Socialist German Workers Party. The end result is a convincing yes vote. Possibly too convincing, but who's to complain? Flush with the Austrian cash reserve, Germany begins rearmament in earnest, three years behind our TL.

The regime next sets its sights on Poland. [This was actually the area - not the Sudetenland - that the Germans were most interested in after Austria, but Hitler wasn't one to follow opinion polls, now was he?] Baumer goes to great lengths to stress the reasonable nature of Germany's claims, and eventually a peace conference to discuss the issue is arranged by the expedient of the British leaning on the French, who in turn pressure the Poles. Unfortunately, it is doomed before it even begins. When it comes to terms, the Germans will accept nothing short of Danzig and the Corridor, while the Poles refuse to turn over anything but Danzig. They're only willing to go that far because it isn't technically their own territory (memories of partition will do that to you). The result is that Poland goes it alone and in mid 1938 (to the horror of the West) war breaks out with Germany.

Baumer plays his hand well. Rather than rushing headlong to Warsaw, the Germans merely grind through the Poles in the corridor and push the Poles well back from the disputed areas. Despite diplomatic support from Czechoslovakia, the treaty gives the corridor to Germany. The treaty is recast as an effort to set the region to order and returns Vilnius to Lithuania, which in turn cedes Memel to Germany. Perhaps the greatest triumph of the war is Baumer's success in portraying the Poles as being at least as responsible as himself.

Abroad, Baumer applauds the result and the rapid return of peace, speaking hopefully about the future of Europe. At the same time within Germany, Gobbels propaganda machine is emphasizing Poland's control of Posen and Upper Silesia. Britain and France are portrayed as turning on Germany at the peace table yet again.

The war and 1938 end with the birth of two new alliances. Threatened by German resurgence, Czechoslovakia and Poland line up and begin coordinating their military efforts. Among other things, this means more and better tanks for Poland. Meanwhile, Lithuania concludes a strong defensive pact with Germany. Limited German forces are to be based in the country, and begin training Lithuania's small military.

Nineteen thirty eight is also notable as the year when German researchers forecast that by 1941 Germany will be able to produce a nuclear weapon.

Love it. I'm sure there are numerous problems and technicalities to be met with, but it looks VERY interesting. Keep going!
 
Different Idea: The Red Menace.

Suppose that the Soviets handedly defeated Poland in the Polish-Soviet War of the 1920s. As Poland is forcibly reintegrated into the Soviet Sphere of Influence, Reds continue to gain across Europe. In Hungary, Bela Kun emerges as a communist leader--a situation that is loudly supported by the Soviet Union and therefore likely to prevail.

The Treaty of Versaillies had greatly weakened Germany, and the 1923 occupation of the Rhineland threatened to push the Republic into the Communist Camp. KPD leader Ernst Thallmann spoke of a New Order--and was a rising star, not least of all because the General Secretary of the Soviet Union--Leon Trotsky--was loudly seeking a world revolution.

By 1926, the Weimar Republic was failing. The Continued Occupation of the Rhineland had led to German Hyperinflation and Strong Gains of the KPD. At this point, the Western Allies were forced to see the writing on the wall--that the huge push for reparations were very likely to create a second communist power. And in Moscow, Leon Trotsky was doing all he could to get exactly that.

Including Staging a Coup.

With the Red Army Massing on the German Border, Trotsky made a deal with Thalmann--lead the revolution and the Red Army will pave the way. This was the Allies Worst Nightmare--but thanks to their previous abuses against Germany, there was little they could do to Support the failing German State. They certainly would not throw their own armies to support German Democracy, although they would respond with the harshest words they could.

There was considerable resistance to the Communist Coup. Much of the Army rallied under Von Hindenburg's exhortations to defend the Fatherland. In Bavaria, the National Socialists under Ernst Rohm would attempt to fight the Communist Uprising. But these efforts were doomed. Thanks to the artifically small size of their army and the large amounts of Germany that simple fell without a fight, the defeat of the Weimar Republic was a matter of time--and of months, not years. On May 1st, 1927, Ernst Thallmann celebrated May Day with special importance--the last pockets of German Resistance in the German Alps had surrendered. And there would be sensational show trials to follow--Paul Von Hindenburg was sentenced to death but this was commuted to Life imprisionment. Adolf Hitler and Ernst Rohm were executed, as were many of the ringleaders of the Reichswehr that had attempted to resist the Coup.

The Western World could only gape in amazement at the rising power of the political left. But the worst blow would be soon to come. On June 16th, 1929, the US Stock Market crashed. For the past four years, it had been pumped up by poorly financed credit and purchases on Margins. But Consumer confidence had simply faded--and in three weeks, the stock market lost half of its value.

Three Years Later, Western Democracies were failing. Maurice Thorez of France had been approached much the same way as Thalmann had six years before, and with similar results, except that now it was Thalmann who would be doing the supporting. With the German Worker's Liberation Army now a battletested force with the support of the Red Army in its wings, Germany was out to repeat the same strategy to France that the Soviets had done to Germany.

The United Kingdom, suffering from the Depression, could only sit and watch as the French Communists overthrew Pierre Laval, but this time there would be no Civil War. The Third Republic had already bled its own dry from the first world war, and while there was some resistance to the takeover, it was little more than elements of the French Right fleeing to other countries, such as Italy and the UK.

With France a Communist Ally, much of Europe was pressured into the Communist Camp--President Benes of Czechloslovkia was outright bullied into offering army bases for the Worker Liberation Army, and Romania would fall into the hands of the Soviets.

Italy and Spain found themselves allying against the rising red tide, and bringing Greece, Austria and Yugoslavia on board as well. The United Kingdom had been marginalized in Europe not by a state but an ideology, and Italy now appeared to be the great bastion against Communism.

This Tension built for a full Decade. Spain quashed a Republician Coup attempt and the Kind remained in control, even though the attempt needed Italian troops to put down the rebellion. Engelbart Dolfuss of Austria was murdered by Communist Radicals, but Italy's military posturing ensured that Kurt Schussnigg would be his successor.

Finally, there would be a flashpoint: 1938. The Death of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in Turkey left the job to Ismet Inonu, but the position of Turkey was crucial in world politics. Inonu would grudgingly choose the communists--on a deal that would guarantee Soviet Access through the Bosporus and would guarentee the Eastern Borders of the Country. Seeing the opportunity, the Communists would push into Bulgaria in the attempt to control the Black Sea entirely. This move would be resisted by Greece, who quickly deployed elements of their army into Sofia and attempted to hold out against the Romanian-Soviet Attack.

And this flashpoint would eventually signal the end of a cold war between Fascists and Communists. The German Worker's Liberation Army would smash right into Austria, fighting Austria and Italy through the Alps. France would also join the fighting, it also smashing into Italian Alps.

It would be a long, drawn out war, a war fought without the awesome Panzer doctrine of OTL. But the Fascists would be beaten in a circle. First Bulgaria would fall, followed by Austria. Yugoslavia and Greece would put up a hard fight, but they would also fall. It would be Spain and Italy that would very difficult to crack. But Five Years of War would eventually crack even these nations. Italy had been forced back to the Po River through heavy fighting, but the German Campaign of 1943 would smash the Messe Line and lead to the quick fall of Rome and Italy's surrender. In Spain, a similar situation arose on the outskirts of Madrid--the Spanish built solid defensive lines, but once these were broken the nation could not survive in the face of numerical and technical superiority.

In light of these events, It seems obvious that the creation of the Anglo-American Alliance, and their successful effort to include Japan in their arrangements would be in the cards. It would be on this basis that the Allies would unite against Communism. But the development of the Atomic Bomb in 1952, followed by the H Bomb in 1960, would indicate that this would be an ideological war without all-out fighting. And the fall of Communism, although a miracle when it began with the Polish Uprising of 1998, was based ultimately on the failure of nations to meet their own people's needs. When Ernst Thalmann died in 1964, he was celebrated as a hero, just as Leon Trotsky had been three years earlier. But the people who followed weren't heroes--they were corrupt exploiters who did nothing as their own economic situations stagnated and began to fall. Their legacy remains heavy on the world today, with endless numbers of starving French Children and millions of immigrants from various German States and Eastern Europe.

To some degree, its an open question what victory Thalmann won. Ideological Hedgemony to be sure, but in the end it didn't work out that way.

Neato. Sucks to be Europe ITTL ;)
 
Timeline (Cut)


The Main Problems I see with this are:

The Soviet Union isn't really mentioned. If Stalin is running the country, he's going to be resentful of any move into the Baltic States, so German probably has to some kind of understand with him (and that's not just a nice friendly request either, Stalin's paranoid and is going to be out to secure his borders). Stalin might also react in a favorable way as well--by going after Poland. It's important to recognize that Stalin actually respected and liked Hitler before Barbarossa--this kind of relationship would probably not work with Kanzler Baumer.

A German A-Bomb in 1941 would be very difficult, if at all possible. It MIGHT be feasible if Germany starts on it right away, but I'm unsure that it would could begin in this kind of fashion. In any case, figure that this is a massive government project that would require massive spending. Not that Germany doesn't have the scientists to pull it off, but its probably going to be more expensive and difficult than OTL because Germany is going to be hurting for computers.

Now its interesting that Germany has been able to outmaneuver the Poles diplomatically. I'd like to point out, though, that a second war would be against them would be a mistake, and likely to result in Allied Condemnation. Perhaps worse, this could trigger a general rearmament of both countries. ITTL, the UK and France might be scared into turning their industries up a notch.

Italy in OTL thwarted a German conquest of Austria in 1934. Why didn't they do it in 1936? Perhaps Italy got a piece of the pie somehow. One thing to consider, Baumer is likely to push Mussolini towards the Allies. There is good cause of Germany to be grumpy with Italy (South Tirol), but WW2 is going to be a different ball of wax if Mussolini throws his lot in with the Allies.

Finally, If Germany had a slower buildup than OTL, and they are spending much of their money on superweapons, wouldn't their army be considerably weaker than OTL? The real question is how well do they have to garrison their borders--A grumpy Italy in the south, A long border with a scared Czechloslovkia, a short border with Hungary (which might not exactly be friendly either ITTL--they would also have been upset with Austria). In OTL, Germany outmatched Poland by a very strong margin--ITTL, things would be much closer.
 
The Main Problems I see with this are:

The Soviet Union isn't really mentioned. If Stalin is running the country, he's going to be resentful of any move into the Baltic States, so German probably has to some kind of understand with him (and that's not just a nice friendly request either, Stalin's paranoid and is going to be out to secure his borders). Stalin might also react in a favorable way as well--by going after Poland. It's important to recognize that Stalin actually respected and liked Hitler before Barbarossa--this kind of relationship would probably not work with Kanzler Baumer.

Oh Stalin is very paranoid by this point. Unfortunately, all he can do is what he did in OTL - shift the economy en masse to a war footing, crank out the divisions, and desperately appeal to the West for a united front. That latter is even harder in this scenario, because the West likes Baumer, and he hasn't done anything too shady yet. Your concerns misconstrue the events though. In OTL the original Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact assigned Lithuania to the German sphere of influence. Obviously Stalin would rather Germans' influence be as far away as possible, ideally somewhere west of the Atlantic, but it isn't his nightmare scenario. The Soviets did not see themselves as having some sort of implicit right to the Baltics; Stalin just spread Socialism whenever he got his chance.

And I strongly disagree that Stalin would consider jumping Poland at this stage. The West saw Hitler as much less of a threat than Russia up until they went to war with the man. That hasn't changed any here. More to the point, Stalin is very conscious of the fact. Stalin didn't dare invade a single country until Germany, France, and Britain were commited to war with each other. The man was terrified to make a move, and justifiably so.

As to his relationship with Hitler.... Find me one nice thing Stalin said about the man before the Pact and I'll reconsider. It's pretty natural to say nice things about the man who saves your country, and Stalin thought Hitler had done just that: put Russia in an unassailable position and removed the risk of invasion. If irony were strawberries, we'd all be having fruit smoothies.

A German A-Bomb in 1941 would be very difficult, if at all possible. It MIGHT be feasible if Germany starts on it right away, but I'm unsure that it would could begin in this kind of fashion. In any case, figure that this is a massive government project that would require massive spending. Not that Germany doesn't have the scientists to pull it off, but its probably going to be more expensive and difficult than OTL because Germany is going to be hurting for computers.

Note that I didn't say Germany had the bomb that year, just that it was so predicted. :)

Now its interesting that Germany has been able to outmaneuver the Poles diplomatically. I'd like to point out, though, that a second war would be against them would be a mistake, and likely to result in Allied Condemnation. Perhaps worse, this could trigger a general rearmament of both countries. ITTL, the UK and France might be scared into turning their industries up a notch.

Agreed. He no doubt plans to go after the rest of Poland eventually, but when it happens a general European war won't be far behind. That said, Britain and France are rearming. To a certain extent it's solely pragmatic - if the Germans' army gets bigger, everyone else follows suit. A nice guy in Berlin doesn't completely change that. On the other hand, by rearming late, Germany is putting itself in a very advantageous position in terms of technical quality. When the tanks and planes do start production they are a couple steps ahead of where they were in OTL. The trap of spending large amounts on equipment that will be out of date when it's needed is largely avoided. See Italy for the extreme version of this.

Italy in OTL thwarted a German conquest of Austria in 1934. Why didn't they do it in 1936? Perhaps Italy got a piece of the pie somehow. One thing to consider, Baumer is likely to push Mussolini towards the Allies. There is good cause of Germany to be grumpy with Italy (South Tirol), but WW2 is going to be a different ball of wax if Mussolini throws his lot in with the Allies.

Oh, right. The other Fascists. I always forget something or other.

The Italians thwarted a unilateral attempt to invade and annex Austria. In this timeline, the move is a diplomatic coup. It only occurs after the British, and through them the French have agreed to support it. Baumer works his charm on Mussolini as well, but in reality Italy is not in a position to stop him. Benito has to console himself with the Germans' diplomatic support for the Ethiopian invasion; Baumer actually speaks in his defence in the League of Nations (yes, he's still in it).

The Spanish Civil War takes a few weeks longer to reach the same conclusion. Germany send more observers than support, and eventually even Italy makes some cut-backs once it's clear their side will win. The Italians are still rather isolated diplomatically, and what credibility they have comes from the support of their "more reasonable" northern neighbors. They could end up on the Allied side, theoretically. It'd just take a serious German screw up.

Finally, If Germany had a slower buildup than OTL, and they are spending much of their money on superweapons, wouldn't their army be considerably weaker than OTL? The real question is how well do they have to garrison their borders--A grumpy Italy in the south, A long border with a scared Czechloslovkia, a short border with Hungary (which might not exactly be friendly either ITTL--they would also have been upset with Austria). In OTL, Germany outmatched Poland by a very strong margin--ITTL, things would be much closer.

Oh yes, the army is a bit smaller, and notably less well equipped at this stage. That's changing rapidly as the new war-ish economy ramps up, but it's a good point. Italy is very annoyed, the French and British are slowly rearming, and the Czechs and Poles are aligning. It all makes for good "they're out to get us" propaganda. Still, the Italians wouldn't enter a war alone, and the West Slavs (?) are more interested in defense in the short term. Though I'm sure they'd jump on Germany's back if it got involved in a serious losing war. Hungary is uncomfortable, but Hungary is also revanchist. Germany is nearly essential if the Hungarians are to make good any of their territorial claims, and they know it. A strong Germany just improves the situation.
 
Hmm. Looks like you have some pretty good answers to these concerns. :D

That said, think a little more on some of these things.

If Czechoslovakia and Poland are moving together, and Stalin wants a secured border, would Poland and the Soviets be able to work together? In this case, Stalin would probably ask for transit rights from Poland--and remember that Poland lost a war ITTL, they might accept a limited request. If Stalin thinks of doing it that way. OTL, the Soviets might have had Romanian Help in reaching the front lines anyhow.

Stalins view of Hitler was positive even before the R-M pact, according to Niall Ferguson's War of the World, Stalin admired Hitlers purge of the SA as something that Stalin would have done. It's a odd bonding that Baumer would probably not enjoy.

Baumer actually needs to address a real issue with Italy--the South Tirol area, which was largely seen as German. OTL, Germany swallowed this claim in exchange for the friendship and eventual alliance with Italy. Far from 'a mistake', Germany actually needs to concede this and do more to keep Italy on board--indeed, I thought Italy was expelled from the League over Ethiopia? It's important to note that the Allied-Italy relationship is going to be a critical development, and it really not so unlikely that Italy winds up in the Allied Camp.

If the Spanish Civil War receives very little German support, wouldn't the Republicans/Socialists be much more likely to win? Indeed, what would the consequences of a pro-soviet Spain be?

Finally, sorry to be so blunt but war never just "breaks out". And while Germany might stage an 'incident' I think that they are going to be revealed as the aggressors, particularly if there still is a Poland that can prove its case. Anyhow, I'd like to know--what does the world know about the incident? You've claimed that it seems like an even split, but one side had to have an order to attack the other. OTOH, if Poland "jumps the gun" that will really hurt their cause. Please elaborate on the actual shooting war itself--I think it would be critical to examine.
 
Stalingrad breakthrough

October 1942. Hitler is under pressure to end the battle of Stalingrad. Winter is approaching, and the army is apprehensive about winter. So he uses sarin to destroy the resistance in the city.
 
October 1942. Hitler is under pressure to end the battle of Stalingrad. Winter is approaching, and the army is apprehensive about winter. So he uses sarin to destroy the resistance in the city.

Doesn't really do the job. The Red Army ultimately crushes Stalingrad through external pinchers. Sarin Gas might give the Germans a short term advantage in this battle, to be sure, but how important was Stalingrad? It would not fix Germany's failing fortunes in the deep Caucasus, and of course what this would mean is that Chemical weapons are going to proliferate throughout WW2.

Now that might put the Red Army off balance for a month, but 1942 isn't going to kill the Rodina even if Stalingrad falls--indeed, the German push south is a strategic blunder that can't easily be recovered from.

Finally, the critical ramifications is the use of chemical weapons combined with bombing civilian targets. This is a trade off that really favors the Allies, who would really be choking the life out of German cities. Sorry, but Chemical Weapons aren't going to do it for the Germans.
 
The initial phases of German nuclear weapons research went very smoothly. As is natural in such things, there were unnumbered mistakes and false paths; there were dead ends; simple solutions were missed until harder ones had already been put in motion. To put it in other words, it was science in practice.

Germany did have advantages. First and foremost was the greatest concentration of trained minds on the planet. The nation even benefited from the mess southeastern Europe had become - two prominent members of the research group were immigrants from less safe states. The fact that many of them were Jewish was a thorn in the side of the Nazi party, and no doubt without Baumer's explicit protection anti-Semitic language would have been translated into action much earlier.

By being the first nation in the world to begin research, Germany had the advantage that noone else was bothering to hide the results of their research. Nor was it difficult to acquire abroad anything that might speed or ease the project - they were simply not things of value. The computing equipment that would have been ideal was naturally an exception - its main use in code-breaking taken very seriously around the world. What was eventually used along those lines was made to order in the United States.

When viewed from OTL, the biggest difference between the American and German efforts is simple: America was engaging in total war while running the project, Germany was at peace. That makes a world of difference. Germany at war could never have afforded to pour the necessary time and money into such a project - it would have drained them dry. At peace it merely meant rearmament efforts had to be taken slowly. The only real casualty of the conflict was Germany's navy. Baumer saw Germany's future on the continent and considered the threat of the Royal and French navies combined insurmountable. More to the point, he thought battleships were old-fashioned (There's that technophilia again).

Baumerite Germany's education policies also paid off after the first half decade or so. Initially it was not so much a matter of training geniuses as it was of diverting them from other fields into physics, engineering, and electrical sciences. This aided tremendously in maintaining Germany's technological lead on much of the world, and several such young men did end up in the Mjolnir Project, as it was called. Among these was the young Ernst Birkholz, who would go on to be (at least so far as history is concerned) the inventor of the fusion bomb....

With the amount of money and effort going into Mjolnir it was inevitable that the rest of Europe would become aware of its existence in one form or another. The lingering uneasiness of Germany's Jewish population didn't help matters, as a steady trickle went abroad on holiday and never came back. What is most surprising is how few, even within the German government, grasped the implications of the thing. The only people who really believed it would change the nature of war were extreme technophiles, a smattering of the scientists working on the thing, and the people running various air forces (strangely, they seemed to think it was proof that their branches should be given more money :rolleyes:).

Atomic Weapons Research dates:
1931 - Germany
1936 - United Kingdom
1937 - France and Russia
1941 - United States
1942 - Italy and Japan

As the feasibility of Mjolnir became more certain and its significance began to sink in for the German high command, more and more concern was placed on finding the materials that would be necessary. Interest in particular developed in the substantial veins of Uranium to be found in Czechoslovakia. Unfortunately, the combination of that country with Poland was steadily becoming a more formidable threat. Neither country was truly weak in and of itself, and both had natural advantages in a war of defense - Poland by its depth and Czechoslovakia by its terrain. Germany would certainly win a war eventually, but that was only assuming no other power became involved.

And so it was that in late 1939 Baumer began arrangements for yet another diplomatic conference of European Powers. This one would answer the question of the benighted German inhabitants of Czechoslovakia. It would be held in Munich.
 
Hmm. Looks like you have some pretty good answers to these concerns. :D

That said, think a little more on some of these things.

Thanks. As you say.

If Czechoslovakia and Poland are moving together, and Stalin wants a secured border, would Poland and the Soviets be able to work together? In this case, Stalin would probably ask for transit rights from Poland--and remember that Poland lost a war ITTL, they might accept a limited request. If Stalin thinks of doing it that way. OTL, the Soviets might have had Romanian Help in reaching the front lines anyhow.

Hrm.... I really doubt they would. Too much bad blood, and what do you do when you no longer need help and want the Russian soldiers to leave your soil? Stamp your feet and pout?

Stalins view of Hitler was positive even before the R-M pact, according to Niall Ferguson's War of the World, Stalin admired Hitlers purge of the SA as something that Stalin would have done. It's a odd bonding that Baumer would probably not enjoy.

Hrm.... Interesting. If I'm remembering correctly, Niall is no fool. Still, I don't see it as a tremendous obstacle to a later Pact being formed, and that's the key thing. Honestly, Russia desperately needed some sort of arrangement for security, and that hasn't changed in this timeline. They were ready to grasp at even rather risky ones.

Baumer actually needs to address a real issue with Italy--the South Tirol area, which was largely seen as German. OTL, Germany swallowed this claim in exchange for the friendship and eventual alliance with Italy. Far from 'a mistake', Germany actually needs to concede this and do more to keep Italy on board--indeed, I thought Italy was expelled from the League over Ethiopia? It's important to note that the Allied-Italy relationship is going to be a critical development, and it really not so unlikely that Italy winds up in the Allied Camp.

Baumer is no less pragmatic than Adolf Hitler. He's not terribly interested in alienating potential allies over little patches of empty mountain range. Italy's relationship with Germany has less to do with Germany than with the other powers of Europe. Italy made a pariah of itself with its invasion of Ethiopia. There was even a lot of largely groundless fear that it would mean war with Britain. It is that which drives Benito in the arms of the Nazis, just as in OTL.

It doesn't hurt that the Allies are inherently interested in the status quo, while Italy wants to make itself great. If anyone is going to support Italy in going into Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece, or any number of places, it will be their fellow Fascists. Beyond that, there is also the ideological connection and the fact that the Nazi party was to some extent modeled on Benito's.

If the Spanish Civil War receives very little German support, wouldn't the Republicans/Socialists be much more likely to win? Indeed, what would the consequences of a pro-soviet Spain be?

Well, Nazi Germany contributed a relatively small amount even in OTL. Italy was the big supporter. I think Franco will still win the day, though Spain will likely be even more drained for it.

Finally, sorry to be so blunt but war never just "breaks out". And while Germany might stage an 'incident' I think that they are going to be revealed as the aggressors, particularly if there still is a Poland that can prove its case. Anyhow, I'd like to know--what does the world know about the incident? You've claimed that it seems like an even split, but one side had to have an order to attack the other. OTOH, if Poland "jumps the gun" that will really hurt their cause. Please elaborate on the actual shooting war itself--I think it would be critical to examine.

Very well. During the negotiations Germany slowly amasses a presence along the Polish border, mostly in Pomerania. This doesn't help tensions any, but it's only when talks stall that the deployment starts to look aggressive. Germany masses most of its military strength along Poland's northeastern frontier and blatantly begins preparations for an attack, including scouting flights over Polish soil. A tense stand-off ends a few days later when German troops in East Prussia move into Danzig. Now this is certainly not something they are supposed to do, but as a neutral city, Poland has no more right to defend it than Germany has to occupy it. Unfortunately, they do just that.

The Poles open fire almost as soon as the Germans cross the border, and fighting spills over the Polish and German borders. The next day the German forces in Pomerania advance to meet the Poles in the Corridor. The Poles acquit themselves well, but are steadily pushed back. It's all quite different from the rush and grab tactics of our TL's WWII and for that matter most of TTL's war. A mildly successful thrust into Silesia is repulsed, and at that point it's all over bar the shouting.

Thanks for your comments. It really does help with writing these things to have some intelligent conversation throughout. And how you could answer that Stalingrad nonsense without using an "elementary, my dear Watson," is beyond me.
 
Doesn't really do the job. The Red Army ultimately crushes Stalingrad through external pinchers. Sarin Gas might give the Germans a short term advantage in this battle, to be sure, but how important was Stalingrad? It would not fix Germany's failing fortunes in the deep Caucasus, and of course what this would mean is that Chemical weapons are going to proliferate throughout WW2.

Now that might put the Red Army off balance for a month, but 1942 isn't going to kill the Rodina even if Stalingrad falls--indeed, the German push south is a strategic blunder that can't easily be recovered from.

Finally, the critical ramifications is the use of chemical weapons combined with bombing civilian targets. This is a trade off that really favors the Allies, who would really be choking the life out of German cities. Sorry, but Chemical Weapons aren't going to do it for the Germans.

What should have been Hitler's move instead of Stalingrad? Destroy the Baku Oil Fields? Round Two for Moscow?

EDIT: Is there ANY way for Germany to triumph in a second war and become one of, or the, dominant military, economic, and political powers of Europe? It seems like alot of people think there was no way, no-how.
 
Well, there are problems all across the board for Germany by 1942. Them winning the war requires them dealing with their enemies. The Germans really have to go for Moscow again--that might reduce the Soviet War Economy enough to keep the momentum up. But even taking the Greater Moscow Area isn't going to kill the Soviets, who could and would scorch the earth and jack all of the industry they can eastward.

The goal of the 1942 offensive has to be a simple one--to beat up the Soviets enough that some kind of peace deal can be made between the Soviets and the Germans. It would be very far from the sweeping gains that Hitler wanted, although it might provide minimal territorial concessions. There is no real way for the Germans to beat the Soviets entirely in 1942, the best they can hope for is a victorious peace. Perhaps Brest-Litovsk again?

This might free up enough of the German Army to stop the USA and the UK from pwning them, but this also misses the point--the USA at full strength is an economic monster. And Pearl Harbor is the worst way to get a war with the USA--the USA is weakest when it declares war and doesn't win, not when someone attacks it without cause. Come 1945, the USA will start using nuclear weapons on Germany--all moral objections aside, is there really any difference between Dresden/Hamburg or Hiroshima/Nagasaki?

In 1946 the USA makes 6 more Atomic Weapons, 20 more follow in 1947. Germany is going to be a smoking ruin assuming that Hitler doesn't have any sanity at all. And yes, I think that all out atomic bombardment is game over for Germany. Germany might be building insane 1,000 ton monsters at this point, but what good does that do them when they are getting nuked?

In the end, the USA's Mighty friend the Atom blows Germany to a billion pieces, and unlike the Soviet Union's NKVD, the German Abwehr is in no position to pass on atomic secrets--indeed, the USA might choose to pass on some interesting disinformation to cause widespread panic.

By 1942, the Best Germany could hope for was some kind of negotiated peace or a draw down into a cold war posturing. Victory isn't possible but Survival might be.
 
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